1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7733.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 7466.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 3.45% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from August to October

This week, the focus of the domestic isopropanol market continued to move downward, the price of raw acetone was weak, and the cost suppressed the market mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods. Most of the downstream are wait-and-see. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the isopropanol market quotation fell. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7400 yuan / ton; Most quotation ranges of Jiangsu isopropanol are about 7500 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 7500 yuan / ton. Internationally, on November 16, the isopropanol market in the United States closed stable and the isopropanol market in Europe closed stable.

In terms of raw material acetone, the trading atmosphere is general, the offer range of the holder fluctuates, the pressure increases, and the shipping mood improves. However, the participation of intermediate traders is very little, while the terminal factory is completely in the state of just needing follow-up, the trading surface is cold, and the actual order is less heard. The business community expects the weak adjustment of acetone market today, and the offer in East China market is expected to be 5600-5700 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene price began to stabilize after a slight rise this week. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and some factories adjusted slightly. The wait-and-see mentality of downstream procurement is dominant, the shipment pressure of propylene manufacturers increases slightly, the operation of downstream units is basically stable, and the procurement is mainly based on use and production. The overall market performance is average, there is no obvious positive factor guidance, and the price consolidation operation.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. Weak adjustment of raw materials and insufficient cost support. The downstream is mostly wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. It is expected that in the short term, the market will wait and see, and the price is weak.

In November, the EVA market continued to be weak, the price continued to fall, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 24200.00 yuan / ton on October 31 and 22000.00 yuan / ton on November 11, with a decrease of 9.09% and 20.10% compared with October 1.

As of November 12, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 22000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 21000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 23000 yuan / ton

Recently, the domestic EVA market continues to decline, with obvious market bad, frequent bidding policies, suppressing the mentality of the industry, petrochemical enterprises reduce the factory quotation, the mentality of the merchants is general, giving priority to profit and shipping, and the downstream is cautious to enter the market with the mentality of buying up but not buying down. In addition, the market demand is weak, the overall transaction atmosphere is weak, and the firm offer focuses on a single discussion.

In the upstream ethylene market, the recent external ethylene market showed a shock downward trend as a whole. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 11th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1156-1166 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1071-1081 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 11th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1231-1231 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1182-1190 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 11th, the price was 779-797 yuan / ton. Recently, the overall demand of the external ethylene market is poor, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the transaction is cold.

On the whole, the current market lacks obvious benefits, the downstream demand is not followed up, the market entry mentality is cautious, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is poor. Petrochemical enterprises reduce the ex factory price, the merchant mentality is pessimistic, and it is mainly to make profit and ship one after another. It is expected that the EVA market will continue to weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of November 12, the average price of melamine enterprises was 18400 yuan / ton, down 3.50% compared with Monday’s price and up 2.79% compared with October 12.

Melamine market fell this week. Recently, the price of raw urea has temporarily stabilized after falling, the cost support has weakened, the domestic downstream market demand is weak, the export market is mainly wait-and-see, the willingness to purchase is not high, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened under the weak demand support.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on November 12, down 2.46% compared with the quotation on Monday. Upstream coal prices have fallen slightly recently and cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, industrial demand is just needed, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is good, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level, and most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is limited and the weak demand restricts the market. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Adipic acid East China market price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business society, this week (11.8-12), the price of domestic adipic acid fell, the market reversed the rise, and the high level fell mainly. Adipic acid in East China fell by 2.14% this week. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 12700-13100 yuan / ton. The main reason is the weakening of cost drive, the resumption of production of enterprises and the increase of supply put pressure on the market.

In terms of market supply, the adipic acid operating rate increased significantly this week. After the restart of Shenma, Tianli hi tech and Tangshan Zhonghao units, it brought a certain supply increment. In addition, Chongqing Huafeng and Shandong Hongding units are also planning to start up, which further increased the market supply expectation. The market has changed from previous supply shortage to loose supply.

Adipic acid industry chain trend chart

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industrial chain showed a downward trend in the whole industrial chain on the premise that the cost end fell, the downstream was weak and the cost was continuously transmitted.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

Cyclohexanone market trend chart

The prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell this week, but the decline was small. Pure benzene is still at a relatively high level. According to the monitoring of business society, pure benzene fell slightly by 0.46% this week, cyclohexanone fell significantly by 1.97%, and the cost fell, weakening the price support of adipic acid. However, the manufacturer brought the improvement of profits, and the profits of adipic acid have increased for several consecutive weeks.

PA66 market trend chart

Terminal demand: according to the data of business society, PA66 continued to decline this week, with a decline of 1.25%. Downstream procurement slowed down and dealer prices loosened slightly. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

In the later stage, the business society believes that the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone have decreased recently, and the cost is bad. With the restart of the maintenance device, the overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the supply pressure will continue to increase in the later stage. However, from the downstream demand side, the demand improvement is not obvious. Therefore, it is expected that adipic acid may still have downward space.

The spot tin market price (11.05-11.12) fluctuated upward this week. The average price in the domestic market was 290387.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 297262.50 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2.37% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The tin price shown in the figure above has fluctuated for four consecutive weeks.

The dollar fell at the beginning of this week, and the metal market was boosted and rose slightly. Later, as the US dollar market stopped falling and rebounded, the base metals began to operate under pressure. On Thursday, after the shock trend of nearly half a month, Shanghai tin prices began to enter the rebound trend.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were silver (5.31%), aluminum (3.02%) and nickel (2.76%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 10.61%), antimony (- 5.13%) and praseodymium (- 0.92%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.57%, and most of the nonferrous metals markets rose.

Affected by the tightening of public health events in Myanmar, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline. Although domestic smelters have fully recovered from the impact of power restriction policy, it is expected that they will fall into the tight end of the mine again, which will further affect the output of tin ingots. In terms of demand, it is close to the end of the peak season, the impact of power rationing has been negligible, and the overall demand is still acceptable. At present, the tin ingot inventory continues to be low, and the market supply is still tight. Under the stimulation of low inventory, the tin price is expected to rise further. In terms of current fundamental factors, it is necessary to focus on the impact of tin ore imports in Myanmar on the market mentality.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell in early November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 12, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 16300 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 7.03% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: the price of upstream caprolactam fell, the price of raw material pure benzene decreased, and the cost support was insufficient. The demand of downstream polymerization plants is weak, mainly just need to buy, and the market turnover is weak. Sinopec cut the price of high-end liquid caprolactam to 15200 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam is expected to run weakly and stably in the short term.

The recent price decline of upstream caprolactam weakened the cost support of PA6. This week, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants increased slightly, about 60% overall, and there is still an expectation of increase in the future. At present, the profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, the current downstream just needs replenishment. In addition, environmental protection policies such as double limit affect the load of terminal enterprises, the user’s taking of goods is lower, and there is more wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that in early November, caprolactam weakened its support for the cost side of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment. The trading situation on the floor is poor. Most buyers are bearish and the wait-and-see mood is aggravated. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 46666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 36666.67 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 21.43% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. At present, the overall market is relatively cold, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. The downstream purchases yellow phosphorus at a low price, and the transaction price is mostly close to the low end. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 32000-35000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 35000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of business society, as of November 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the mainstream areas of China was around 663 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on November 1, and increased by 83 yuan / ton or 14.37% compared with that on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 580 yuan / ton). At present, the overall supply of phosphate rock in some parts of China continues to be tight, and some Guizhou mining enterprises do not quote for the time being and only receive orders from old customers. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port decreased slightly. The mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 3950-4000 yuan / ton. The first round of increase and decrease landed, and the market price followed the decline. The overall mentality of the port market is weak, the source of goods available for sale is still small, the port inventory increased slightly, and traders actively ship. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. At present, some steel mills have started the first round of raising and lowering 200 yuan / ton, and some areas have landed. There are still many downstream steel mills with limited production and maintenance. Recently, the steel mills have made great efforts to limit production and have stricter expectations in the future. The demand for coke has declined and the purchase intention is slightly low. In terms of coking enterprises, the inventory in the plant is higher than that in the early stage, and the mentality of coking enterprises is declining. Without the support of downstream demand, coke prices may decline.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid moves downward, the market gradually cools down and the focus moves downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 14533.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11033.33 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 24.08% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the operating load of phosphoric acid enterprises is gradually increased, the space elasticity of adjustable price is increased, and the enthusiasm of the market is gradually cooled. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this week, and the phosphate rock operated stably. With the increase of electricity prices in various regions, the yellow phosphorus manufacturers had a strong attitude of supporting the price. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation fell from 860 yuan / ton last weekend to 811.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.62%, a year-on-year increase of 104.19% over the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream purchase intention is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 900 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 650 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 850 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 750 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid quoted 880 yuan / ton this weekend, down 80 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 840 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market was consolidated at a high level this week, with a quotation of 2123.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 123.51% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support was general. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 69000.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 68857.14 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.21%, a year-on-year increase of 114.06% over the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 8050.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.21%, a year-on-year increase of 266.67% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

The market outlook fell slightly

In the middle and early November, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province may fluctuate and fall slightly. The upstream sulfur price has been adjusted at a high level recently, with insufficient rising power and general cost support. The downstream bromine market has decreased slightly, the downstream formic acid market has increased slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid is general, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price was adjusted and operated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 69000 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 68857.14 yuan / ton, down 0.21%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is adjusted and operated. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 67000-69000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is adjusted and operated this week. At present, the domestic bromine price is consolidated, the enterprise inventory is low, and there is no hurry to ship. Now, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are in conflict with the high price bromine, and multi-dimensional rigid demand is the main demand.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur market is running stably temporarily, and the average market price from Monday to Sunday is about 2123.33 yuan / ton. The price of sulfur is mainly strong, the inventory of refineries in China remains low, the manufacturer’s quotation is high, the downstream traders purchase on demand, the enterprise shipment is stable, the low price in the port is difficult to find in the yard, which gives market support, and the future sulfur market is stable for the time being.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow and the enterprise inventory is low. At present, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to high price bromine and mainly purchase on demand. At this stage, the stalemate market operation is dominated. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still be high in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on November 5, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 960 yuan / ton compared with 10300 at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 9.32% during the week and an increase of 27.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to decline this week, with a decline of about 9% during the week, and the focus continued to move down. During the week, the disk continued to weaken, the price of PVC futures continued to decline, and the spot market followed the decline rapidly. The quotation of enterprises fell again and again, making it difficult to price. For example, the quotation of Beiyuan, China salt and other enterprises has been as low as 8800 yuan / ton, falling below the 9000 yuan mark and falling to the price level in August. The increase was basically spit back. The mentality of cargo holders was negative and continued to reduce prices for shipment. At present, due to the increase in the output of raw calcium carbide and the decline in the price of blue carbon, calcium carbide fell by about 24% during the week, with the lowest price of 4100 yuan / ton. The support of the cost side was weakened and the demand was weak. It still maintained the just needed replenishment and bargain hunting. Under the situation of weak cost and demand, the high price of PVC was difficult to support, so that the price continued to decline.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8800-9650 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Shanghai is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9500-9650 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.

Data show that at present, CFR China is down 50 yuan at 1650 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is down 60 yuan at 1750 US dollars / ton, and CFR India is stable at 1900 US dollars / ton.

region workmanship 11 / 5 (yuan / ton) 11 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9000-9500 9900-10250 – 900/-750 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9250-9550 10100-10500 – 850/-950 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8900-9400 9850-10000 – 950/-600 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 8950-9200 9600-10000 – 650/-800 Delivered

On November 5, the international oil price rebounded sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.27/barrel, up US $2.46 or 3.1%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.74/barrel, up US $2.20 or 2.7%. Despite the pressure of the US government, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) still maintained their previous policies, the market expectation of future supply shortage remained unchanged, and the oil price was supported.

For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated last week, rising slightly. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1176.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1187.75/t, up 0.98%. The current price increased by 5.55% month on month, and the current price increased by 66.35% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: the recent crude oil market has fallen, but the overall price of crude oil is still at a high level, so the data analysts of business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply last week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the disk is weak, the PVC futures price continues to fall, driving the sharp decline in the spot market price. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide is reduced, the demand is weak, and the cost demand is weak. It is expected that the PVC market will be difficult to find good in the short term, and the market will continue to be weak.