In 2021, the trend of adipic acid in China was full of twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of adipic acid in East China increased by 52% from 8000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 12200 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The rising price level is mainly affected by the rising cost and tight supply at this stage. From the perspective of the whole year, the unit operating rate of adipic acid enterprises maintained a reasonable level, and the supply and demand were basically balanced. From the monthly k-column chart of adipic acid, the increase months of the whole year are mostly, and the increase is mainly concentrated in February and March in the first quarter and September and October in the second half of the year.
Let’s learn about the trend of adipic acid in the whole year:
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In the first half of the year, the overall domestic adipic acid market rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, the adipic acid Market performed well, mainly affected by the tightening of supply before the Spring Festival and the boost of downstream stock demand, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. Although Hualu has new units put into operation during this period, due to the opening of demand, both supply and demand are booming; The superimposed crude oil drives the continuous rise of upstream pure benzene. Adipic acid still rose strongly. According to the monitoring of business society, from the beginning of the year to mid March, the price of adipic acid in East China rose from 8000 yuan to 11500 yuan, an increase of more than 3000 yuan.
Since late March, the market began to decline gradually. Mainly due to the decline in oil prices, But it obviously deviates from the upstream pure benzene market (see the figure below for the price comparison between pure benzene and adipic acid). The more important reason is that the pressure of oversupply has gradually become prominent. The production of new units has led to an unprecedented increase in market supply. The new Hualu line has been put into operation, and the old Hongding and Liaohua lines have been restarted. However, the demand side is also out of touch. The downstream demand in the second quarter was low. Due to the unprecedented high price of adipic acid, it is positive for terminal demand and downstream procurement Sex brings pressure. However, due to the deviation of raw materials from the market, the decline of adipic acid was limited. The price at the end of June was about 10000 yuan, which is still a distance from the price at the beginning of the year.
In the second half of the year, adipic acid rose violently and the price fell slightly at the end of the year. From the end of June to the middle of July, the market rebounded, which was mainly affected by too many large plants and the decline of operating rate. However, from late July to early September, with the resumption of production of Shandong Hongding, Jiangsu Haili and Yangmei Taihua units, and the weak shock of upstream raw material pure benzene, the price was guided downward. But on the whole, the amplitude of adipic acid in the three months from June to early September is not large, about 1000 yuan.
Since mid September, adipic acid market started again and continued until mid November. The increase was strong, and the price generally rose from about 10000 yuan to the highest 13400 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 3000 yuan. The main reason is that, on the one hand, the price of upstream pure benzene has risen sharply, and more importantly, the supply and demand are both positive: on the supply side, the unit has entered the maintenance period. Throughout September, Haili is in the maintenance period. In October, Shenma and Tianli high tech units are in the maintenance period, and Tangshan Zhonghao two units are inspected in turn, resulting in an unprecedented reduction in market supply. In addition, the demand side performance is also commendable. The price of PA66 has increased significantly, and the supply is in short supply, resulting in the soaring price of adipic acid.
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After mid November, the price of adipic acid fluctuated and fell back. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell sharply. In addition, the supply pressure is highlighted again. With the improvement of utilization efficiency of Shenma and Jiangsu Haili units, Chongqing Huafeng unit has also been restarted. With the increase of supply, the downstream has entered the traditional off-season, the procurement has gradually slowed down, and the contradiction between supply and demand has appeared. The price has fallen from 13000 yuan to 12000 yuan / ton by the end of the year.
2022 outlook
In the future, business analysts believe that adipic acid market may still maintain a high level in 2022. On the one hand, with the weakening trend of the epidemic, it may usher in high oil prices. High oil prices will generally benefit downstream chemicals. The prices of pure benzene, cyclohexanone and other products are expected to remain at a high level, and the high cost of raw materials will continue to benefit adipic acid.
In addition, from the supply side, the operating rate of adipic acid plant is generally lower than 70% in most of 2021, and the utilization efficiency of the plant is not high. It can be seen that there is a certain overcapacity in the market. So supply may still be a constraint on the market.
On the demand side, it is expected that the economy will continue to recover next year, and the impact of the epidemic will continue to weaken. Downstream PA66 and polyurethane may grow slowly, but due to the positive impact of environmental protection policies, the field of degradable plastics (PBAT) may grow significantly. However, due to the slowdown of economic growth, terminal demand should also be treated with caution.
Considering comprehensively, the adipic acid price trend may continue to rise in 2022, and the period may be different by stages due to the change of enterprise operating rate. But the overall level may be higher than this year.
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