Price trend in 2023:

 

Benzalkonium chloride

The domestic lithium hydroxide market is sluggish in 2023. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 553333.31 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023. On December 31, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.86% in the year’s market.

 

In the first half of the year, upstream lithium carbonate operated weakly in January, weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market. Domestic downstream procurement intentions were not high, with primary demand transactions, and lithium hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The decline in upstream lithium carbonate prices in February has dragged down market sentiment, coupled with weak domestic demand, resulting in limited actual market transactions and mostly low-priced orders, weakening the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations. In March, the downward trend of upstream lithium carbonate continued, and the support for lithium hydroxide weakened again. Manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders for transactions, and the market purchasing atmosphere was sluggish. Downstream enterprises had a mentality of buying up but not falling down, resulting in poor actual transactions and weak market performance. In mid to early April, the sluggish market for upstream lithium carbonate continued, with insufficient support for lithium hydroxide. The market supply was relatively abundant, the demand side was weak, and the mentality of the industry was not good. The high price transactions in the market were under pressure, and the weak market continued. In May, the upstream lithium carbonate market mainly saw an upward trend, providing strong support for the lithium hydroxide market. Manufacturers mainly executed long orders, while downstream inquiries showed a slight increase in enthusiasm. Business owners had a stronger attitude towards price support, leading to an increase in enterprise quotations and a strong demand for spot market transactions. In early June, the cost support continued, driving up the price of lithium hydroxide. Manufacturers mainly focused on long-term orders, while downstream demand followed suit. The market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

 

In the second half of the year, the lithium hydroxide market declined in July due to the drag of upstream lithium carbonate and weak demand. In August, there was insufficient cost support, with production enterprises mainly focusing on long-term orders and downstream material factories not following up on demand. The purchasing mentality was cautious, and the market continued to decline. Under the dual drag of cost and demand in September, the lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly. After the Double Festivals in October, the upstream lithium carbonate market rose, boosting the mentality of industry players and driving the lithium hydroxide market to slightly follow suit. However, there was no significant improvement in demand, and cost support weakened in the latter half of the year. Supply side construction was low, with more orders delivered. Terminal demand did not meet expectations, and the market weakened again. The market fundamentals were weak in November, with a light trading atmosphere and a continued downward trend in the market. In December, the cost support was limited, and downstream demand for nickel materials was insufficient due to high demand. The market shipments were average, and merchants cautiously followed up with low prices when receiving goods. Holders stimulated orders with low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

 

Price forecast for 2024:

 

Supply side: China is a major producer of lithium hydroxide globally, and in recent years, the annual total production of lithium hydroxide in China has continued to grow. In the second half of 2023, with the low market for lithium hydroxide, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has decreased, and a few lithium salt factories have switched to producing lithium carbonate. The operating rate of the lithium hydroxide industry is low, and the total production of lithium hydroxide in China in 2023 is about 283000 tons. With the expected increase in some new production capacity in 2024, it is expected that the overall production of lithium hydroxide in 2024 may show an increasing trend.

Demand side: Lithium hydroxide is an important raw material for manufacturing power batteries, glass, ceramics, and other products. In 2023, the demand for high nickel vehicle models was sluggish, and the increase in demand side was less than expected, dragging down the lithium hydroxide market. It is expected that the demand side will gradually recover in 2024.

 

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium hydroxide in China from January to December 2023 was 3805558 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 23.32%. The total export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from January to December 2023 was 130009396 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 39.22%. It is expected that lithium hydroxide exports will increase in 2024.

 

Upstream lithium carbonate:

 

Comparison chart of annual price trends of lithium hydroxide and upstream lithium carbonate in 2023

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of lithium carbonate will decline in 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 94000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.35% compared to the average price of 504000 yuan/ton on January 1. From the above chart, it can be seen that the trend of lithium hydroxide and upstream lithium carbonate in 2023 is basically similar, and the lithium carbonate market has a significant impact on the lithium hydroxide market.

 

In summary, the production capacity or growth expectation of the lithium hydroxide market in 2024 is expected. Lithium hydroxide, as a key material for manufacturing high nickel batteries, has broad market prospects in the future. However, the global consumer market is becoming more rational, and there is still uncertainty in demand. The lithium hydroxide market is full of opportunities and challenges. It is expected that the trend of the lithium hydroxide market in 2024 may still follow the upstream lithium carbonate market, and more attention still needs to be paid to costs Guidelines for upstream and downstream enterprises to start production and export.

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