1、 Price trend
From June 1 to 5, 2020, the price of coke market in Shanxi Province kept stable operation at the beginning of the week, and rose by 1% at the end of the week. The price at the beginning of the week was 1663.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 1680 yuan / ton.
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On June 4, the coke commodity index was 87.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.35% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 151.98% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Trend analysis
Summary of domestic main coke market price on June 5 (unit: yuan / ton)
Price of regional specifications on June 5 is up and down compared with the same period of last month
Shanghai secondary metallurgical coke 1930250
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1990 250
Xuzhou secondary metallurgical coke 1900 250
Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1960 250
Secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang 1840 200
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1900 200
Taiyuan secondary metallurgical coke 1690 150
Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1740150
Henan Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke 1860 160
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1860 60
Secondary metallurgical coke in Jinzhong 1650 150
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1710 150
Tangshan second grade metallurgical coke 1830 200
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1880 200
Shenyang secondary metallurgical coke 1760 150
Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1820 150
As of Friday, most regions have implemented the coke price increase, with the increase range of about 50-100 yuan / ton. On June 4, Xuzhou took the lead in starting the price adjustment this month, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. Xuzhou issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the transformation, upgrading and high-quality development of the chemical steel and coal industry in the whole province on August 7, 2018, which requires that Jiangsu Xuzhou coke enterprises retain 8.59 million tons by the end of June 2020 As a result, local supply in Xuzhou is tight, which drives the price of coke up. The policy of coal production is further implemented in the neighboring Shandong Province. At present, there are 24 million tons of coal production in Shandong Province. In the later stage, nearly half of the production capacity is gradually limited. The overall coke inventory in Shandong Province is low, the sales situation is good, and the local supply is in short supply. In addition to the limited production in some parts of Shanxi Province, the coke enterprises in other parts of China have a high operating rate and stable production. At present, most of the sales are to give priority to old customers.
In terms of demand, the blast furnace operation of downstream steel plants is still high, and the “two sessions” benefits are gradually released. In recent years, the blast furnace operation rate of steel plants has been maintained at more than 90%, and the demand for coke is good. In Jiangsu and Shandong areas, there is an external coke mining situation, local market supply is tight, and the demand for coke is well supported.
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Summary of coke market price in some domestic ports (unit: yuan / ton)
Port varieties
sunshine
June 1st
June 5th
Trade level 1
Trade level II
Trade level 1
Trade level II
one thousand nine hundred and fifty
one thousand eight hundred and fifty
one thousand nine hundred and fifty
one thousand eight hundred and fifty
Tianjin
Trade level 1
Trade level
Trade level 1
Trade level
one thousand and nine hundred
two thousand
one thousand nine hundred and fifty
two thousand and fifty
Port prices rose slightly this week, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. Affected by domestic production restriction policies, some traders are reluctant to sell. Recently, local coke prices have risen all the way, and the price advantage of imported coke has begun to show. Recently, the market inquiry atmosphere is relatively strong.
3、 Future forecast
According to the business association, at present, there are more limited production areas in China, and the local supply of coke in East China is in a serious tense situation. With the further expansion of supply gap, the coke demand of downstream steel plants is just high and stable. However, due to the high cost pressure of both iron ore and coke in the near future, the steel plant may enter a high consolidation trend in the short term. It is expected that the coke price will be stronger in the future and stronger in the fourth round The range of prices will be further increased. With the implementation of production restriction in place gradually, there is still a possibility of slight increase in subsequent prices.
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