According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 10, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16933 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5, 2021 (propylene glycol reference price 17633 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.97%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a downward trend. The performance of just needed procurement in the field was poor, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the performance of raw material propylene oxide was stable, and the support was OK. The units in some areas resumed operation, the supply in the field increased, the downstream operating rate was low, the demand support was insufficient, and the transaction of new orders in the field was light, The game between supply and demand appears, Since the beginning of this week (the 7th), the domestic propylene glycol market price has been adjusted all the way down, and the center of gravity has been exploring downward. Until Thursday (the 9th), the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price refers to 16500-17000 yuan / ton, which is about 500-1000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Friday On the 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market slightly warmed up, some units in some areas were temporarily shut down for maintenance, the on-site supply was reduced, the trading atmosphere was improved, new orders in the downstream were increased, the propylene glycol inventory pressure was relieved, and the propylene glycol factory raised the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 200-300 yuan / ton. Up to the end of the week (December 10), the ex factory price of propylene glycol in China is around 16800-17300 yuan / ton, and the average price is 16933 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.97% during the week. At present, the overall gas buying of propylene glycol field is rising, and the supply and demand has a stable trend.

In terms of index, the propylene glycol commodity index on December 9 was 215.38, down 0.86 points from yesterday, down 30.96% from the highest point 311.97 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 115.38% from the lowest point 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent market price of propylene oxide is mainly stable. At the beginning of June, the price of raw propylene went down, the cost support was loose, and the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient, but the factory inventory was low, supporting the price, and the market operated at a stable price. With the small rise in the price of raw propylene, the cost side was slightly supported, the factory inventory was still controllable, the demand side performance was cold, more cautious, and the market was in a stalemate, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 14200-14300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 14600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with that on December 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, the raw material ring propylene market operates stably and the cost support is stable. The increase of downstream orders of some propylene glycol plants drives the positive attitude of the market. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the overall trend of propylene glycol in the field is expected to be strong, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell first and then rose this week. On December 3, the price was 5810 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 10), the price was 5800.2 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from last week and up 49.49% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil rose broadly this week, with strong cost support, boosting the domestic toluene Market. However, because a large number of ships from Northeast China are sold to East China, the inventory is accumulated and the market is under pressure. Downstream demand continues to be rigid demand, with general support. During the week, the market followed Sinopec’s price adjustment and the increase was limited.

In terms of the external market, the Asian toluene rose slightly in the external market this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $703 / ton, up US $6 / ton, or 0.86%, compared with December 3.

In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain strong crude oil demand in the future, and raised the official sales price of all crude oil grades in Asia and the United States in January. The market’s concern about the inhibition of crude oil demand by the new crown mutant strain Omicron eased, the price rebounded sharply, and the price returned to above $70 / barrel. Brent rose $5.27 / barrel, or 7.54% this week; WTI rose $5.41/barrel, or 8.16%.

povidone Iodine

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On December 10, the price of domestic goods was 14625 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.74% over last week and 15.16% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, up 55.81% over the same period last year. As of December 10, the closing prices in Asia were 814-816 us dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 832-834 US dollars / ton CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3 and 7789.2 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1.24% from last week and 36.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the new crown variant strain Omicron. Many countries strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures. Before further determining its impact, the demand for crude oil will still be limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

A large number of ships are sold in Northeast China, and the market is under pressure; The downstream demand continues to be light, and the short-term toluene price is still affected by the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene plant, downstream plant dynamics and demand, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.

This week, the lead market (12.03-12.10) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 15168.75 yuan / ton last weekend and 15418.75 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 1.65%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of futures, Lun lead showed a “V” trend, with an overall shock range of US $2182-2300 / ton. At the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure, and Lun lead fell with it. In the following week, it was boosted by the decline of LME lead inventory and stopped falling and rebounded. The trend of Shanghai lead this week is basically consistent with that of Lun lead. On Tuesday, the futures market stopped falling and rebounded, boosted by the domestic RRR reduction.

In terms of spot market, the trend this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead. Recently, the operation of the smelter is relatively stable and the supply is acceptable. With the increase of spot lead price, the profits of downstream enterprises are squeezed, and the downstream price reduction mentality is strong. Near the end of the year, the output task is basically completed, the sales situation of downstream storage enterprises is relatively general, and the enthusiasm for purchasing primary lead is slightly low, mainly on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, there are 10 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 49th week of 2021 (12.6-12.10). The top three commodities are neodymium (4.21%), lead (3.35%) and cobalt (3.31%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 7.91%), nickel (- 2.14%) and silver (- 2.07%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%, and non-ferrous commodities rose more or fell less this week.

On the whole, most electrolytic lead manufacturers at the supply side have resumed production, and the start-up of recycled lead enterprises has decreased slightly due to environmental protection factors recently. The downstream storage enterprises at the demand side started relatively stably, and still focused on maintaining rigid demand procurement. Under the weak balance of supply and demand, the price of lead may follow the trend of futures and fluctuate weakly.

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene fell this week. As of December 13, the listing price of Sinopec was 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from 6600 yuan / ton on December 3 last week. The orthobenzene market was weak and fell.

Raw material prices fell first and then rose

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene, a raw material of orthobenzene, fell first and then rose this week. The mixed xylene market stopped falling and warmed up, with an increase of 0.86% this week. The price of raw materials rose, and the cost of o-xylene stopped falling and rising; The downward pressure on the price of ortho benzene weakened and the upward momentum remained.

The downstream market stopped falling and stabilized

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose this week, and the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat, the market of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and warmed up, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride weakened, the demand for phthalic acid was general, and the downward pressure of phthalic acid weakened.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business agency, the raw material mixed xylene of o-xylene and the price of downstream phthalic anhydride recovered this week, the cost of o-xylene increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, the support for the rise of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure weakened. It is expected that the market of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price increased slightly this week, and the quotation increased from 620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 638.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.96%, an increase of 45.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week. On December 9, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 98.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.16% from the highest point of 138.78 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 211.90% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was general. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid is quoted at 870 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 450 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid is quoted at 700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid is quoted at 650 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 460 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1933.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.50%, a year-on-year increase of 91.42% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support continued to weaken. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 66750.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 62857.14 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.83%, up 90.48% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.61%, up 88.06% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose and fell with each other. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

The market outlook fell slightly

In mid December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and fall slightly. The price of upstream sulfur still fell slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Although the downstream formic acid market rose this week, the downstream bromine market has been falling. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 3 to December 10, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 9733 yuan / ton to 10166 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.45% in the week, a month on month decrease of 9.02% and a year-on-year increase of 51.74%.

The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise this week, with a slight correction over the weekend. Crude oil and pure benzene improved during the week, and the cost support was temporarily stable. Hualu Hengsheng, Haili and other devices are not exported, and the commodity supply is significantly reduced. In addition, some downstream enterprises focus on a small amount of cyclohexanone, the shipping pressure of cyclohexanone factories is reduced, and the manufacturers rise in a narrow range.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 10:

region ., Price

East China 10300-10400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 10600-10700 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10100-10200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fluctuated and strengthened. During the cycle, crude oil and styrene rose, while pure benzene rose with shocks. The market was cautious, the buying was light, and the increase of pure benzene was lower than that of upstream and downstream products.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

 
Downstream caprolactam: Recently, several caprolactam units in the north have been overhauled and reduced the load. Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical and Cangzhou Xuyang basically gradually recovered in the latter half of the year, and other units have little change temporarily. If the supply of more than units is restored in the latter half of the year, caprolactam may still be relatively abundant. The purchase of chemical fiber is still expected to be a rigid demand order.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

The cost side is temporarily stable. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is tight, but the downstream procurement demand is weak. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will be volatile.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 3, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 17633 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 28, 2021 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 18600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 967 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.20%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that at the end of November, the domestic propylene glycol market temporarily operated stably. In this week, due to the lack of downstream demand, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol field was general, and the follow-up of new orders was poor. From the beginning of the week (November 29), the focus of the domestic propylene glycol market continued to move downward, and the offer prices of propylene glycol factories also decreased one after another, There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. By the middle of the week (December 1), the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol fell to 17933 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.58% in two days. Subsequently, the propylene glycol market was weak and deadlocked, the market atmosphere was flat, and the new downstream single atmosphere was weak, which was difficult to give effective support to propylene glycol. On the 3rd, the quoted price of propylene glycol factory was lowered again, with a reduction range of 200-300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 17633 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.20% during the week. At present, the atmosphere in the propylene glycol venue is still cautious, and the overall transaction is limited.

In terms of index, the propylene glycol commodity index on December 2 was 229.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.30% from the highest point 311.97 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 129.91% from the lowest point 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, this week, after the domestic propylene oxide Market in Shandong increased slightly, it operated stably, the factory inventory was temporarily controllable, the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm was general. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 3, the average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 14600 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this week, the average price increased by 367 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.58% during the week.

Future trend analysis

At present, the raw material cyclopropane market operates stably, the cost support is stable, and the downstream unsaturated resin and polyether users mainly digest raw materials, and the demand is still cautious. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will continue to be weak and downward, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes at the supply and demand side.

This week (11.29-12.3), the domestic ethyl acetate market continued to decline and the decline deepened. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of ethyl acetate was 2.11%, mainly due to the continuous decline of raw material acetic acid price, which dragged down the downstream ethyl acetate Market. In addition, the quotations of major domestic manufacturers continued to decline during the week, the starting price of Yankuang auction was repeatedly reduced, and the transaction price was not ideal. The weekend price is in the range of 9000-9400 yuan / ton.

First, in terms of cost, domestic acetic acid fell sharply this week, down 8.22%. Most acetic acid plants operate normally, the manufacturer’s inventory is accumulated, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be purchased rationally, and the traders negotiate the shipment. The acetic acid enterprises adjust the quotation according to their own shipment situation, the actual transaction price is constantly reduced, and the on-site mentality is mainly wait-and-see. The sharp drop in acetic acid price further lowered the focus of downstream ethyl ester trading.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that in late November, the curve crossed, and the decline of ethyl acetate was slower than that of upstream acetic acid, indicating that the profits of ethyl acetate manufacturers continued to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the overall supply of ethyl acetate was sufficient this week, and the inventory of large domestic factories was still high. In order to reduce the pressure of inventory arrangement, the main large factories lowered their prices repeatedly. The range is 200-300 yuan / ton. Social inventory pressure is also high, mainly due to the weak downstream demand caused by the seasonal off-season.

From the demand side, the domestic downstream demand for acetic acid has not improved much this week. Some downstream industries have entered the traditional off-season, and the superposition of environmental protection policies has affected some downstream purchase demand. Ethyl acetate only maintained the just needed shipment, and the delivery speed of the manufacturer further slowed down.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that the recent cost acetic acid market may continue to be negative, especially affected by the off-season demand, the short-term short-term pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and the price of ethyl acetate is expected to remain at the bottom.

Adipic acid East China market price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (11.29-12.3), the price of adipic acid in China decreased slightly, and adipic acid in East China decreased by 0.31% this week. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 12500-13100 yuan / ton. The main reason is that the cost continues to fall, the supply increases and the demand is low.

In terms of market supply, adipic acid operating rate continued to increase this week, and the overall operating rate has increased from less than 60% last month to about 65% at present. This week, the utilization efficiency of Shenma and Jiangsu Haili units was improved, which brought a certain supply increment. At the same time, Chongqing Huafeng unit has also been restarted this week, and the supply is recovering. The expected increase in supply has brought a negative atmosphere, and the market supply performance is relatively loose.

Adipic acid industry chain trend chart

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industrial chain is still weak this week, especially the price of upstream products has decreased significantly, and the downstream PA66 has also decreased strongly. On the premise of continuous decline at the cost end, weakness at the downstream and continuous cost transmission, the whole industrial chain has the power to continue to decline, but the decline of adipic acid is obviously weaker than that at the upstream and downstream, and the profits at the enterprise end are still relatively considerable.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

Cyclohexanone market trend chart

The prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell this week, but the decline was larger than last week, especially cyclohexanone. According to the monitoring of business society, cyclohexanone fell by 5.19% this week. Cyclohexanone is oversupplied, manufacturers’ inventory pressure is too high, and the price continues to decline. Pure benzene fell by 2.02% this week. The decline in cost weakens the price support of adipic acid, but the manufacturer has improved the profit. At present, the profit of adipic acid remains at a high level.

PA66 market trend chart

Terminal demand: according to the data of business agency, the domestic PA66 market fell in early December, and the spot price of individual brands decreased significantly. As of December 3, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 38500 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 1.54%. At present, the operating rate of the industry is basically unchanged compared with the previous period. Mainly affected by the slowdown in demand, buyers took the goods slowly, sellers’ confidence weakened, and the offer decreased. The short downstream is the root cause of the weak adipic acid price.

In the later stage, the business society believes that in the near future, both cost and supply and demand are bad for the adipic acid market, the price of raw materials is lower, and the supply is affected by the expected warming of plant restart. In the later stage, there may be oversupply, and adipic acid is expected to fall in the near future.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price first rose and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 2475.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2504.00 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 1.17%, and then fell to 2498.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.24%, a year-on-year increase of 37.50%. Overall, the urea market has twists and turns this week and has a downward trend over the weekend. On December 5, the urea commodity index was 116.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.63% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 108.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2450 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2480 yuan / ton this weekend, up from last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 7363.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 6383.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 13.31%, a year-on-year increase of 51.98% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1085.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 66.35% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4380.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4630.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 5.71%, up 46.21% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 17200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16126.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 6.24%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly at the end of the month, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was accelerated, large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plant at the end of the month, the inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. From the perspective of supply: the gas price of gas head enterprises increases, the maintenance increases, and the urea supply decreases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is better, the urea supply is insufficient, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the first ten days of December, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.