Last week (1.10-14), the market of liquid ammonia was stable, mainly in Shandong and Hebei, and the price rose in East and North China due to the decline of ammonia. According to the monitoring of business society, as of January 14, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.38%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4000-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, and the price of liquid ammonia was stable. The ammonia release in North China, Northwest China and central China decreased, and the price mainly rebounded. The amount of ammonia released in southwest and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the price was weak and stable.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. Last week (1.10-14) rebounded strongly. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly rebound of thermal coal exceeded 10%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of origin has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved. The rise of coal prices led to the follow-up of methanol and urea in the downstream, and liquid ammonia followed up slightly.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer continue to improve. Urea rose 2.7% in the week. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of urea in some areas is blocked and the local supply is tight. There was centralized goods preparation in the downstream before the superposition Festival, and the demand was enlarged. Among them, industrial demand is mainly just demand, and agricultural demand has improved slightly. Winter wheat Topdressing and fertilizer winter storage accelerated in some areas, and dealers followed up bargain hunting. Terminal compound fertilizer also has support, with increased enthusiasm for goods preparation and increased market volume.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that at present, the liquid ammonia industry chain has improved slightly, the price of natural gas in the upstream of the gas head is weak, and the price decline is obvious. However, the performance of coal head is relatively strong, especially at present, the downstream support is obvious. The figure shows that many downstream products have increased in varying degrees.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the cost side may continue to support the ammonia price. It is expected that the rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong in the near future, but the preparation before the festival is over, and the festive atmosphere is getting thicker or involving the ammonia price.