1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 5, the average price of n-butanol was 5466.67 yuan / ton (including tax). At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the end of February (February 29). On March 4, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.11% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the end of February and the beginning of March, the domestic n-butanol market has been in stable operation for the time being, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair. The downstream users have started to gradually improve, bargain hunting and replenishment, and the factory inventory has been reduced. At present, the market volume in March is not significantly higher than that at the end of February. The new single negotiation is common, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. The price of core users supplied by mainstream factories is slightly low, and the downstream raw material inventory is slowly digested. There is a lot of pressure on the market to offer at high prices. Up to March 5, the atmosphere of n-butanol market activity is general, supported by costs, and the market is mainly in stable operation. The quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Industry is stable temporarily, and the reference quotation is about 5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is temporarily stable, with reference to 5300 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical n-butanol is 5500 yuan / ton in North China, 5700 yuan / ton in East China and 5850 yuan / ton in South China.

Industry chain: in March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of the reform began. On the first day, some enterprises’ prices rose slightly. On the second day, the prices rose slightly. On the third day, most enterprises generally rose. On the fourth day, the prices also increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, crude oil and polypropylene futures are rising and supply is tight, which makes the downstream procurement active. However, the production and inventory of propylene plant are low, and the market supply is short. It is expected that the price of propylene may rise.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the high price negotiation of the n-butanol market is limited at present, and it is expected that the low-end consolidation and operation of the market will be dominated in the short term.