This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 slightly declined. As of January 26th, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 15310 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease compared to the previous week. This week, the industrial silicon market continued to weaken. On the one hand, downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking and procurement, and the downstream photovoltaic installation speed did not meet expectations at the beginning of the year, driving a decrease in demand for photovoltaic modules and a greater willingness to replenish inventory and lower prices; On the other hand, some silicon factories have resumed production, increasing inventory pressure and weakening market transactions, resulting in a weakening of spot prices.

 

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On the 26th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

 

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15100-15200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15150 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15000-15200 yuan/ton, with an average of 15100 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15700~15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

 

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of January 25th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 313, with an overall start-up rate of 41.7%, an increase of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. This week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces has continued to increase, but due to the impact of northern air pollution, the operating range is limited, and some insulation silicon furnaces have been completely shut down. The supply of industrial silicon has not increased significantly.

 

In terms of inventory:

As of January 26th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 352000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 109000 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 243000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 6000 tons compared to the previou

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s week.

 

In terms of demand:

 

This week, the price of polycrystalline silicon has slightly increased, mainly driven by N-type materials, while the price of P-type materials continues to remain stable. Currently, downstream silicon wafer companies are still operating, but they are facing some inventory pressure. The potential reduction in production in the silicon wafer sector in the future may limit the space above silicon material prices. However, the current stable production of polycrystalline silicon enterprises still shows a slight increase in the consumption of industrial silicon.

 

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased, with the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference around 15040 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon has remained stable for the week, and the expected operating rate for next week is basically stable. Multiple individual factories have released purchase orders during the week, and the mainstream transaction focus has decreased. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and most aluminum alloy factories have begun to enter a holiday mode. The duration of the Spring Festival holiday is mostly concentrated in about one to two weeks, and there are also a few cases of continuous operation, as well as nearly a month of shutdown during the holiday. However, in the early stage, aluminum alloy has already stocked up on industrial silicon raw materials, and the demand for industrial silicon procurement by aluminum alloy has become weak.

 

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, as the holiday approaches, the overall operating rate is at a low level; On the demand side, downstream restocking has basically ended, and there may be scattered restocking in the market, resulting in weak market transactions and reduced demand release. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure is not significant. At present, the cost side support is temporarily stored, and it is expected that industrial silicon will mainly operate with weak fluctuations before the year.

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