First, the price trend

According to business price monitoring, this week the domestic methanol market first rose and then stabilized.

At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market in 2288 yuan/ton, the weekend reported 2342 yuan/ton, the weekly increase of 2.36%, prices than the same period last year down 23.18%.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. Port market, futures performance is fair, narrow shock mainly, the spot market with a small adjustment. In the mainland market, the new olefin plant production is expected to be active, the current Northwest main production area is OK, some of the suspension, and the recent freight continues to rise, the arrival cost has been improved to a certain extent to support the methanol price. It is worth mentioning that the current production area inventory is mostly transferred from the upstream end to the intermediate trade link, and the demand end has no obvious increase and the volume of goods digestion needs a certain period, so the second half of the local increase rhythm or slightly slower.

In addition, beware of rising freight costs on the production area of the rising space of the suppression conduction. Freight, domestic methanol freight local continued to move higher. Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei Freight reference 300-360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, South Line to Lubei 210-350 yuan/ton, up 20-40 yuan/ton. Shanxi Local to Lubei 120-200 yuan/ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 130-170 yuan/ton, to Lunan 150-200 yuan/ton. Ningxia to Lubei part of 280-290 yuan/ton or so.

Xinjiang to Lubei 660-680 yuan/ton, to Wenan 630-650 yuan/ton or so. Industrial chain: Formaldehyde: Formaldehyde market local adjustment. Affected by Lunan methanol rise, local formaldehyde enterprises narrow increase, other areas of temporary stability, downstream market is still just need to purchase mainly, the overall transaction in general, did not change. Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid market part of the exploration, this month’s export orders concentrated in the recent delivery, to ease the domestic social inventory pressure of acetic acid, and some production enterprises to report a rise in confidence, Jiangsu Thorpe acetic acid device is still low-load operation, some export orders are delivered, North China acetic acid market is relatively optimistic, northwest, north China is still light Dimethyl ether: dimethyl ether price decline, market transaction atmosphere in general. Henan Regional Enterprises Bidding is obvious, the North Henan region fell below the 3,000 Yuan mark, corporate profits upside down losses serious, western Henan the price of high prices, manufacturers to leave the goods deadlocked, inventory pressure is great.

Shanxi Area Orchid is expected to stop at the end of this month overhaul, shipping pressure is small, the mainstream deal on the standard Henan area small decline mainly.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business community Point of view: positive aspects, the mainland production enterprises pre-sale smooth, inventory is not high, temporarily no sales pressure; Nemonjute MTO device low load operation; Shandong Luxi, Nanjing Zhicheng Phase two MTO is expected to start production in 6-July; On the negative side, the traditional downstream products, dimethyl ether, acetic acid market continued to be low, corporate profitability ; The production of international methanol plant is stable, imported goods will be concentrated in port in early May at the end of April, when the social inventory will have a significant increase; affected by safety, environmental inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises to stop, affecting the consumption of methanol. After this week’s sharp price rise, downstream resistance highlighted, with weak, traders to slow down, and futures in the second half of the trend is weak, business society methanol analysts expect that next week the market will be stable, do not rule out the possibility of a local retreat. Port trend and futures maintain a high correlation, the recent increase in port arrival, internal dependence will be alleviated.