1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose continuously in the first ten days of January. At the beginning of ten days (January 1), the average price of enterprises is ten day low price, 6698 yuan / ton; at the end of ten days (January 10), the average price of enterprises is ten day high price, 7079 yuan / ton, and the ten day increase has reached 5.68%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Product: affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. It was stable on January 5 and 6, rising on January 7 and 8, and maintaining stability on January 9. Today, it continues to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 7050 yuan / ton. In the near future, some domestic dehydrogenation units will be shut down or the load will be reduced. A dehydrogenation unit in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance, which makes propylene supply tight.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is unstable, and the fluctuation range is obvious, which has a certain impact on propylene market.
Recently, PP declined slightly, with a 10 day drop of 1.70%, and the profit margin declined, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.
In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a ten day increase of 0.41%. In the later period, the market may be stable and positive, with some positive impact on propylene.
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In recent days, the price of propylene oxide rose slightly and remained stable after falling 4.61%, with a 10 day drop of 2.80%. In the short term, the finishing operation may be blocked, with limited impact on propylene.
In the first ten days, the price of epichlorohydrin fluctuated, with an increase of 0.47% in ten days and an amplitude of 3.29% in ten days. In the future, it may still be dominated by weak finishing operation, with limited impact on propylene.
In recent days, the domestic n-butanol rose rapidly after falling, with a ten day increase of 1.71% and a ten day amplitude of 2.89%. It is expected that there will still be shocks in the future, which is good for propylene.
The price of octanol declined slightly, 0.96% in ten days, which was negative for propylene.
The phenol Market in Shandong Province rose slightly in the first ten days of January, up 2.93% in ten days, which had a positive impact on propylene.
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The acetone market in Shandong Province decreased significantly in the first ten days of January, with a drop of 5.44% in ten days. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term, which will have a certain negative impact on propylene.
Isopropanol market prices rose all the way in the near future, up 4.81% in ten days. It is still possible to rise in the future, which has a certain positive impact on propylene market.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been rising continuously in recent days. The incident in the Middle East has shaken the international crude oil price. The shutdown of domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units has led to the shortage of propylene supply. Although the downstream operating rate has declined and the profit has decreased, the market price of propylene may still rise in recent days.
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