According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands generally decreased. As of March 18, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8940 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the domestic market of raw material propylene accelerated this week, the mainstream price of the market fell to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, the high level of international crude oil price fell sharply, the downstream demand was still low, the on-site trading level further shrank, the market situation was bad, and the merchants cut prices and took orders. After the sharp rise and fall of propylene market, the market needs to be further sorted out. It is expected that the propylene market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

The price decline of raw propylene and upstream crude oil increased. The escalation of sanctions against Russia by the Western camp in the early stage caused increased market uncertainty. This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine released a easing signal, causing a sharp decline in crude oil and the collapse of PP cost side support. In terms of supply, the current supply of PP continues the abundant pattern in the early stage, there are many inventories in enterprises and midstream, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, the inventory of petrochemical plants is high and the profit situation is general, and some enterprises are willing to reduce the load under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in taking goods. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have not taken goods in a centralized manner before. Superimposed on the recent domestic rebound in health events, logistics and production in some areas have been affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, businesses reduce prices and take orders, and the market is generally empty.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 18, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8883.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 4.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 5.83% year-on-year. This week, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials have limited changes in operation, which is basically flat, and the overall load is about 55%. In terms of demand, it is relatively stable, and terminal enterprises take goods in favor of just need to maintain production. Although there are logistics and other obstacles caused by the fermentation of health events, the current demand for medical fiber products has increased. Overall, the current negative impact on the cost side is relatively major. Fiber PP will be tangled in the short term, or adjust the operation in a narrow range.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market was generally stable this week. As of March 18, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10016.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.09% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. At present, health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a certain pulling effect on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, due to the abundant supply side and the lag of logistics, the benefit is relatively slow. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may be stable.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell as a whole this week, the decline of raw material propylene and crude oil increased, and PP, which lost strong support on the cost side, fell upstream. The demand of terminal enterprises is not large-scale, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. The stock accumulation of PP enterprises and businesses continued to rise, and the offer was loose. In the short term, bad will dominate the domestic market, and it is expected that the PP market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation.