According to the data monitoring of business society, as of April 26, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 763 yuan / ton. Compared with April 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 740 yuan / ton), the price increased by 23 yuan / ton, or 3.15%, and 53 yuan / ton, or 7.51%, compared with March 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 710 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, the domestic phosphorus ore market mainly operated in a high and stable manner after the overall rise at the beginning of the month. In April, with the advent of spring ploughing season, the market of phosphate fertilizer at the downstream of phosphate rock terminal performed well, and the supply in the phosphate rock field continued to be tight. In addition, with the good performance of downstream demand and the support of both supply and demand, on the 6th of the month, the domestic phosphate ore generally ushered in an upward operation, with the overall upward range of 20-30 yuan / ton. Under the tight supply in some areas, it dominated the users of supply contracts. Then, the phosphate ore market operated at a stable high level, and the confidence of the operators in the field performed well, As of April 26, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou was around 700-790 yuan / ton, and the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi was around 750-790 yuan / ton. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

Products, Region, Grade, Price., remarks

Phosphate rock, Guizhou, 30%., 700-790 yuan / ton, Factory price

Phosphate rock, Guangxi, 30%., 750-790 yuan / ton, Factory price

Phosphate rock, Guangxi, 28%., 680-730 yuan / ton, Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since April, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price has mainly increased slightly in the overall shock. According to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37000 yuan / ton as of April 25, up 0.68% compared with April 1 (36750 yuan / ton). On April 24, Sichuan Mabian Longtai phosphorus Power Co., Ltd. made the latest quotation of 38000 yuan / ton for superior yellow phosphorus, which was discussed in detail.

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall support surface of the domestic phosphorus ore market is still relatively stable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market in China will continue to operate stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8950 yuan / ton on April 24, down 20 yuan / ton from 8970 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.22% during the week and up 0.85% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market fluctuated this week, the price rose at the beginning of the week, and then fluctuated and fell. The price trend in the week was down, down 0.22%. This week, the disk fluctuated, the futures price fell, driving the trend of spot price. Moreover, the price of raw calcium carbide fell by 1.22%, and the supporting force of cost fell. In addition, the impact of public health events in various parts of China continued, the logistics was still limited, the construction of downstream enterprises declined, and the purchasing enthusiasm decreased. It only maintained the demand for just needed replenishment. The offer of PVC enterprises followed the market, adjusted in a narrow range, and the actual transactions were mostly negotiated. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is stable at about 4000-4100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8700-9250 yuan / ton. For the external price, CFR China fell 50 to US $1340 / ton, Southeast Asia fell 50 to US $1420 / ton, and CFR India fell 70 to US $1560 / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 31, 2022 to April 21, 2022, domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle, with the largest increase in the week of February 7 and the largest decline in the week of February 21, and then fluctuated in a narrow range.

International crude oil: on April 22, the price of international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $102.07/barrel, down US $1.72 or 1.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.15/barrel, down US $1.10 or 1.0%. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations and limiting the decline in oil prices..

Ethylene, on April 13, the external ethylene market showed a downward trend this week. The price of ethylene in Asia was stable. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1306-1316 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1966-1977 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1511-1520 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 21st, the price was 624-643 yuan / ton. This week, the trading atmosphere in the external ethylene market was general, the transaction was poor, and the market continued to decline.

Calcium carbide, in late April, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, the downstream PVC market showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late April.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials has been reduced, the cost support has been weakened, coupled with the limited downstream demand, and the overall trading of the market is tepid. It is expected that the PVC market will operate weakly in the short term.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of the 24th, the average price in the domestic market was 36166.67 yuan / ton, down 6.47% compared with that at the beginning of the week. The transaction price of magnesium ingots was concentrated at 37000-38000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of magnesium ingots reversed sharply. At the beginning of the week, the price of magnesium fell rapidly, and the market was under obvious pressure. On Wednesday, it began to stop falling and rebound. The news of the purchase and storage of Yu magnesium boosted the willingness of the magnesium plant to stabilize the market. The magnesium plant merchants also actively shipped cash according to their own factory inventory, If there is a lack of stock, the quotation will not be made temporarily.

Export side

According to the statistics of China’s customs, China exported 51300 tons of various metal magnesium products in January, an increase of 26.1% month on month and 21.3% year on year; From January to March, China exported 128900 tons of various magnesium products, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year. The overall export volume of metal magnesium products in the first quarter showed an increasing trend month by month. Part of the export growth in the first quarter was caused by the delivery of overseas orders years ago.

Factory aspect

According to the news of Yulin magnesium collection and storage on Wednesday, the magnesium factory merchants took advantage of the situation to adjust the price. Although there were few high price transactions, the magnesium factory had little capital pressure and strong willingness to stabilize the price. The market transaction price was gradually picking up, and some magnesium factories did not make a quotation temporarily in view of the inventory situation and the current market situation.

Supply and demand

At present, the confidence of the market supply side has recovered. Although the demand side is still limited, many departments of the state guarantee transportation and major materials, which can alleviate the poor transportation situation to a certain extent. At the same time, in the psychology of buying up rather than buying down, downstream customers who waited and waited in the early stage entered the market for procurement, some rigid demand was released, and near the May Day holiday, downstream customers began to prepare goods in advance.

Future forecast

On the whole, after the impact of the news of collection and storage in the market in the middle of the week, the magnesium price first decreased and then increased this week, but there are few high price transactions. At the same time, considering that the logistics and transportation are still in the slow recovery, the downstream demand is still weak, the driving force for the sharp rise of magnesium ingots in the short term is insufficient, and the current market quotation performance is relatively chaotic, and some magnesium factories do not ship temporarily. In the short term, it is expected that the magnesium market will maintain a strong trend.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was sorted out and operated at a high level in mid April, and the spot price was generally deadlocked. As of April 15, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5050 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market is OK, the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises remains low, stable at less than 50%, and the on-site supply continues to be in short supply. Recently, the national reserve of potash fertilizer has continued to release goods and stabilize the price, the price of Salt Lake and cangge potassium chloride is high, and the impact of domestic health events on transportation is gradually decreasing. The high price of potassium chloride also supports the processing potassium sulfate enterprises. The situation in Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe is still uncertain. The transportation of potash fertilizer producing areas has been affected. At present, the arrival of border trade and ports is limited. In terms of demand, it is currently in the release stage of spring farming demand, but the trading of potassium sulfate has slowed down recently, resulting in a game between on-site supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong in mid April, and the market of potassium chloride is high and sideways. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is relatively strong, the follow-up on the demand side slows down, and the supply remains compact. The improvement of border trade and port transportation and arrival is limited. It is expected that the price of domestic potassium sulfate may still be strong due to the advantages of the supply side in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. As of April 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 8150.00 yuan / ton, down 0.61% from 8200.00 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the correlation statistics of business society that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.941, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell this week, with the price of acetic acid falling by 3.07%. Affected by control, the logistics and transportation were not smooth, the shipment of acetic acid manufacturers was blocked, the demand was weak, the high price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business society, the methanol price fluctuated and fell this week. On April 18, the methanol price was 2805.00 yuan / ton, down 7.20% from 3022.50 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. At the end of the heating season, the high price in the global energy market fell, and the domestic methanol price followed the decline. This week, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the high global energy price fell this week, the price of methanol fell, the negative production of acetic acid enterprises decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price increased. Affected by control, acetic acid enterprises had difficulty in shipping, the downstream demand for acetic acid was weak, and the downward pressure of acetic acid increased; The price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted near the process cost line. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride fell this week, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

This week’s spot tin market price (4.8-4.15) fluctuated. The average price of the domestic market was 341430 yuan / ton last weekend and 343830 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.7% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 15th week of 2022 (4.11-4.15), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (10.71%), zinc (3.15%) and silver (2.77%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dysprosium (- 11.07%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.39%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.47%.

Tin futures market on April 15, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai tin, 343000 yuan / ton- 760, 3045 tons

London tin, US $43400 / ton- 130., 2665 tons

In terms of futures market: at the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure and the overall performance was poor. The price of Lunxi was dragged down. After that, the fundamental crude oil rose again, which boosted the market mentality and the tin market rebounded.

In terms of supply and demand, the transportation in Shanghai is still limited, and the overall trading of the market is weak. On the supply side, the market expects that with the improvement of the import side in April, the overall supply will improve to a certain extent after some Indonesian sources enter the market. On the demand side, the previously affected enterprises in Shenzhen have resumed production recently, but the downstream demand has not fully recovered due to various factors. Therefore, the market is mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected that the tin price will remain high and volatile in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 14133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.30%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde prices rose slightly this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 14800 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 14500 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 8494.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8441.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.63%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 17666.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.75%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late April may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support weakened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

From April 8 to April 15, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 8600 yuan / ton last weekend to 8387.5 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 2.47%.

Price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from April 8 to April 15 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on April 8, Price on April 15, Rise and fall

East China, 8500～8550., 8350～8400.,- one hundred and fifty

Shandong Province, 8300～8400., 8050～8150.,- two hundred and fifty

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 16, 8200.,-400

March 22, 8400.,+200

March 24, 8600.,+200

April 12, 8450.,-150

On April 12, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 8450 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8303 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8350 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8550 yuan / ton.

On April 14, the price of international crude oil futures closed up. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $106.95/barrel, up US $2.70 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.70/barrel, up US $2.92 or 2.7%. As of Thursday, oil prices rose for three consecutive times, rising nearly 9% on the weekly line. It is reported that the EU may draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has surfaced again, and the oil price has been strongly supported.

Crude oil prices first fell and then rose this week. After falling on Monday, they began to rebound on Tuesday. Although crude oil continued to rise and cost support strengthened, due to public health events in various parts of China, the operating load in the downstream of pure benzene is low, and the overall demand for pure benzene is relatively light. Therefore, although the fundamentals are good, the downstream performance is poor. The rise of pure benzene price this week is blocked, and the price is mainly sideways. The mainstream price of domestic pure benzene this week is 8250-8550 yuan / ton. The price of hydrogenated benzene is mainly affected by pure benzene. Among them, the shipment of enterprises in Shandong is poor and the price is low. The hydrogenated benzene market is also under pressure and the price is low as a whole. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8450 yuan / ton within the week, which once again affected the market mentality. At present, the overall market trading is general, and the fundamentals are good and the support is limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

The consolidation operation of the domestic MIBK market has not changed much this week, and the actual order has declined in a narrow range. The market reference offer in East China is around 13500-13800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market mixed offer in East China was 13966 yuan / ton on April 4 and 13900 yuan / ton on April 11, down 0.48% this week. On the whole, the market this week was affected by logistics and transportation, and the actual orders were limited, and the overall weakness was adjusted.

Raw material acetone market declined in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of acetone market in East China was 5650 yuan / ton on April 4 and 5600 yuan / ton on April 11, a decrease of 0.88% during the month. The decline after the festival was mainly due to the increase of shipment pressure under the influence of logistics and the pressure of cargo holders. Up to now, the offer in East China market is about 5550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 5750 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 5700 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

This week, Zhenjiang Li Changrong plant was restarted on the 5th, and the supply was gradually restored. There is no pressure on the inventory of other factories for the time being. From the perspective of East China, the logistics pressure is still large, the raw materials in some regions are difficult to enter and exit, the pressure of goods holders is large, the mentality is under pressure, the downstream follow-up is limited, and the negotiation is deadlocked and goes down.

From the perspective of business society, the market is still in a narrow range of shock operation. At present, MIBK enterprise inventory is low and the short-term supply pressure is not large. If the transaction price between the factory and antioxidant rises in the later stage, the market confidence will be supported. However, under the influence of logistics, the demand side is under pressure, and the pressure of terminal shipment is still large. It is expected that there will be a stalemate in the short term.

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market fluctuated upward, the overall market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then restraining, and the price was stable as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6698.25 yuan / ton on April 1 and 6858.25 yuan / ton on April 8, with an increase of 2.39% and 50.05% compared with the same period last year.

As of April 8, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, April 8th

East China, . 6450-6850 yuan / ton

North China, 6650-6900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6700-6950 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6000-6500 yuan / ton

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market was dominated on the whole, and the market price of propane in Shandong increased first and then decreased. At present, the positive market is limited. With the introduction of CP price in April, propylene butane rose, bringing obvious support to the domestic market. However, the international crude oil price is mainly volatile, and the benefits brought by the cost are limited. At present, there is little change in market supply and weak demand. Due to the impact of public health time in Shandong, the shipment situation has been blocked, which has brought some resistance to the rising market. At present, the trend of the northern market is stronger than that of the southern market.

Saudi Aramco announced in April 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 940 USD / T, up 45 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 960 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the introduction of CP price rise in April has brought some support to the market. The domestic propane market is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but the benefits brought to the market by the fluctuation of international crude oil trend are limited. In addition, the terminal demand is weak and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited. It is expected that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.