I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China remained stable this week. On November 11, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1966 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the average ex factory price was 1966 yuan / ton, with stable price. On November 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 6.02% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: 55% of ammonium powder in Anhui Province has a factory quotation of 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: weak domestic sulfur market, weak downstream demand, weak enthusiasm of terminal purchase in the market, no news from the outside market, port inventory continues to increase instead of decreasing, and the industry is bearish on the future market. Phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory, and new orders are scarce.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%) There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate, the market price of raw materials has declined, the market demand is light, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The operating rate of the enterprise is 50%, and some of the enterprise’s devices are overhauled. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not active in buying goods, and they usually take the goods on demand. At present, the market has no good support, and the weak market continues. It is expected that the weak market of monoammonium phosphate will be dominated.