According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1916 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, with sulfur prices rising by 0.91% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 0.84%. Sales of sodium metabisulfite were mainly based on orders, with light transactions. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the transaction volume of sodium metabisulfite market is weak, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

The nickel price trend continued to decline this week (10.19-10.25), with weak demand and continued oversupply of nickel. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, spot nickel was reported at 127266 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.62%.

Macro wise: After China launched its most aggressive economic stimulus plan since 2020, the trend of base metals rebounded briefly, but then fluctuated and fell back as demand concerns continued. The uncertainty of the US presidential election has also raised concerns about the demand outlook, with nickel prices continuing to fluctuate weakly.

On the supply side, foreign inventory is still showing an upward trend, price pressure is still present, and the number of domestic goods that meet delivery quality has decreased. As of October 25th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 28008 tons, a decrease of 897 tons from last Friday; On October 25th, LME nickel inventory was 135522 tons, an increase of 1152 tons from last Friday.

In terms of demand: The overall market situation is average, with some first-time buyers purchasing in moderation at low prices. As there is already a certain amount of reserve inventory in the early stage, the actual increase in shipment quantity is limited. Some merchants have expressed that downstream customers will be cautious. Boosted by favorable economic policies, on October 25th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12778.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% compared to the beginning of this month. However, the inventory pressure has not improved, and the company continues to self regulate and control production, operating weakly.

Market forecast: The trend of strong supply and weak demand in the upstream and downstream continues, and overall confidence is still insufficient. We look forward to macroeconomic positive news to boost, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price remained stable at 17283 yuan/ton, with no fluctuations during the period and a year-on-year increase of 19.37%. During the week, the domestic aggregated MDI market was operating strongly, with tight supply and scarce supply. Downstream demand entered the market, and aggregated MDI remained stable at a high level.

On the supply side, some devices have stopped, resulting in tight product supply and delayed delivery. Domestic supply remains tight, and manufacturers mainly fulfill orders from old customers.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has continued to decline. As of October 18th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7525 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is stable after rising. As of October 18th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10700 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, the demand remains stable and follows up, with many inquiries and some models being out of stock.

Future forecast: The current MDI export market demand is stable, domestic inventory remains low, and the supply-demand situation will continue for a period of time. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices rise in October

The price of ethylene glycol rose in October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4741.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.79% from September 26th.

On October 11, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4780-4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot contracts fell within the day. This week, the basis fell to+45 to+48; In October, the base price will be quoted at+50 to+55 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+49 to+52 yuan/ton.

On October 11th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On October 12, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $572/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $568/ton.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Supply side: With the price recovery, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has begun to rise, and the production of domestic ethylene glycol has also rebounded, and there is still a significant expectation of increase in the later stage. However, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol in ports is relatively low. As of October 10, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 530000 tons, which is at a low level for the year. In the recent news, the number of offshore bidding goods has increased, the supply of goods from Taiwan, China Province, Malaysia has been sold, the supply of goods from South Korea will also be opened, and the short-term arrival is expected to increase. The overseas 360000 ton plant in the United States is restarting, and there are expectations of supply growth in the future.

Demand side: Downstream polyester load is relatively high, but polyester production and sales performance is poor after the holiday. The follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and there is little hope for further demand growth.

Future expectations

The recent surge in ethylene glycol prices is mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.

The price surged in the short term, with trading prices fluctuating at high levels this week, and the price center fell back on Thursday. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is reported that a certain domestic trading company has completed high-level hedging and mainly shipped on a basis basis. The overall market trading sentiment was light in the second half of the week.

Given that the current price of ethylene glycol is at a high level, the upward space has narrowed, and the future market is cautiously optimistic, we will observe changes in international crude oil prices. If the market lacks new positive news to boost it, we cannot rule out the possibility of a downward correction.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market stopped falling and rose in September. From September 1st to 30th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17300 yuan/ton to 18083 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 4.83% and a year-on-year price increase of 9.6%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of aggregated MDI continued to decline, and the supply of suppliers was tight, leading to an increased reluctance to sell and downstream urgent procurement.

In mid to late September, a large northern manufacturer’s aggregated MDI distribution channel sold out its planned supply for the first ten days of September. In addition, due to the impact of the European floods, the export plan was adjusted, and the supply of aggregated MDI distribution spot by a large northern manufacturer was reduced. In September, the distribution channel stopped accepting orders, and there was no stock available in the market.

Due to the impact of natural disasters on the supply side, the raw material aniline plant is experiencing force majeure, resulting in reduced load operation of the MDI plant. BASF’s 400000 ton MDI plant in Chongqing unexpectedly shut down, expected to last for about 10 days, and the supply side remains tight.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating upwards. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8193 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and fallen. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10062 yuan/ton. The cost support for aggregated MDI is weak.

On the demand side, downstream demand remains high and demand follows smoothly. Boosted by news, downstream buying sentiment is strong, and actual transactions remain at the previous level.

In the future forecast, downstream pre holiday stocking is basically completed, and enterprises that reduce production due to parking in the future will gradually return to normal. It is expected that the market will maintain a tight supply situation in the short term, and the aggregated MDI market will operate relatively strongly.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13% compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, mainly due to manufacturers offering discounts and taking orders. Downstream demand fell short of expectations, overall market shipments were slow, inventory remained high, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Many operators adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: This week, the pure benzene market has mainly operated weakly, with a positive attitude towards price and shipment, and a narrow downward trend in prices. As of now, there has been a slight rebound in upstream pure benzene prices, with a narrow upward trend in prices and insufficient support on the cost side.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will maintain its current trend in the short term, and the price will mainly operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this month. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the month was 2050 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 1953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.72% during the week.

This month, the domestic market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1650-1850 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1800 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen by 10.83% this month, sulfur has fallen by 1.9%, and downstream caprolactam has fallen by 5.33%. The market for sodium metabisulfite is slow, mainly driven by inquiries. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sodium metabisulfite market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda is around 1633.6 yuan/ton. On September 23, the baking soda commodity index was 109.09, a decrease of 0.75 points from yesterday, a decrease of 53.74% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 23.59% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1350-1500 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1660 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2010 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1976 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market prices have been weak. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen by 1.73% this week, and the downstream caprolactam price has fallen by 2.16%. The sodium metabisulfite market is slow to move, and prices are weak and declining. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, inquiries in the sodium metabisulfite market are the main focus, and it is expected that domestic market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of September 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The market price of raw sulfuric acid remains stable, but overall, production costs for enterprises are still under pressure. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10400-11300 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend has been weak and stable this week. As of September 13th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.82% compared to the beginning of this month (3437.50 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is in a game situation, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to start operating. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price trend is weak and stable.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, there is limited new demand in the refrigerant market. Due to poor demand transmission, market production demand weakens after entering the off-season of production. Refrigerant companies have poor inventory and are not proactive in purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for hydrofluoric acid is weak and difficult to change.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite supply remains tight; The production costs of enterprises are still under pressure. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid has weakened. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.