Price Trend

The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rebounded after falling this week. The average price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3743.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 3730 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price fell by 0.36%, 20.79% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, domestic liquefied petroleum gas fell first and then rose, rebounded slightly, and the market trading atmosphere improved.  As of August 30. The ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3180 yuan/ton, that of Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan/ton, that of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3310 yuan/ton, that of Qingdao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3390 yuan/ton, and that of Shijiazhuang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3390 yuan/ton. The company’s liquefied gas ex-factory price is 3500 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The dimethyl ether Market has fallen in succession this week, and the trading climate has continued to be poor. The cost of methanol oscillation is lower, and narrow range finishing is dominant.  Although the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has risen over the weekend, its benefits are limited. The situation of dimethyl ether is difficult to improve. Most enterprises’prices fell below 3000 yuan this week. The downstream market has a strong hollow outlook on the future market. Most of them are on demand and wait-and-see. Henan Xinlian once again implements the price floor policy, the manufacturers’shipment has been blocked continuously, and the price has fallen. This week, propane market first restrained and then rose. At the beginning of the week, propane steadily went downward and downward. The trend was weak. There was no good support for the market. The downstream supply was mostly on demand. The enthusiasm for entering the market was not high. The overall market atmosphere was low. The inventory of the manufacturers was cumulative, and the delivery of profits was the main factor. Late in the week, international crude oil rose steadily, domestic liquefied petroleum gas spot followed the upward trend, coupled with the introduction of CP price in September, butane was flat compared with last month, propane was slightly lower than last month, the decline was less than expected, which boosted the market mentality. Under the downstream buy-up mentality, replenishment into the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure eased, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory at present.

This week, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rebounded slightly after the fall. Prices fell for two consecutive days at the beginning of the week, falling by about 50-100 yuan/ton. Inventories of factories accumulated to the highest level last weekend. Petrochemical enterprises also continuously lowered prices on non-price-adjusting days to stimulate downstream market entry. Other units followed the decline, and downstream timely market replenishment, market delivery. Significant improvement, factory inventory eased. Since Wednesday, the price of international crude oil has been rising continuously, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream bullish mentality has been restored. The enthusiasm of entering the market is good, and the shipments of manufacturers are smooth.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the business association price monitoring, in the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), there were six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, the first three of which were liquefied natural gas (2.89%), Brent crude oil (2.18%) and MTBE (1.77%). There are seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are methanol (-2.34%), petroleum coke (-0.81%) and gasoline (-0.67%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.24%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts from business associations believe that, boosted by the continuous rise of international crude oil, downstream markets are active, manufacturers’shipments have improved, and production and sales are under no pressure. However, international oil prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week, which has limited market support and is expected to remain stable in the near future.