Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 17): 1766.67 yuan / ton

On August 17, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell, 30 yuan / ton, or 1.67% lower than that on August 14. The upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly recently, and the cost support was general. After the printing mark has passed, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, the domestic demand is light, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. Affected by the mentality of buying up but not falling, the purchasing intention of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises decreased significantly.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and fall slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1700 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6212.50 yuan / ton, and the current price is flat on a month on month basis, and the current price is 5.15% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market remained stable, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the upstream supply of potassium chloride is more sufficient, domestic potassium production is normal, the shipment situation is relatively slow, the market new order transaction is less, the trading atmosphere is flat and light, the domestic potassium chloride market fluctuation is not big. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the recent supply of imported potassium goods is relatively sufficient, and new supplies have arrived in the north and South ports, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market stable small rebound. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3360 yuan / ton, up 0.6% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international crude oil went down, flushed higher and fell again, and the overall trend remained volatile. Affected by this, the price of toluene rebounded slightly this week. However, due to the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene fell, and the market trading was not active. The price showed a slight stabilizing rebound, but it was not strong enough. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3400 yuan / ton. Due to the weak GDP data of Europe and the United States in the second quarter, demand concerns caused by the new coronavirus epidemic and the deepening impact of geopolitical confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, international oil prices down, high, fall again, overall maintain a volatile trend. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.01 per barrel, or 0.02%, to close at $42.885. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market continues to explore, and the atmosphere in the market is slightly warmer. For domestic goods with bills, the reference for outbound offer is 11200-11500 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with bills is 11400-11600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 525 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

According to CST, the average price of fuel decreased by 370.31 yuan (including tax) as of May.

On July 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 76.20, flat with yesterday, down 34.26% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 65.36% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Domestic marine demand and power generation demand have a certain support for fuel oil 180CST, with strong market support and firm business offer. According to the business agency, as of July 31, the price of fuel oil 180CST in Ningbo was 3800 yuan / ton, that of 120cst was 3850 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai was 3850 yuan / ton, and that of 120 CST was 120 CST The price of sulfur is 3950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price remained around $40 / barrel, supporting fuel oil. According to the monitoring of business agency, the closing price of WTI crude oil 09 contract was 40.33 USD / barrel on the 30th, while Brent crude oil 10 contract closed at 43.60 USD / barrel on the 30th.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that, supported by the cost and demand, the 180 CST fuel oil market is likely to strengthen in the near future.

This week (7.20-24) the civil LPG market was more favorable, and the price continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 2933.33 yuan / ton on July 20, 3110.00 yuan / ton on the 24th, with an increase of 6.02% in the week, and the price was 10.41% higher than that half a month ago (July 13).

Specification, mode of transportation, Shandong market, July 24 transaction price compared with the previous day

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Heze area: 3400 yuan / ton + 100 yuan

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Zibo area: 3180-3230 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Dongying area: 3200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Weifang Area: 3200 yuan / ton

From July 20 to 24, the domestic gas market increased significantly. As of July 24, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in Zhejiang was 2900-3030 yuan / ton, Shanghai was 2900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu was 3060-3150 yuan / ton, Jilin was 2950-3030 yuan / ton, and Daqing was 2900-3030 yuan / ton At 3000-3362 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas in Hebei is 3070-3170 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 3050 yuan / ton.

This week (7.20-24), the civil market of liquefied gas in Shandong continued to rise, with an increase of about 250 yuan / ton. During the week, the overall international crude oil rose slightly, which brought some support to the market. Civil gas mainly followed the rise. In the downstream buying mentality, they were more active in entering the market and replenished one after another. The market atmosphere was good, the manufacturers delivered goods continuously and smoothly. Under the low inventory operation, the mentality was strong. At present, CP expects the price to rise in August, which improves the mentality of the industry to a certain extent. In terms of supply, the domestic supply changed little, the number of imported gas dumping decreased, and the total supply decreased slightly. There were many positive factors during the week, and gas prices continued to rise.

During the week, the growth rate was larger, and the lower reaches of the market were more active in the early stage. But in the later stage, with the price rising too fast, the downstream resistance mentality strengthened, and after the replenishment, they withdrew from the market one after another. Considering that it is still in July, which is still the traditional off-season, the weather temperature is high, the terminal demand needs to be improved, and the driving force of continued rising in the later stage may be insufficient. However, as the overall inventory in the region is under control, it is expected that the trend of civil gas market will stabilize first and then rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province first fell and then rose. The quotation first fell from 1636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1630.00 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 0.41%, and then rose to 1636.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 14.16%. Overall, this week’s urea market temporarily stable, July 24 urea commodity index was 76.12.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week has been up and down. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1640 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1610 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Mingshui urea was 1660 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, the domestic corn topdressing is in the end in the near future, and rice topdressing is mainly used in the later stage; in terms of industrial demand, the downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises are affected by the air pollution control, and the starting load is low, and the purchase of new orders slows down. In terms of supply: the early production reduction and maintenance devices have been restored, and the spot supply has increased slightly. International: in India mmtc’s urea bid on July 17, the trading volume was only 119500 tons, unable to meet India’s demand. Therefore, on the evening of July 22, India’s mmtc issued a new round of urea bidding, and the tender was closed on July 30, and the shipping date was until September 4. Under the influence of this news, the business mentality improved, and the domestic urea transaction slightly improved.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall situation of urea upstream products dropped slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was 23.97% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week dropped from 3060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year The basic cost support is weak. This week, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber sheet factory had a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a negative impact on the urea price.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate, including tax, is 6212.50 yuan / ton this week. The current price is flat on a month on month basis, and the current price is 5.87% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market is stable with few fluctuations. At the same time, the demand side is weak, so the price rise is restrained, and the price adjustment is not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the upstream supply of potassium chloride is relatively sufficient, domestic potassium production is normal, the shipment situation is relatively slow, there are fewer new orders in the market, the trading atmosphere is flat, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that in the near future, the overall supply of domestic goods is relatively sufficient, and the import potassium supply is gradually arriving at domestic ports, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton as of July 17, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, decreased by 1.80% compared with June 17, and decreased by 4.09% on a three-month cycle. At present, the spot transaction of lithium hydroxide is limited, the price has no obvious fluctuation, the orders of large factories are stable, and the shipment of some enterprises is not good.

In June 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide from major manufacturers in China was around 8.28 million tons, up 9.67% month on month and 3.72% lower than the same period last year.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate price stable operation, the market continues to wait and see. As of July 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 0.35% compared with July 1; on July 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.13% compared with July 1. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has been running smoothly, but I feel that the market is willing to support the price, but the manufacturers are still in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain stable in the short term, and the downstream bargaining power is still in place.

3、 Future forecast

In the near future, lithium hydroxide Market is expected to be stable in the face of lithium hydrogen oxide Market, which will support the short-term operation of lithium hydroxide Market.

Oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, supported by a sharp drop in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but further upside was limited as the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies plan to reduce production cuts from August as the global economy gradually recovers from the new coronavirus pandemic.

Brent crude rose $0.89, or 2.1%, to $43.79 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose $0.91, or 2.3%, to $41.20 a barrel.

Crude oil inventories fell 7.5 million barrels to 531.7 million barrels in the week ended July 10, according to the energy information administration on Wednesday, compared with a 2.1 million barrel reduction expected by analysts in a Reuters survey.

“This report tells us that inventories will fall further in the coming weeks,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at price futures group. We’re going to see more signs of tightening in the market before August, and we’re likely to see more signs of supply tightening soon. ”

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries have agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels a day from August, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement on the 15th.

The Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a video conference on the same day. The conference issued a statement saying that as countries around the world slowly recover from the new epidemic, the global economy shows signs of improvement, and will enter the second phase of the oil production reduction agreement from August, that is, the scale of production reduction will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels per day.

According to Reuters, the OPEC + alliance of OPEC and its allies has been implementing a production reduction agreement of 9.7 million B / D, accounting for 10% of global supply, after the outbreak caused a sharp drop in global demand by a third, Reuters reported.

“We will enter the next phase of the production reduction agreement, and as demand continues to recover, the additional supply from the planned reduction will be absorbed,” Saudi energy minister Prince Abdel Aziz said after the Joint Ministerial oversight committee meeting

The experimental new coronal vaccine of Moderna was shown to be safe in an early ongoing study, with immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers, US researchers said on Tuesday. The news brought support to oil prices, but traders were still nervous about the rise in new cases in the United States and other countries.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rebounded slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On July 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4100-4180 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4100-4300 yuan / ton; on July 10, aniline price in Shandong was 4200-4280 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4300 yuan / ton, up 1.6% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene was 3050-3300 yuan / ton (average price was 3150 yuan / ton) on Sunday (July 12), 10 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 0.32%. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong rebounded slightly. In the first half of the week, Shandong pure benzene experienced a wave of bottoming rebound. In the second half of the week, due to the continuous impact of higher inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor and the price was stable.

Since June 10, nitric acid has been running steadily in East China, with the price of 1450 yuan / ton in East China.

This week, supported by the cost side and the release of inventory pressure, aniline in Shandong increased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. East China is dominated by ships and cargoes, and the pressure is small.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the port inventory is still high, and the large-scale equipment overhauled in the early stage has been restarted, so the market supply pressure will continue to increase in the later stage. The load of downstream phenol ketone was reduced due to maintenance, which further reduced the pure benzene.

At present, aniline market fluctuation is not big, the price is stable with small change.