1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 11, 2019, the average price of China’s natural rubber (standard I) in the domestic market was 12250 yuan / ton, December 18 was the highest price in the middle of 12274 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the middle was 11970 yuan / ton in the 20th, down 2.29% in 10 days. In the 2019 all latex (Treasure Island) trend monitored by the business association, 12290 on December 6 is the highest price of the year so far, while 12274 yuan / ton on December 18 is the second highest price. From 18th to 20th of this month, the price of rubber fell by 300 yuan / ton in two days, which was a sharp decline with a large range. It is reported that the reason is that the local rubber volume in Kunming, Yunnan Province is in short supply, and the domestic import volume and planned warehousing volume are greatly increased, leading to a bearish market. The price of rubber dropped by 300 yuan / ton in three days from 18th to 20th, a drop of 2.44%.

Two. Trend analysis

Compared with the highest price, the price of natural rubber, which has fallen by three quarters, has been fluctuating for more than half a year from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton in the low price range around 2000 yuan / ton. As a whole, there are three times of high price: March 4, 12070 yuan / ton is the first high price, June 11, 12020 is the second high price, November 25, 12116 yuan / ton is the current high price in the year The second downward trough: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the first trough price, and 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price to this year. Since then, it has been April. Rubber prices fluctuated in the second half of the year, and experienced the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”. In addition, due to the impact of rainstorms and fungal diseases in Southeast Asia, the production of natural rubber was limited, and the market of natural rubber rose to a certain extent. In November, China’s domestic region began to enter the cut-off period, and the fund gradually favored natural rubber at this time. The price of natural rubber rose sharply at the beginning of the second half of the year, and the price of natural rubber finally stopped falling and rose. The fund was concerned Degree of increase, disk strength pull up. Since then, the trend has been fluctuating. After a short-term correction, it began to rise again in December, reaching the highest price level in 2019 on the 6th. The market generally believes that the production reduction in 2019 will be inevitable due to the impact of drought, diseases and insect pests in domestic and foreign production areas, which coincides with the domestic cut season and is bullish on the market. On the 18th, hearing the news of warehouse explosion, the domestic inventory rose month on month, and the import volume and general trade warehouse planned to increase in December , the accumulation of Treasury continued to lead to a sharp drop in prices, so far prices have continued to fluctuate slightly downward.

3、 Future forecast

In general, the rubber price in December 2019 rose and fell in a short period. In terms of future market trend, domestic futures delivery inventory is at a relatively low level in this year because it is still the domestic production reduction season and there is no big change in downstream demand. The possibility of a sharp decline is very small. After the rapid decline of the market, the inventory rebounds demand.