1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business news agency’s block list, the domestic toluene price rose first and then fell this week, which was lower than that of last week. On December 20, the price of toluene was 3850 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (December 27), the price was 3770 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 2.08% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene in North China, South China and central China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while that in East China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. During the week, crude oil fell due to bad news, which led to the weakness of toluene external market, while the domestic toluene market fell. This week, the price of TDI and PX fell. Holders of toluene are reluctant to sell at low prices and watch the price trend of crude oil and refined oil.

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was lower than that of last week, and the price of domestic goods was 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 0.78% compared with that of last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is cold, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, and the future market is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, and the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, down 35.82% year on year. PX market based on demand procurement, price stability. As of December 24, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $601-591 / T FOB Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of new crown vaccine research and development, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Friday is Christmas, crude oil market demand is expected to decline, coupled with uncertainty in the crude oil market, toluene is expected to be weak next week. The downstream demand is weak, and the toluene price has a big resistance to break through the upward trend, focusing on the trend of gasoline price.