I. Trend of Rare Earth Market

As of September 6, the price of Pd-Nd oxides rose by 327,500 yuan per ton at the weekend, 2.02% and 0.77% year-on-year, 1.05% and 67.10% year-on-year, respectively. The domestic reference quotation for Pd-Fe alloys was 1930 yuan/ton, and the domestic reference quotation for Pd-Nd alloys was 413. 500 yuan/ton, the price trend increased by 2.99%, 0.24% year-on-year; praseodymium oxide factory mainstream quotation at 382 500 yuan/ton, the price trend temporarily stable, down 6.71%; dysprosium oxide factory mainstream quotation at 1930 000 yuan/ton, the price trend increased by 1.05%, up 68.56% year-on-year; neodymium oxide factory price at 329 500 yuan/ton, the price trend increased by 2%. The price trend of neodymium increased by 2.99% and 1.47% compared with the same period of last year, while that of praseodymium was 695,000 yuan/ton. The price trend of praseodymium was temporarily stable and increased by 5.30% compared with the same period of last year. The mainstream price of dysprosium was 2325,000 yuan/ton, and the price trend rose by 1.09% and 43.08% compared with the same period of last year.

II. Rare Earth Price Index

On September 6, the rare earth index was 380 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 62.00% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 40.22% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015.  (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

III. Market Analysis

Recently, the price of some rare earth products has risen. The price of praseodymium and neodymium products has risen by about 3%. The price of neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has risen first. However, the downstream demand for light rare earth has not improved significantly. A small number of downstream merchants replenish their products on demand. The actual transaction price is still at a low level, and the on-site wait-and-see sentiment is strong in the heavy rare earth market. Prices have risen by about 1%. Due to Myanmar’s export restrictions, the domestic supply of heavy rare earths is tight, and prices have been at a high level. The rising price of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision more stringent. Under strict environmental protection inspection, manufacturers control sales reasonably, but in the near future, they are greatly affected by external environment. They mainly benefit from the active distribution of new energy fields by mainstream automobile factories at home and abroad. The increasing number of new energy vehicles has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. The price of domestic rare earth market is rising, but in the near future, the prices of domestic rare earth market are rising. Large conglomerates are also cautious about pricing their products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the rectification of rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province, a major rare earth province, has been further strengthened. The supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry is tight. The price of the domestic rare earth market has risen. Domestic stakeholders are waiting for good news on policies and national reserves.

IV. Future Prospects

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection inspection will not decrease in the near future, together with the strengthening of domestic efforts to rectify the order of the rare earth industry and the tight supply. In addition, the recent rare earth market trading market has improved, but the demand for new energy vehicles has increased, and the price of rare earth market is expected to rise. Potential.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic BDO market rose first and then stabilized.  According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of BDO was 9280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 93600 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 0.86% in the month. Prices fell by 18.30% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This month, the domestic BDO market is frozen after a narrow increase. At the beginning of this month, the Kaixiang device for safety investigation due to Yima explosion parking in late July had not yet started, while the overhaul device restarted at the end of July had a low load, a low market start-up rate, factories took the opportunity to boost the market, and middlemen followed up to raise the offer. Although the trading focus rose, the downstream demand was still mainly just needed, and the increase was not significant. In mid-month, Shaanxi and Tianhua changed catalysts for short shutdown, Dongyuan shutdown maintenance, together with the alternate rise and fall of raw materials calcium carbide and methanol, the cost pressure is strong, and the factory still intends to boost the market, but the shutdown maintenance of Tunhe PBT plant, the main downstream PBT start-up rate dropped to about 50%; PTMEG as a whole started to maintain about 7-80%, the demand is limited, and the shutdown rate is about 50%. Slow digestion leads to the supply and demand game in the domestic BDO market, which is deadlocked. At the end of the month, raw material calcium carbide and methanol declined narrowly and cost support weakened. After the restart of Tianhua and Shaanhua, the load gradually increased, and the supply of goods increased. At the same time, the new production capacity of Black Cat was tested and the samples arrived at the market. The downstream market entry was cautious and warehouse replenishment was on demand. To a certain extent, the firm’s price-fixing mentality has been impacted, with stable offer and market stability as the main factors. From the current supply and demand side, there are still uncertainties about whether the new capacity can enter the market smoothly. When Dongyuan drives next month, it hasn’t heard about the planned overhaul of the equipment, and the supply may increase. Although it is about to enter the traditional peak season of Jinjiu, there is no spot atmosphere downstream, so it just needs to be purchased. In terms of price, the main stream of bulk water supply negotiations in East China is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, while that in South China is 8600-9000 yuan/ton. (Acceptance delivered)

In terms of installation, Shaanxi Ronghe BDO device with a capacity of 60,000 tons/year stopped on January 23. Due to the technical renovation of equipment, it is expected to start at the end of October.  Xinjiang Tianye plant, which has been routinely parked and repaired since mid-May, has only been in normal operation for a period of time. Other devices are tentatively scheduled to start after National Day.  Henan Kaixiang Yinyima Gasification Plant exploded and stopped for safety investigation on July 19. The restart time is uncertain. Shaanxi Bidio plant replaced catalyst on August 9 and restarted on August 13.  Sichuan Tianhua Phase II 60,000 tons/year plant changed catalyst on August 12 and started on August 17. The first phase of parking overhaul is under way. Inner Mongolia Dongyuan plant stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days. Shaanxi Black Cat has added 60,000 tons/year capacity since its trial run on August 19. Hearing samples have arrived.

Industry chain: raw materials: methanol: methanol market in Northwest China rose first and then fell this month. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia rose to 1800 yuan/ton in the first ten days of January. Enterprises shipped smoothly. Most manufacturers stopped selling. Traders maintained a positive attitude toward the market. Their willingness to stock goods was obvious. Mainstream prices in Guanzhong rose to around 2000 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers parked and repaired. Enterprises supported by low supply supported the market and kept their stocks in good condition. Position level, steady downstream delivery. In late January, with the resumption of Xianyang, Weihua and other devices, combined with the weaker impact of the futures market, downstream and traders are more cautious about receiving goods. Mainstream prices in Northwest China have fallen somewhat. Currently, mainstream transactions in Inner Mongolia have fallen to 1605 yuan/ton, and mainstream prices in Guanzhong have fallen to 1550 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream market demand is weak, and the port inventory remains high.

Calcium carbide: This month, the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole showed a downward trend, mainly affected by supply and demand game, regional price adjustment is obvious. Affected by road safety inspection in the early stage, transportation in Northwest China was under pressure. Under the pressure of high inventory, enterprises implemented preferential policies and factory prices continued to decline. In the middle and late ten days, downstream demand has increased, road security has slowed down compared with the earlier period, and enterprise shipments are smooth. Affected by address disasters, road transportation in Sichuan is hindered. Enterprises are actively purchasing in Northwest China to accelerate the consumption of inventory in Northwest China. Parts of Shandong Province are still affected by road security and transportation, and the arrival of calcium carbide is limited. But as a whole, the carbide downstream arrival is sufficient, and the procurement price of the industry as a whole shows a downward trend. Next month, as the National Day approaches, the policy impact of transportation and environmental protection will increase. Downstream overhaul, plant load start-up aggravate market expectations, the overall market supply is still sufficient, calcium carbide prices are expected to fall in mid-early September.

Downstream, Henan Kaixiang PBT device stopped on May 30, and the restart time is uncertain. Nantong Star PBT device stopped in early July for maintenance and restarted on August 16. The 60,000-ton/year PBT plant in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang stopped on August 9, and the restart time was uncertain. The PBT unit operates on two lines with a load of about 80%. The maintenance plan of Sanlong PTMEG plant in Hangzhou was delayed, and the load of other devices was about 7-8%.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, in September, whether the new black cat production capacity will enter the market smoothly remains uncertain. Dongyuan started in early September and has not heard of the planned overhaul of other devices, and the spot supply may increase. Although it is about to enter the traditional peak season of Golden Ninth, there is no spot atmosphere downstream, and it still needs to be purchased mainly. Factory price-keeping intention still exists, supply and demand continue to play a game, business association BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to be weak and stable next month, and specific adjustments will follow the changes in market supply and demand.

Price Trend

The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rebounded after falling this week. The average price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3743.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 3730 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price fell by 0.36%, 20.79% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, domestic liquefied petroleum gas fell first and then rose, rebounded slightly, and the market trading atmosphere improved.  As of August 30. The ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3180 yuan/ton, that of Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan/ton, that of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3310 yuan/ton, that of Qingdao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3390 yuan/ton, and that of Shijiazhuang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3390 yuan/ton. The company’s liquefied gas ex-factory price is 3500 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The dimethyl ether Market has fallen in succession this week, and the trading climate has continued to be poor. The cost of methanol oscillation is lower, and narrow range finishing is dominant.  Although the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has risen over the weekend, its benefits are limited. The situation of dimethyl ether is difficult to improve. Most enterprises’prices fell below 3000 yuan this week. The downstream market has a strong hollow outlook on the future market. Most of them are on demand and wait-and-see. Henan Xinlian once again implements the price floor policy, the manufacturers’shipment has been blocked continuously, and the price has fallen. This week, propane market first restrained and then rose. At the beginning of the week, propane steadily went downward and downward. The trend was weak. There was no good support for the market. The downstream supply was mostly on demand. The enthusiasm for entering the market was not high. The overall market atmosphere was low. The inventory of the manufacturers was cumulative, and the delivery of profits was the main factor. Late in the week, international crude oil rose steadily, domestic liquefied petroleum gas spot followed the upward trend, coupled with the introduction of CP price in September, butane was flat compared with last month, propane was slightly lower than last month, the decline was less than expected, which boosted the market mentality. Under the downstream buy-up mentality, replenishment into the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure eased, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory at present.

This week, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rebounded slightly after the fall. Prices fell for two consecutive days at the beginning of the week, falling by about 50-100 yuan/ton. Inventories of factories accumulated to the highest level last weekend. Petrochemical enterprises also continuously lowered prices on non-price-adjusting days to stimulate downstream market entry. Other units followed the decline, and downstream timely market replenishment, market delivery. Significant improvement, factory inventory eased. Since Wednesday, the price of international crude oil has been rising continuously, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream bullish mentality has been restored. The enthusiasm of entering the market is good, and the shipments of manufacturers are smooth.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the business association price monitoring, in the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), there were six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, the first three of which were liquefied natural gas (2.89%), Brent crude oil (2.18%) and MTBE (1.77%). There are seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are methanol (-2.34%), petroleum coke (-0.81%) and gasoline (-0.67%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.24%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts from business associations believe that, boosted by the continuous rise of international crude oil, downstream markets are active, manufacturers’shipments have improved, and production and sales are under no pressure. However, international oil prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week, which has limited market support and is expected to remain stable in the near future.