I. Trend analysis
According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber was mainly weak in May. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11550 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell slightly to 11362 yuan/ton, and the overall price fell by 1.62% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.
II. Market Analysis
Petrochemical ex-factory price: According to the business association, as of May 31, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 11,550 yuan/ton.
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As far as installation is concerned, according to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of about 90%; Qilu Petrochemical Company is in full negative operation with a load of 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit; Yanshan Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a load of 80% and a stock of cis-butadiene about 1100 tons.
Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined year-on-year, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to Statistics Bureau data, in April 2019, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; in January-April, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 26.06.33 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.
Raw material: The rising price of raw material supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Butadiene prices rose in May, 7,834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8,540 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 9.01%.
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On the import side: China imported 557,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2019, a decrease of 4.13% compared with the previous year; from January to April 2019, China imported 212.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the higher price of raw material butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to the overall cis-butadiene rubber. However, some petrochemical manufacturers plan to carry out plant overhauls in June, or to some extent, stimulate the price of cis-butadiene.
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