Price dynamics: on April 6, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 8600 yuan / ton;

East China: the quotation of Yangzi Petrochemical is 8600 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8600 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 8600 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8653 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the EU announced that it would speed up the formulation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, but the member states have not yet reached an agreement. In addition, market participants are worried about the slowing demand of public health events, and oil prices are under pressure.

During the festival, crude oil rose as a whole, and the price of pure benzene in Asia rose. Domestic pure benzene trading is general, and the price difference of pure benzene in Shandong still exists. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8300-8650 yuan / ton.

Price trend in March

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, cryolite was sorted upward in March, and the price trend increased continuously. On March 31, the average market price in Henan was 7550 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with 7250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.14% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 17.97%.

In March, the domestic cryolite market was sorted out on a wait-and-see basis. The cryolite raw materials were tight, the manufacturer’s productivity was reduced, the inventory was ok, the market supply was small, and the market situation was strong. In addition, due to the restrictions of environmental protection policies, enterprises switched from coal to natural gas. Due to the influence of the current international situation, the natural gas price was high, the enterprise cost was increased, and the market quotation was increased. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7500-8500 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 700 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 7600 yuan / ton, which is the same month on month and the actual transaction price

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic soda ash market is waiting and finishing. On March 30, the average price of soda ash was 2587.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared with 2625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, the price of soda ash was stable and small, the market trading atmosphere was general, the downstream purchase was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on demand. The decline of soda ash inventory was not obvious, and the manufacturer maintained the reduction of shipping quotation.

The downstream aluminum price first fell and then rose in March. On March 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 22740 yuan / ton, up 0.80% from 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The early stage coincided with the traditional off-season. The downstream operating rate was relatively weak and the market demand was weak. However, the domestic mainstream social inventory continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price decreased significantly. In the later stage, the downstream consumer demand gradually recovered, the operating rate of aluminum sections, aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the demand for aluminum increased, and the aluminum price was sorted upward. On the whole, the supply and demand game was dominated, and the market fluctuated.

Future forecast

At present, the market situation of cryolite is mainly on the sidelines. The operating rate of enterprises is not high, there is no pressure on inventory, the market supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will be consolidated and operated in the later stage, and the price will be stable temporarily.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite rebounded slightly in March. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2583.33 yuan / ton on March 1 and 2700.00 yuan / ton on March 31, an increase of 4.52% in the month.

In February, the cost of upstream raw materials continued to rise. In March, domestic sodium pyrosulfite production enterprises successively increased the ex factory price slightly, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to rise slightly in early March.

In March, the price of soda ash fell slightly, the price of sulfur continued to rise, the upstream cost tended to be stable as a whole, and the overall market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite moved forward steadily.

In March, the price of domestic soda ash fell slightly, falling by 1.43% in the month, and the price of sulfur rose sharply, rising by 41.39% in the month. The cost of raw materials remained high, which will further support the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market in the future.

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost continues to operate at a high level, and it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be stable, medium and strong as a whole in April.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose in March. The price was around 1257 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1370 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 8.95% in March.

 
On the one hand, the central rural work conference held at the end of 2021 emphasized the great significance of ensuring the stable supply of primary agricultural products from the perspective of the urgency of coping with risks and challenges and the national food security strategy.

On the other hand, the teleconference on promoting the expansion of soybean oil production was held in Beijing on March 18. Hu Chunhua, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the meeting and delivered a speech.

Affected by the two policies, since the beginning of spring in 2022, spring farming has been carried out gradually and widely, the amount of fertilizer used has increased greatly, and the operation of compound fertilizer enterprises has been increased to about 50%, forming support for ammonium chloride. Domestic ammonium chloride enterprises started 70-80% of their units, with sufficient orders to be issued and tight supply, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased; Traders rose.

In March, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose sharply, with strong cost support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4953 yuan / ton, up 10.40% from 4486 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price of urea also rose sharply in March, with strong support for ammonium chloride. As of March 30, the domestic urea price was 2980 yuan / ton, up 11.44% from 2674 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

With the sharp expansion of spring ploughing and the increase of market demand, the commencement of compound fertilizer industry rose to more than 50% in March, and the demand formed a strong support in the face of ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that the support of ammonium chloride cost and demand will continue at present, and it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will be strong in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market is weak and stable this week, and the spot prices of various brands are mainly sideways. As of March 30, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 22000 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.90% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic formaldehyde Market in March fluctuated under the support of poor demand and strong cost, with an overall increase compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, methanol, the raw material, was followed up, and then the focus shifted downward due to insufficient operation of downstream plate plants and weak market demand. In the second half of the month, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to rise slightly.

There is an upstream formaldehyde market, and the cost side support of POM is acceptable. In terms of industry load, the current domestic POM operating rate has limited changes and is still at a high level, and the overall load is still more than 85%. Due to the limited improvement of the arrival at the port, the market supply was still slightly compact in March, and the positive impact on the supply side was still on. However, it is unfavorable for enterprises and businesses to go to the warehouse this month. Although the enterprise’s offer is relatively stable, the business confidence is weakened and the profit order is released at the end of the month to complete the task. Downstream demand continues to be weak, buyers are more resistant to high-priced sources of goods, and are cautious about buying up rather than buying down. Superimposed on the rebound in the number of confirmed domestic health events this month, it affects logistics and transportation in many regions and further reduces demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the field, and the purchase operation is biased towards small orders, which just needs to maintain production.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in March, the domestic POM market fluctuated in a narrow range, the finishing operation, the upstream formaldehyde market has a piece, and the cost support of POM is OK. The on-site supply is slightly tight, the load of downstream enterprises is OK, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. The on-site trading situation is light, the shipment resistance of high-priced goods is large, and the merchants cut prices and take orders. The lack of demand drags the market, the supply side bottoms the spot offer, and the market is tangled. It is expected that the POM price may continue to be weak in the short term.

DBP price shocks stabilized in March

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DBP fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the overall DBP market stabilized. As of March 29, the price of DBP was 10866.67 yuan / ton, up 0.93% from 10766.67 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. Overall, the price of DBP stabilized in March, and the plasticizer market fluctuated and stabilized.

In March, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in March, and the market of n-butanol fell. On March 29, the price of n-butanol was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 3.18% from 10466.67 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the pressure on the price of DBP increased.

In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in March. As of March 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up 8.22% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell, the cost of DBP rose, the cost support of DBP remained, the rising power of DBP was large, and the downward pressure remained.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that affected by the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the price of crude oil soared in early March, followed by the price rise of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride in the downstream spot market. Then, with the easing of the conflict, the price of crude oil plummeted, and the price of downstream n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell. Affected by the epidemic in late October, the price of raw materials first rose and then fell, the cost of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and stabilized, and the price of DBP stabilized. The price of raw materials has stabilized, the cost of DBP has stabilized, and the price shock of DBP is expected to stabilize in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market trend fell all the way in March, and the spot prices of various brands decreased significantly. As of March 28, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 31000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 8.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, adipic acid market rose first and then declined this month. In the first half of the month, pure benzene drove adipic acid higher. In the second half of the month, the supply side was abundant and the terminal demand was cautious. The transaction was not ideal, so it was difficult to support the rising price of adipic acid. The operating rate remains at a high level of 75%, and the reservoir pressure is obvious at present. The change of adiponitrile market is limited, but the start-up of adiponitrile domestic production line is approaching, there is bad news on the spot price in the short term, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell, the change of adiponitrile market was limited, and the cost side support of PA66 fell. In terms of industrial operating rate in March, the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was high and sideways. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, domestic health events rebounded in mid and late March, affecting logistics in many places, shrinking the demand of some downstream factories in China, and reducing the shipment fluency of merchants. In March, the overall transaction resistance on the floor was too large, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the gradual price reduction and order taking operation ran through the whole month.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell weakly in March. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side was limited, adipic acid market rose and fell below the average price at the beginning of the month, and PA66 cost side support weakened. On the supply side, the load of PA66 enterprise is high, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream is high. The demand side has a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods, the on-site trading continues to be sluggish, and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 39333.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37000 yuan / ton. The price decreased within the month by 5.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose this month. On the whole, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus decreased. Due to the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus in February, the downstream has been more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus since March. The inquiry is general and the purchase is cautious. The price of yellow phosphorus manufacturers has fallen all the way. Until late March, the price of yellow phosphorus began to rebound from the bottom due to the news of security inspection and production reduction in Guizhou. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus improved, and yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly issued early orders. The downstream just needs replenishment, the spot is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is higher.

In terms of phosphate rock, since March, the domestic phosphate rock market has ushered in two significant increases. At the beginning of March, the domestic phosphate rock market operated steadily at a high level, the phosphate rock supply side was tight as a whole, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was good. On the 10th, the domestic phosphorus ore as a whole ushered in the first rise in March. Subsequently, the market continued to operate at a high level, with good demand in the downstream market of the terminal, further supporting the market. On the 21st, the domestic phosphorus ore market was close to the high-end again, and the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 680-750 yuan / ton. At present, the supply in the phosphate rock quarry continues to be tight, the downstream demand is good, and the trading atmosphere is mild. p>

In terms of coke, according to the monitoring data of business society, the current reference price of coke is 3338.00, up 21.91% compared with March 1 (2738.00). The coke market is in strong operation this month. The current operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operation rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the overall production of steel mills has resumed recently, with good start-up, high enthusiasm for goods preparation and good demand for coke. In the environment of tight supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, focusing on the coke inventory in all links and the impact of changes in steel plant operating rate on the coke market.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 10200.00, the same as that on March 1. This month, the phosphoric acid market mainly operated stably, and the rise and fall were not obvious. The offer of enterprises with low quotation increased, the high-end price was mostly operated stably, and the market wait-and-see mood increased. Up to now, the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9800-11000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus fell first and then rose this month. The downstream just needs replenishment, and the overall market demand has improved. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the coke market rose, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will mainly run at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands generally decreased. As of March 18, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8940 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the domestic market of raw material propylene accelerated this week, the mainstream price of the market fell to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, the high level of international crude oil price fell sharply, the downstream demand was still low, the on-site trading level further shrank, the market situation was bad, and the merchants cut prices and took orders. After the sharp rise and fall of propylene market, the market needs to be further sorted out. It is expected that the propylene market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

The price decline of raw propylene and upstream crude oil increased. The escalation of sanctions against Russia by the Western camp in the early stage caused increased market uncertainty. This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine released a easing signal, causing a sharp decline in crude oil and the collapse of PP cost side support. In terms of supply, the current supply of PP continues the abundant pattern in the early stage, there are many inventories in enterprises and midstream, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, the inventory of petrochemical plants is high and the profit situation is general, and some enterprises are willing to reduce the load under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in taking goods. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have not taken goods in a centralized manner before. Superimposed on the recent domestic rebound in health events, logistics and production in some areas have been affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, businesses reduce prices and take orders, and the market is generally empty.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 18, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8883.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 4.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 5.83% year-on-year. This week, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials have limited changes in operation, which is basically flat, and the overall load is about 55%. In terms of demand, it is relatively stable, and terminal enterprises take goods in favor of just need to maintain production. Although there are logistics and other obstacles caused by the fermentation of health events, the current demand for medical fiber products has increased. Overall, the current negative impact on the cost side is relatively major. Fiber PP will be tangled in the short term, or adjust the operation in a narrow range.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market was generally stable this week. As of March 18, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10016.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.09% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. At present, health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a certain pulling effect on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, due to the abundant supply side and the lag of logistics, the benefit is relatively slow. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may be stable.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell as a whole this week, the decline of raw material propylene and crude oil increased, and PP, which lost strong support on the cost side, fell upstream. The demand of terminal enterprises is not large-scale, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. The stock accumulation of PP enterprises and businesses continued to rise, and the offer was loose. In the short term, bad will dominate the domestic market, and it is expected that the PP market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36250 yuan / ton last Friday and 33000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 8.97% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to decline. The overall market trading situation has improved, and the logistics in some areas has been blocked. Downstream enquiries increased and the goods were taken more carefully. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly supply early-stage orders, the enterprise has obvious price support, and the low price is not exported. Affected by the news of Guizhou security inspection and production reduction, the price of yellow phosphorus may hit the bottom and rebound. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 33000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 726 yuan / ton. The overall support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is favorable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, from March 11 to March 18, 2022, the price of coke market in Shanxi was 3194 yuan / ton last weekend and 3394 yuan / ton this weekend, up 6.26%. This week, the fourth round of increase in coke market fell to the ground. This round of increase was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. At present, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operation rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the overall production of steel mills has resumed recently. At present, the operation is good, the enthusiasm for goods preparation is high, and the demand for coke is good. In the current environment of tight supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, focusing on the impact of coke inventory in all links and the change of steel plant operating rate on the coke market.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid was weak and stable this week. The cost support is weak, while the downstream demand continues to maintain the rigid demand for procurement, and the procurement enthusiasm is not positive. Both the buyer and the seller are cautious and wait-and-see, and the focus of the phosphoric acid market begins to move downward. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 33000-33500 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9600-12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will fall steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to fall this week, the downstream orders are cautious, and the overall market demand is general. The upstream phosphate rock is running at a high level, the coke market is rising, the cost support is OK, and the news such as the reduction of production by security inspection in Guizhou has an impact. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may rebound slightly in the short term.