1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose broadly after falling in the first half of this month, and maintained a narrow upward trend until the end of the month in the second half of this month. On December 1, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9300-9500 yuan / ton; On December 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.78% over the beginning of the month and 23.63% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
| povidone Iodine |
Raw material, pure benzene: affected by the negative impact of the continuous increase of port inventory, the price of pure benzene rose for many times this month and fell back. At the end of the month, the inventory accumulated to a high level, and the inventory pressure was obvious. During the month, the market hyped that new downstream units were put into operation, driving the positive rise of pure benzene market. Affected by the U.S. gold market at the end of the month, Asian pure benzene rose, and the domestic market rose to a high of this month. On December 1, the price was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (average price 6340 yuan / ton); on December 30, the price was 6950-7100 yuan / ton (average price 7020 yuan / ton), an increase of 10.73% this month and 66.98% over the same period last year.
Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid fell in shock this month, and the price fell broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2533.33 yuan / ton on December 1 and 2250 yuan / ton on December 30, down 11.18% from the beginning of the month and up 9.76% from the same period last year.
At the beginning of the month, the bearish aniline market continued, the downstream buying was weak, the priority consumption inventory was given priority, and the weak aniline fell. However, with the rise in the price of pure benzene at the raw material end and the replenishment of stocks at the downstream bargain hunting, the purchasing sentiment increased, the inventory of aniline enterprises was released rapidly, and the price rebounded.
Affected by the Winter Olympics and environmental protection policies, the downstream operating rate of aniline decreased slightly, and the demand for aniline fell. Some enterprises shut down aniline plants, and the supply and demand reached a relatively stable state. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and aniline maintained a narrow upward trend in the second half of the month.
| Melamine |
3、 Future forecast
Raw material, pure benzene: in the short term, the Asian pure benzene market will continue to be affected by the US gold plate, and the price will remain high. However, at present, there are still a large number of shipments of pure benzene in transit. In the later stage, the port inventory will continue to increase, the inventory pressure will not decrease, and the market may be restricted. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to continue to rise. Beware of the possibility of price decline after the good news dissipates.
Nitric acid: near the end of the year, the goods in the acid market are not good, and nitric acid may continue to operate at a low level.
Shutdown of Aniline Unit and small drop in supply; The downstream operating rate decreases slightly, the demand is general, and the supply and demand is temporarily stable. In the short term, the price trend of raw materials is strong. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, it may drive aniline to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.
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