1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on April 17 was 5000 yuan / ton, which was flat on the third day of the week (13 days), up 7.76% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On April 19, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 109.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.25% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.90% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market this week is average and the price is stable. At present, the yellow phosphorus at the end of raw material has increased slightly, but has little impact on the phosphoric acid market. At present, due to the impact of special events, the downstream demand is not good, the focus of transaction moves down, and some phosphoric acid enterprises reduce prices and make shipment. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4700-5100 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was lowered to varying degrees.

Industry chain: the number of yellow phosphorus enterprises started to increase, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The market of yellow phosphorus in various regions has increased slightly. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. In April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders were generally traded in the market, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. The overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market has basically recovered as before. Recently, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate ore has not been significantly improved, and the overall market trend is weak,.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the raw material end is up slightly at present, but the phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to the drag of demand.