1、 Price trend
Pure benzene returned to weakness this week, with prices falling in a row in the week, according to data from the business club’s large list. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price: 3350 yuan / ton); this weekend (April 26), the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% compared with last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: after two weeks of hoarding, downstream enterprises have sufficient pure benzene inventory, and this week’s pure benzene market negotiation is light. In addition, crude oil plummeted on Tuesday, and the price of external market fell sharply, driving the price of domestic pure benzene down. Since the middle of March, the port inventory of pure benzene has continued to grow, and the source of imported goods has continued to hit the domestic market. Sinopec’s price is at a low level this week, with no price adjustment yet.
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3. External market: the external market fluctuated violently this week, plummeted at the beginning of the week, and rebounded sharply in the second half of the week. On Friday (April 24), South Korea imported 331.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 14 US dollars / ton, or 4.05% from April 17; East China imported 341 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 31 US dollars / ton, or 8.33% from April 17.
3. Crude oil: on Monday, the US oil may contract fell to a negative value unprecedented, crude oil inventory grew rapidly, and the lack of remaining storage capacity led to a sharp sell-off in the market. Later, it was reported that many countries issued policies to encourage crude oil production to reduce, and the output decreased, which led to the recovery of oil price, but the increase was not enough to bear the drop. Brent fell $4.13, or 20.51%, this week from April 17, while WTI fell $8.09, or 32.32%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 76.02% and WTI by 72.12%.
4. Downstream industry: styrene rebounded after a slight decline this week, with a slight decline as a whole. The price in Shandong on Friday was 5000 yuan / ton, down 2.91% from last week.
In the week, the aniline plant was restarted, the market supply increased and the price was lowered twice. Over the weekend, the price in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 5100 yuan / ton, down 7.83% from last week.
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3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: driven by multi-party production reduction agreements, crude oil reserves may rebound, but in the short term, it can not offset the negative impact of sharp contraction in demand, and the oil market can not get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, it is the off-season of crude oil consumption, the recovery of the market is blocked greatly, and it is still low in the short term.
Near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may have a certain boost. It is expected that the pure benzene market will maintain weak operation in the short term, with a small rebound potential. Pay attention to the later trend of crude oil and external market.
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