According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market experienced a wide decline in November 2024. From November 1st to 28th, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 12325 yuan/ton to 9675 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.5% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12325 yuan/ton to 10937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.26% during the period. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has a weak trend, which has a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has a weak trend this week, and Sinopec has lowered its price to 11000 yuan/ton.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market price for this cycle has decreased from 11287.5 yuan/ton to 10162.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.97% during the cycle. On the supply side, the Tianjin area has put into operation, and the market expects a relatively loose supply in the future. The port inventory in East China is also high, and overall there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 10200 yuan/ton.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly during this cycle, with a slight slowdown in the decline. On the supply side, the overall market supply remained loose this week, while downstream demand remained weak. Overall, there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 9800 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th, a cumulative decrease of 2600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 12400 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: The domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has experienced a wide decline in this cycle. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton from 16200 yuan/ton on October 31st. Raw material butadiene continues to decline, styrene prices have slightly adjusted, and the cost center of styrene butadiene rubber has shifted downward. Downstream all steel tire production slightly decreased; The production of styrene butadiene rubber is basically stable, and the supply pressure is not significant. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been lowered, and as of November 27th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14600-14900 yuan/ton.

External market: The butadiene external market experienced a wide decline in November, and as of November 28th, the closing price of butadiene external market: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1055-1065 US dollars per ton; China CFR reports 1095-1105 USD/ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1015-1025 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 980-990 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. Port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently, and new facilities in Shandong have been put into operation. The market expects loose supply in the future, and the supply side is bearish. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this month. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the month was 1910 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 1873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92% during the month.

This month, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 1700-1850 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen by 1.77% this month, and the downstream caprolactam price has fallen by 1.27%. There is no positive support for both upstream and downstream, and market transactions are weak. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sodium metabisulfite market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6850 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 2.32% compared to the price of 7012.50 yuan/ton on November 1st. The phthalic anhydride equipment is operating at a high level and stable, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; The price of ortho benzene is weak and stabilizing, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is weak and temporarily stable, the price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and falling, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is weakened. Supply exceeds demand and cost support is insufficient, resulting in a fluctuating decline in phthalic anhydride prices.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In November, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable, with about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers starting production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers was stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the price of ortho benzene was 6900 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene at 6900 yuan/ton on November 1st, but decreased by 2.82% compared to the price of ortho benzene at 7100 yuan/ton in late October. In November, the price of ortho benzene remained weak and temporarily stable, while the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride remained stable. The downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride still exists.

Demand side: November DOP market trend first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the DOP price was 9038.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.69% compared to the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton on November 1st; Compared to November 14th, the DOP price of 9551.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 2.63%. In November, the price of isooctanol briefly rose, and the cost of plasticizers increased. As the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizers also decreased, and PVC product companies gradually declined in production. Entering November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decline. As the weather in the north gradually turns cold, demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing. The expected operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and plasticizer manufacturers have weak demand for phthalic anhydride. The support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is weak and temporarily stable, while the cost of phthalic anhydride is weak and stabilizing; In terms of demand, the expected operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream support for phthalic anhydride has weakened. Overall, costs are temporarily stable, demand is cold, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will weaken and decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on November 25th was around 1548 yuan/ton. On November 24th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1546 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China remained stable but declined slightly this week, with a slight decrease in the actual transaction center. As of November 22nd, the average market price in East China was 12650 yuan/ton, and as of November 18th, the average price was 12650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.02%.

This week, the TDI market has been running at a low level, with relatively quiet trading on the market. As the end of the month approaches, the supplier’s awareness of price increases, and traders maintain stable sales. However, the positive news support is insufficient, and the overall TDI price has slightly decreased.

Supply side: Shanghai Covestro’s 310000 ton plant has been shut down for maintenance, while Xinjiang Juli has upgraded its production capacity to 200000 tons per year, but the operation of the plant is unstable.

On the cost side, there are fluctuations within the upstream toluene range, and the overall performance of supply and demand is weak, which provides moderate support for TDI.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market is dominated by demand, and with no significant fluctuations in supply side equipment, demand remains weak. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 18th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8837 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.95%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since November, the overall domestic cyclohexanone market has shown a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market performed poorly, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market shifted towards a lower level. The price of cyclohexanone decreased by about 300-500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, under the influence of rising costs, the downward trend of the cyclohexanone market gradually came to an end, but the overall positive support within the market was still insufficient, and the cyclohexanone market was weakly consolidating and operating. As of November 18th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong Province is around 8350-8400 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in South China is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of nearly 5% during the month.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply performance of the domestic cyclohexanone market is relatively stable, with little adjustment in the production of cyclohexanone. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the market support provided by the supply side for cyclohexanone is loose.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand in the cyclohexanone market is mainly for essential needs, and the market’s purchasing enthusiasm is generally average. The demand side provides weak support for the cyclohexanone market.

Upstream: Recently, there has been a slight upward trend in the pure benzene market for cyclohexanone. The rise in raw materials has provided some cost support for cyclohexanone. As of November 15th, the reference price for pure benzene was 7153 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% compared to November 1st (7109.67 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild and relatively quiet, and the mentality of on-site operators is average. Downstream purchases are mainly based on volume transactions. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1890 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable, with sulfur prices falling by 1.23% and downstream caprolactam prices rising by 0.34%. The market for sodium metabisulfite is slow, and industry insiders are mainly observing the situation. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading of sodium metabisulfite market is not active, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1903 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1893 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable, with sulfur prices rising by 1.66% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 4.14%. The sodium metabisulfite market is mainly dominated by inquiries and lacks favorable support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading volume of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5890 yuan/ton to 5860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the period.

In the first half of October 2024, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

In the second half of the month, the toluene market continued to decline. During the holiday period, the external market continued to rise, with the toluene market rebounding after the holiday. The overall ex factory prices of the main refineries rose, but downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support. The toluene market had weak upward momentum, and after the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, resulting in increased market supply. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the overall market price declined.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation rose first and then fell during the cycle, but there were slight differences in the amplitude of each underground quotation. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 27th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

The overall decline of the Asian toluene market this cycle, as of Wednesday (October 30th), the Asian toluene market closed down: the FOB Korea closing price in October was 666-668 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 699-701 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in October, with an average price of 3512.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.88% from the beginning price of 3381.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight availability of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Recently, the fluorite market has risen. With the shortage of supply and the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong, and the fluorite price.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

The pricing of hydrofluoric acid by major domestic manufacturers increased in October, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 10600-11200 yuan/ton in October. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite prices rose in October.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and refrigerants continue to go out of storage within the year. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a rise in the fluorite market in October.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market still has support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and coupled with the rise in downstream hydrofluoric acid market, favorable factors support the rise in fluorite market prices in November.