1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1428 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1490.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.39% and a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. On October 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 115.75, up 2.12 points compared with yesterday, 25.61% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 73.05% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The main reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke is the shortage of supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, and the market transaction is better. The supply of medium and high sulfur coke is insufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is rising.

Upstream: in the short term, the oil market will still be suppressed by demand, and the supply side will not be favorable. At present, OPEC + production reduction is still in accordance with the agreement reached before, and there is still no new policy trend. Moreover, the United States is in the middle of the general election, and there are great differences between the two parties in the implementation of the new fiscal stimulus policy. Considering comprehensively, oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future.

Downstream: in the near future, the carbon market shipment is OK, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum high-level shock has played a supporting role. However, the profits of carbon enterprises are not high, so it is expected to operate under pressure in the near future. Metal silicon market because of the strong sales sentiment of enterprises, the price may rise steadily. In terms of steam coal, the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, and the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has a large inventory, but the winter heating season is coming, and the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. It is estimated that the short-term steam coal price will still be dominated by the overall operation within the range.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 41 th week (10.12-10.16) of 2020, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are methanol (5.75%), liquefied natural gas (4.17%) and liquefied gas (1.62%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (- 1.20%), MTBE (- 1.10%) and naphtha (- 0.37%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.77%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current price of petroleum coke is rising due to tight supply of goods, and some manufacturers’ maintenance is good for the petroleum coke. It is predicted that the trend of Petroleum Coke will be better in the short term or continue. The specific situation depends on the demand of downstream market.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4500 yuan / ton, which was stable.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4300-4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. The market of paraformaldehyde is acceptable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1825 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (10.12), and 1930 yuan / ton at the weekend (10.16), with an increase of 5.75% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe that: raw material methanol price preference, paraformaldehyde may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 19, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 11, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%.

At the beginning of last week, the market remained stable after the low-end price of propylene glycol moved up

At the beginning of last week, the domestic propylene glycol market was in shock and consolidation operation. The low-end quotation was adjusted upward, and some high-end offers moved down a few times. The upward and downward ranges were limited. The fluctuation adjustment was within the range, with the adjustment range of 200-300 yuan / ton. The main reason for the shock finishing was the high offer pressure under the inverted hanging of propylene glycol cost due to the high raw materials, and After a small market shock, the market as a whole is weak and stable. The downstream demand is general, and the end users continue to be rigid demand. Strong resistance to high prices. The sales of foreign trade parts are not so good.

As of October 19, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was referred to 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 11, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%.

Upstream, nearly a week, propylene oxide Market high stability, mainly wait and see. According to the data of the business club, as of October 16, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 18966.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 20.04% compared with September 16, and increased by 80.06% compared with the same period last year. At present, there is little change in the market fundamentals, the pace of trading is slowing down, the downstream on-demand procurement is the main, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the manufacturer’s offer is stable.

Internationally, on October 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.12/barrel, up $0.16. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the main contract settlement price at 42.93 US dollars / barrel, down 0.23 US dollars. On Friday, the oil price was adjusted in a small range, and the economic recovery prospect caused by the epidemic situation was not clear.

The shortage of demand is a hard injury, which will still be sorted out in the short term

The downstream demand can only maintain rigid demand, and large orders are less, so the demand is still the biggest resistance to the continuous upward trend of propylene glycol, and the industry is lack of confidence. It is expected that the price of propylene glycol will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply. As of October 16, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 8466 yuan / ton, a sharp decline of 5.93% compared with the beginning of the month and a decrease of 1.93% compared with the same period of last month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on October 15 was 81.64, down 0.63 points compared with yesterday, 33.99% lower than 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and 59.52% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020..

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply this week, with the decline of more than 1000 yuan / ton in various regions. Due to the rapid recovery of maleic anhydride plant operation compared with the downstream market, resulting in excess supply in the industry. In addition, the resistance of the downstream to the high price of Maleic anhydride in the early stage, the recent price reduction is obvious. At present, there are about 6500 yuan / ton of solid anhydride in Shandong, 6800 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 6500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 6600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 7000 yuan / ton in South China.

Industrial chain: the hydrobenzene market is rising steadily, enterprises mainly implement contracts, and the supply of goods in the industry is tight, at present, it is about 3320 yuan / ton; the production recovery of downstream resin industry is less than expected, the overall demand is soft, and the price support for maleic anhydride is insufficient, and the horizontal arrangement is mainly in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business club believe that the current maleic anhydride market continues to decline, the transaction volume in the industry is light, and the transaction price of sporadic small orders is still low. In addition, the price mentality of the downstream market is obvious, and it is expected that the weakness will be difficult to change in a short period of time.

Commodity index: the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on September 29 was 86.87, up 1.16 points compared with yesterday, 20.31% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 3.02% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data, in September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% first stabilized and then rose, stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half. On the 1st day, the mainstream price was 1571.43 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, it was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.27%. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the price has been raised continuously in recent years, and some manufacturers have increased about 150 yuan / ton recently.

Upstream raw material: hydrochloric acid: according to the introduction of polyaluminum manufacturers in Henan Province, the purchase price of hydrochloric acid in Henan Province rose to 180 yuan / ton this month. It is not that they can get the goods at any time, but they have to queue up. The rising price of hydrochloric acid has caused great cost pressure on polyaluminum chloride this month, and the export price of polyaluminum chloride will rise immediately. Calcium powder: according to the polyaluminum manufacturer, the price of calcium powder increased by about 80 yuan / ton in August, but the price rise was not obvious this month, and the pressure of the cost rise of polyaluminum chloride remained at the level of August.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride has increased obviously, which is mainly due to the continuous rise in the cost of raw materials such as calcium powder and hydrochloric acid. The demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has begun to increase with the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection.

Industry: in September, the price of raw materials such as calcium powder purchased by some enterprises increased, which affected the ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride; generally speaking, the downstream demand of water treatment industry did not enter the actual sales peak season, and the market rise was mainly subject to the pressure of cost side, and the market had certain expectations for the future trend of water treatment industry.

After market forecast: the analysis of the business agency believes that the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics. According to the manufacturer, the cost rises and the factory price rises in this season every year. For the future market, the manufacturers believe that the water treatment demand will have a certain support under the influence of the following heating and environmental protection factors. The future trend of polyaluminum chloride will be stable and bullish, when seize this season’s market every year.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market is weak this week. As of September 25, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.45% compared with the beginning of the week, and 8.63% higher than that of August 25, according to the data of business club. This week, the raw material propylene (Shandong) market slightly up and down, epichlorohydrin supply has not changed much. Shippers mainly deliver orders, and the downstream just needs to replenish before the festival, but the high-end price transaction is slightly weak, and the market is stable and weak. As the downstream replenishment is coming to an end, the market atmosphere turns light.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / ton, excellent products; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-26

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / T national standard 99.9-2020-09-25

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. $11500 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-25

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 11500 yuan / ton national standard 99.9-2020-09-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd.? 11500 yuan / ton; 99.9% Min: September 24, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. $11000 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-23

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly this week (9.21-9.25) and then rose slightly, with the initial price of 7467 yuan / ton; at the weekend, the weekly high price was 7469 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.02%; on Wednesday and Thursday, the weekly low price was 7465 yuan / ton, and the weekly amplitude was only 0.05%.

Downstream epoxy resin, on September 25, the downstream epoxy resin shock finishing operation, the raw material price weakened, the cost support weakened, but the factory spot supply was limited, the new single offer remained high.

3、 Future forecast

The analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business agency believe that the recent high price of raw material propylene, strong cost support, approaching double knots, the market atmosphere has been weakened. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

At present, after the domestic styrene price falls, the overall operation is between 5330-5435 yuan / ton. The average price of EPS was 7937 yuan / ton, and the price fell weakly. The supply of EPS goods increased, but the replenishment of traders was still not smooth.

2、 Market analysis

The supply of goods in the market has increased, the downstream goods are still not smooth, the tight supply situation still needs time to ease, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the on-site trading is general. EPS Market: EPS market price is stable, Wuxi Xingda EPS ex factory price, common material quotation is 7800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hailong EPS is 7850 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

EPS market business operation is still cautious, Dongguan area production or further increase, EPS production or a small increase, it is expected that EPS prices will be dominated by weak shocks.

1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulphuric acid in Shandong is stable temporarily, with the quotation of 392.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, September 18 sulfuric acid commodity index was 61.06.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 380 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 270 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, and the price of bromine is also rising steadily. There are many favorable factors in the downstream. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose mainly due to small fluctuation. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the beginning of the week was 6187.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the weekend was 6175.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The current price was down 0.4% month on month, and the current price was 4.08% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market fell slightly, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the market of potassium chloride continued to rise, the supply of port goods continued to be large, most of the ports have large supply, but the supply of 62% white potassium in the south is relatively tight, and the price is higher than that in the north, driving up the price in the northern market. Although the potassium chloride market rose, but the support for potassium carbonate has not been reflected for the time being, which may drive the potassium carbonate market higher in the later period.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the market price of potassium chloride has continued to rise in the near future, but most of them are source transactions between traders. The actual demand for downstream factories is not obvious. The supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively sufficient, and the market rate is in a stalemate state. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

The off-season August has passed, and the propane Market in the traditional sales peak season has come, but it has not been able to go up as expected. Propane entered the market in September, showing a continuous downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average market price of propane was 3457.00 yuan / ton on September 3 and 3350.00 yuan / ton on September 10, with a decrease of 3.11% during the period, which was the same as that on August 1.

Jinjiu has entered the traditional sales peak season. As the weather gradually turns cold, the industry has greater expectations of market demand. However, at present, Jinjiu has passed one third. Propane market performance is too pessimistic, and it does not show an upward trend. Instead, it falls again and again. At present, there are many negative factors in the market, which bring too much pressure to propane upward.

On the news surface, the falling cost of imported gas and the severe decline of international crude oil are one of the main reasons for the decline of propane. Due to the impact of the weakening demand caused by the epidemic situation, WTI fell by nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June. Secondly, although CP rose in September, the increase did not meet the expectation, which provided limited support to the market. Then there is demand. Due to the slow improvement of terminal demand, there is no obvious change in the current market. The overall downward trend of the civil LPG market has brought about obvious constraints on the market. At present, although the overall output of domestic refineries has been reduced, the market supply is still sufficient. At present, there are many negative factors, the downstream mentality is cautious, more on-demand replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Manufacturers blocked shipment, inventory gradually accumulated, continue to reduce prices, profit delivery.

Regional specification September 10

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953300-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 953200-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952880-2980 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3280-3800 yuan / ton

At present, there are some differences in the domestic propane market trend among different regions, only a small part of the region remains stable, and most other regions are weak in reducing the price.

International crude oil: on September 8, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price plummeted, and the settlement price of the main contract was $36.76/barrel, down $3.01. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 39.78 US dollars / barrel, down 2.23 US dollars. WTI fell nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June due to concerns that demand may be restrained due to the aggravation of the global epidemic, and the resonance impact of sharp falls in US technology stocks and energy stocks.

In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

At present, the continuous downward trend of international crude oil has a significant drag on the market, and the civil LPG market is mainly weak. The domestic refineries supply is stable and the port supply is sufficient. Although Jinjiu has arrived, the terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the demand has not been followed up, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong and the mentality is more cautious. At present, the CP price is expected to fall in October, and there are many negative factors, all of which have brought constraints on the upward road of the market. It is expected that the propane market may still fall in the short term. In the long run, terminal demand is still the main problem.