Aluminum fluoride prices fell

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell after the festival. As of February 11, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.30% from 13375 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of raw materials fell, and the market of aluminum fluoride fell after the festival.

The price of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite was weak and stable temporarily after the festival, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 3.02%. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose after the festival, up 6.26% this week. During the Spring Festival, there are many exports of electrolytic aluminum and the accumulated inventory is limited. Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the production of northern aluminum plant is reduced and the output of aluminum ingots is declining. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation in Guangxi and other places is blocked, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is reduced, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates and rises, the downstream market rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid and the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased after the festival. Affected by the Winter Olympics and the epidemic, the start-up of electrolytic aluminum manufacturers decreased and the demand for aluminum fluoride decreased. After the festival, the start-up of aluminum fluoride manufacturers resumed one after another, the supply of aluminum fluoride was sufficient, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased. In the future, the cost is falling, the supply is sufficient, the demand is low, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and the rising power is insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall weakly in the future.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1453 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate fell on February 10, down 2.46% compared with the previous trading day. Today, the transaction atmosphere of ammonium sulfate Market is poor, and some enterprises cut prices. The market of coking grade ammonium sulfate is stable and the shipment is acceptable. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate has been lowered, the market performance is poor, and the overall market is weak. Enterprises in the industry are mainly on the sidelines and adjust prices slightly.

Future forecast: the price of ammonium sulfate will decline slightly in the short term.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (February 9): 17000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on February 9, the domestic propylene glycol market rose. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 17000 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price rose 1367 yuan / ton, or 8.74%. On the 9th, the domestic propylene glycol market was strong and rising. Some propylene glycol factories were closed without reporting, the downstream demand was good, and the trading atmosphere was harmonious.

Future forecast: at present, after the Spring Festival, the propylene glycol factory has a compact order arrangement and the market is improving. The propylene glycol datagrapher of the business society believes that the propylene glycol market is dominated by high-level and strong operation in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (February 7): 4216.67 yuan / ton

On February 7, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly, down 16.66 yuan / ton or 0.39% compared with that on January 28 before the festival, up 38.25% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal is adjusted at a high level. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. However, the downstream PVC market has continued to decline recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide is good, and the downstream demand is general.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4200 yuan / ton.

In January, the domestic MIBK market continued to operate in a downturn, and the overall situation was continuous downward. The market reference offer in East China was around 12600-13000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer in East China was 12600-12800 yuan / ton and that in South China was 12800-13000 yuan / ton on January 27. The market trading was cold in January, the market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the mainstream market was weak to adjust, The actual order can be discussed.

On the raw material side, the acetone market was stable and upward, with frequent ups and downs in January as a whole, but it showed an upward trend in the whole month. The domestic East China market was quoted at 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 and 5600 yuan / ton on January 27, up 3.7% in the month. So far, the negotiation price in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 5750 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 5700 yuan / ton.

The downstream rubber additives market is flat, the market is up, but the transaction surface is not enough, and the accelerator will not fall as a whole. However, at present, the inventory of downstream tire enterprises is high, the operating rate of the industry has declined, and the demand side has been dragged down.

From the perspective of business community, MIBK market operates stably in the short term before and after the Spring Festival, supported by the raw material end. With the approaching of the long holiday and the recent impact of the epidemic, the logistics and transportation are limited, and the mentality of traders is flat. At the end of the month, MIBK market mainly maintains the overall consolidation and operation.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4566.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 166.67 yuan / ton, down 3.65%, up 38.22% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend over the weekend. On January 23, the calcium carbide commodity index was 115.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.68% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 107.75% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 4500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quotation this weekend was 4350 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton higher than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which has increased by 80 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which has increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this week. This week, the price of PVC increased from 8300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8460.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.93%, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%. PVC prices rose slightly this week, mainly sorting out. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The rising power of downstream products was insufficient, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late January, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide was good, and the downstream PVC market rose slightly, but the increase was not large. The market was difficult to improve due to consolidation, and the downstream demand was weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 25, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market was mainly stable, and the price of white carbon black was stable and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

This week, the mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6750 yuan / ton, and the price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed significantly. The overall market is in balance between supply and demand, mainly for just needed procurement, mainly for contract customers. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable, medium and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market is temporarily stable, the upstream cost support is weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increased, the supply is reduced, the downstream demand is weakened, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the overall market is weak.

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly operate smoothly, and the fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

In 2021, the dichloromethane market rose slowly in the early stage and fluctuated sharply in the later stage. According to the monitoring of business agency, the outbound price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 5972 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 70.64% over the beginning of the year; The low point of the year was 2720 yuan / ton on February 2, and the high point of the year was 8587 yuan / ton on October 16, with an amplitude of 215.72%.

The dichloromethane market fell slightly in January. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream construction started lower, the demand was weak, and the enterprises had a strong willingness to go to the warehouse. Under the supply-demand game, the market price fell.

After the Spring Festival from February to March, the start-up of downstream refrigerants, medicine, diluents and adhesives gradually increased, and the demand was driven strongly; In addition, some enterprises stop and reduce the load before and after the Spring Festival, and the supply side is tight; The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side formed support. The price of dichloromethane rose from 2720 yuan / ton in early January to 3930 yuan / ton on March 20, an increase of 44.49%.

From April to August, Guangxi Jinyi, Fuqiang and other methane chloride units were put into operation successively, and the pressure on the supply side increased to suppress the rising trend of dichloromethane; However, on the one hand, the downstream just needs support, coupled with the gradual rise of raw material prices, which brings upward pressure to the dichloromethane market; Dichloromethane rose in the market shock under comprehensive factors. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane was 3930 yuan / ton on March 20 and 4055 yuan / ton on September 10, an increase of 3.18%; During the period, the high point was 4263 yuan / ton on May 17 and the low point was 3460 yuan / ton on April 22, up 23.22%.

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy consumption” was launched in September and the global energy crisis began in October. In the early stage, the domestic enterprises concentrated on reducing the burden of methane chloride units in the early stage, the industrial operating rate was as low as 4-50%, and the market supply was tight; Later, it encountered market speculation caused by the accidental parking of an enterprise, and the price of dichloromethane formed a “double peak” form in the second half of the year in September and October. After October, with the increase of the start-up of domestic methane chloride units, the price of dichloromethane gradually fell, but the overall supply is still tight, driving the price of dichloromethane to fluctuate at the high level in November and December.

In 2021, the domestic methane chloride plant will be started.

According to the business agency, the start-up of domestic methane chloride units in 2021 was slightly lower at the beginning of the year, higher in the middle of the year, reached the low point of the year in September and October, and rebounded at the end of the year. It is reflected from the side that the supply side of dichloromethane is under great pressure from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. The supply is tight in September and October, and the cost side affects the pattern of low before high in the market price of dichloromethane.

In 2021, affected by the cost side, the price of methanol rose and fell back. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of methanol at the beginning of the year was 2310 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 2375 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% over the beginning of the year; During the year, the low point was 2240 yuan / ton and the high point was 4480 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 100%. The cost side has strong support for dichloromethane in the early stage and weak at the end of the year.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that on the basis of the significant easing of the shortage of power coal, there is little probability that the raw material methanol will rise sharply again in 2022, and the driving force of cost side will become weaker; No new unit will be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane in the later stage will be mainly affected by downstream demand and unit maintenance. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate in 2022.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 21, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 16700.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, up 3.09% compared with the same period last week. In the short term, the DMF trend is stable, medium and strong.

This week, the DMF market is rising in a narrow range, the price is the main player, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price increases by 3.09%. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Upstream methanol is mainly stable. The market price of methanol in central Shandong is reported to be 2580-2600 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong is reported to be 2700 yuan / ton and the factory provides cash exchange. The transaction is relatively general and wait-and-see for the time being.

On January 20, the chemical index was 1123 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 19.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 87.79% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

Last week (1.10-14), the market of liquid ammonia was stable, mainly in Shandong and Hebei, and the price rose in East and North China due to the decline of ammonia. According to the monitoring of business society, as of January 14, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.38%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4000-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, and the price of liquid ammonia was stable. The ammonia release in North China, Northwest China and central China decreased, and the price mainly rebounded. The amount of ammonia released in southwest and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the price was weak and stable.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. Last week (1.10-14) rebounded strongly. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly rebound of thermal coal exceeded 10%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of origin has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved. The rise of coal prices led to the follow-up of methanol and urea in the downstream, and liquid ammonia followed up slightly.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer continue to improve. Urea rose 2.7% in the week. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of urea in some areas is blocked and the local supply is tight. There was centralized goods preparation in the downstream before the superposition Festival, and the demand was enlarged. Among them, industrial demand is mainly just demand, and agricultural demand has improved slightly. Winter wheat Topdressing and fertilizer winter storage accelerated in some areas, and dealers followed up bargain hunting. Terminal compound fertilizer also has support, with increased enthusiasm for goods preparation and increased market volume.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that at present, the liquid ammonia industry chain has improved slightly, the price of natural gas in the upstream of the gas head is weak, and the price decline is obvious. However, the performance of coal head is relatively strong, especially at present, the downstream support is obvious. The figure shows that many downstream products have increased in varying degrees.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the cost side may continue to support the ammonia price. It is expected that the rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong in the near future, but the preparation before the festival is over, and the festive atmosphere is getting thicker or involving the ammonia price.