Last week (6.1-5), the domestic polysilicon market fell. According to the monitoring of the business agency, polysilicon fell by 3.14%, mainly due to the impact of cheap imported goods. At present, the polysilicon price has dropped by 22% compared with the peak in mid March. At present, the price of primary polysilicon is 38000-40000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of June, domestic polysilicon manufacturers have recovered stability and maintained stable price operation. However, the price of imported silicon materials has successively reached a new low, further impacting the domestic market. According to statistics, the RMB price of non China polysilicon in May has dropped by about 5000 yuan / ton. However, the price of polysilicon imported materials continued to decline in early June, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton in the first week of June. The underlying weakness of the market is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the demand for downstream procurement further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. According to statistics, the total export volume of components fell by – 18.3% month on month in April, and the export situation is expected to remain unsatisfactory in May. So the market price of polysilicon is still at the bottom.

From both sides of supply and demand, first of all, at the beginning of June, polycrystalline silicon supply is still abundant. However, due to continuous maintenance or load reduction production of several polycrystalline silicon enterprises in April and may, market inventory and manufacturer inventory have declined to varying degrees. At present, the supply pressure is obviously relieved compared with that in May. According to data, domestic polysilicon production in May was 32000 tons, down more than 10% month on month. Moreover, at present, the maintenance manufacturers are still in a high position. As of June 6, there are still more than 5 domestic polysilicon manufacturers with maintenance or limited production, including Xinjiang Daquan, Dongfang hope, new special energy, Sichuan Yongxiang, etc. Therefore, it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will enter the end of de stocking in June, and the supply pressure may be further eased, which may bring some good price.

In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, the polysilicon import volume in April and may remained at a low level. According to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis and 34% on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, with the influence of overseas maintenance enterprises, including Wacker and Malaysia OCI, the import volume will continue to decrease. This will also greatly relieve the pressure on the domestic polysilicon supply end.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still relatively weak, especially the overseas demand still hasn’t recovered to the level before the epidemic. The delay or cancellation of overseas orders at the domestic component end has led to the successive reduction of the operating rate of domestic component manufacturers, which is transmitted to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain. Especially at present, the epidemic in India is becoming increasingly serious. Last week, India announced that the “ban” will continue to be delayed for one month to In July, as the main export area of China’s photovoltaic products, the demand for polycrystalline products in this area decreased significantly, which greatly affected the export. However, Europe and the United States have restarted their economy in an orderly manner, and the resumption of production has also made weak demand develop in a good way. Overall, the silicon market in June may be significantly better than the previous two months. At present, domestic order demand is still dominant, especially affected by the “630″ policy dividend, downstream photovoltaic rush to install into the countdown, downstream demand is also picking up, which can be proved by the signing of polysilicon orders. In June, the signing of polysilicon orders by mainstream manufacturers was significantly better than last month, and the main orders of domestic mainstream polysilicon enterprises have been basically signed in the past two weeks.

In the later stage, the business community believes that the current polysilicon supply-demand contradiction is gradually improving. With the overhaul of the enterprise, the polysilicon inventory removal cycle will come to an end, and the medium and short-term supply pressure may be resolved. However, the demand side presents an uneven situation of “internal and external”. At present, the resumption of construction and production in China will stimulate the photovoltaic industry to a certain extent and drive the demand for silicon materials to a certain extent. On the contrary, overseas demand is still complex, mainly because the trend of overseas epidemic is still not effectively controlled, especially in India, where the epidemic is more serious, the demand for photovoltaic products in China is shrinking, the price of order volume reduction is falling, coupled with the increase of overseas anti-dumping efforts for photovoltaic products in China, the export situation in the short term is still not optimistic, and it is comprehensively predicted that polysilicon may complete the bottoming process in the short term, In the near future, due to oversold and easing of supply-demand contradiction, the possibility of price rebound cannot be ruled out.