Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 12800 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13075 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 2.15% rise in the week, a 1.55% rise in the same period of last month, and a 9.93% decrease in the price over the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. In terms of price, the barrel-loading and discharging negotiation price in Shanghai in East China is from 12000 to 12200 yuan/ton, down 500-300 yuan/ton from last Friday, the PM200 negotiation price is from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the aggregate MDI negotiation price in Japan and Korea is around 12000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday. Returning after the festival, the listed price of the factory is lower than the psychological expectation of the traders, the overall market mentality is frustrated, and the terminal demand is still poor. The main reasons are: due to weather in the north, outdoor construction is limited, the digestion speed of terminal raw materials is reduced; the stock of raw materials for end users is still sufficient, and the purchase intention of the market is depressed. Under the guidance of multiple bears, the offer of the manufacturer has fallen repeatedly to let the profit out, but the supply of factories is relatively tight, and the market falls slowly.

On the market side, as of Friday (10.12), the market of aggregate MDI in South China was weak and shocky. The overall atmosphere in the venue was still low and the turnover was very limited. Businessmen continued to let profits to deliver goods at sporadic low prices. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in PM200 refers to 13100-13300 yuan/ton. East China Polymerization MDI market is vulnerable to shocks, on-site inquiries to buy gas is not good, follow-up business downturn, business negotiations on low-end shipments, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of PM200 barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 13000-13200 yuan/ton. North China Polymerization MDI market is weak and tidy, on-site trading and buying gas is low, trading is rarely heard, traders talk about low-end shipments, low prices are also heard. At present, Shanghai barreled discharging quotation refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and PM200 barreled discharging quotation refers to 13000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene Market rose. Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil rose when a tanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company caught fire near Jeddah after being hit by “foreign objects”. Domestic market prices went up, but downstream styrene fell and downstream demand for pure benzene remained poor. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Aniline: in the week, domestic aniline Market negotiation was stable, Tianji device was restarted, Jinmao was about to restart, after market supply increased, it is expected that aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. The mainstream reference price in Shandong and North China is 7760 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in East China is about 7800 yuan/ton. (Note: The rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are counted according to the rise and fall of cash.)
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: At present, the factory controls the supply, but the northern thermal insulation plant is gradually ending, and the terminal is more ready, the market delivery or maintenance just needs to follow up, the overall mentality of the field operators is not good, individual profitability is safe. Business Cooperatives aggregate MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be weak and volatile next week, focusing on factory supply policy and market turnover.