1、 Price trend
This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.
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On February 16, the lead commodity index was 86.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.40% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.00% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Market trend analysis
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Domestic market: this week, Lunzhou lead rose by 3.55%, while Shanghai lead fluctuated broadly between 13800-14400, with a weekly cumulative increase of more than 1.5%. The spot market continues to rise this week driven by futures prices. Affected by transportation and delayed resumption of work, there are only a limited number of manufacturers currently operating. The overall supply of goods in the spot market is relatively tight, with fewer quotations from traders. The main market supply is Shanghai Jinsha lead, Guangdong Nanhua lead, Hunan Jingui and a few other brands, with fewer transactions. The return to work of renewable lead enterprises was delayed this week. Except for the regular production of some large enterprises in the market, other enterprises are all off work.
3、 Future prospects
After the completion of next week’s delivery, because the overall supply is still increasing and the consumption is afraid that under the premise that the logistics cannot be fully opened, even if the resumption of work is gradually increasing everywhere, the activity of the spot will not be substantially improved, and the futures market performance of the basic metals will continue to fluctuate in the range, and under the signal that the epidemic has not obtained the inflection point, it is difficult for long-term trading to take a unilateral lead Restricted by logistics factors and slightly supported by prices, the company will focus on logistics and resumption of work next week. It is expected to fluctuate between 14000-14500 yuan / ton this week.
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