1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36250 yuan / ton last Friday and 33000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 8.97% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to decline. The overall market trading situation has improved, and the logistics in some areas has been blocked. Downstream enquiries increased and the goods were taken more carefully. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly supply early-stage orders, the enterprise has obvious price support, and the low price is not exported. Affected by the news of Guizhou security inspection and production reduction, the price of yellow phosphorus may hit the bottom and rebound. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 33000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 726 yuan / ton. The overall support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is favorable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, from March 11 to March 18, 2022, the price of coke market in Shanxi was 3194 yuan / ton last weekend and 3394 yuan / ton this weekend, up 6.26%. This week, the fourth round of increase in coke market fell to the ground. This round of increase was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. At present, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operation rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. In terms of downstream steel mills, the overall production of steel mills has resumed recently. At present, the operation is good, the enthusiasm for goods preparation is high, and the demand for coke is good. In the current environment of tight supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, focusing on the impact of coke inventory in all links and the change of steel plant operating rate on the coke market.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid was weak and stable this week. The cost support is weak, while the downstream demand continues to maintain the rigid demand for procurement, and the procurement enthusiasm is not positive. Both the buyer and the seller are cautious and wait-and-see, and the focus of the phosphoric acid market begins to move downward. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 33000-33500 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9600-12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will fall steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to fall this week, the downstream orders are cautious, and the overall market demand is general. The upstream phosphate rock is running at a high level, the coke market is rising, the cost support is OK, and the news such as the reduction of production by security inspection in Guizhou has an impact. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may rebound slightly in the short term.