In 2021, the average price of 1# lead ingot in East China was 14862.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 15256.25 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 2.65%.

 

In 2021, affected by overseas economic recovery, carbon neutralization and other policies, most metal markets continued their upward trend for 20 years, especially copper and aluminum reached new highs for many years. However, the impact of macro policies on lead in the past 21 years was limited, mainly affected by supply and demand and other fundamentals. Restricted by inventory, the increase during the year was limited. The core fluctuation range in 21 years is still 14300-16000 yuan / ton. During the year, three highs were set, respectively in early March, late July and mid October. The highest point of the year was 15483 yuan / ton on July 20, and the lowest point of the year was 14325 yuan / ton on September 22. The maximum amplitude of the year was 7.48% and the total annual increase was 2.65%. From the price curve of 21 years, the lead ingot showed wide shock in the first half of 21 years, and hit the bottom and rebounded in the second half of 21 years.

 

On December 31, the lead commodity index was 93.15, up 0.07 points from yesterday, down 30.49% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), and up 24.82% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

 

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

 

EDTA

Looking at the monthly K-bar chart of the lead market in 2021, the lead ingot Market rose and fell in half in 2021, rising for 6 months and declining for 6 months. The largest increase occurred in October, with a single month increase of 8.51%; The biggest decline was in August, with a monthly decline of 3.82%.

 

At the beginning of 21 years, the lead ingot Market has continued the tight supply of raw materials for 20 years. The lead ingot Market has been restricted by lead concentrate and waste batteries at the supply end all year, and the overall supply is tight. However, the downstream situation in the same period is not optimistic. The continuous accumulation of lead ingots has led to difficulties in following up. Since January, the sales of downstream battery enterprises have increased, the accumulation of lead ingots has been suspended, the downstream demand has improved, the negotiations in the spot lead market have increased, and the market price trend is good. However, in the later stage, due to the impact of public health events in Hebei, the transportation was limited. Many refineries in Hebei Province entered the maintenance in advance, the overall operating rate declined, the demand for raw materials began to weaken, and the market price gradually entered the downward cycle. Since mid January, with the gradual recovery of transportation and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for goods, and the spot lead price began to fluctuate and rise. However, towards the end of the month, downstream manufacturers successively entered the maintenance or shutdown, and the manufacturers that did not shut down also announced the shutdown time. Their willingness to prepare raw materials declined. They mainly purchased a small amount, and most of them were long-term cooperative customers. Only Henan and other areas that do not stop work during holidays have a slightly better transaction. In this environment, the price of lead in the first half of 2021 will fluctuate, and the market began to look forward to the coming traditional peak season to break the current market deadlock.

 

The reason why the lead light peak season is so obvious is mainly due to the influence of downstream battery sales, and the application of batteries is mainly in cars and some battery cars. The consumer demand for travel in summer has been obvious in China, and summer is the main season to replace batteries. However, this year’s summer continued to be sluggish in the peak season, and even the price fell in the peak season, mainly due to the dual impact of the shortage of chips in the automotive industry and the surge in sales of new energy vehicles this year.

 

From the comparison chart of lead ingot price trend from July to November 2016-2021, it can be seen intuitively that the overall trend of the traditional peak season in 21 years is still different from that in previous years. Generally speaking, it is not prosperous in the peak season, or even the price in the peak season declines. The market ushered in an upward trend only after October. The influencing factor of this trend is not that the downstream demand is good, but that on the supply side. From September to mid October, the main domestic primary lead smelting enterprises ushered in centralized maintenance. With the continuous loss of recycled lead enterprises after the early lead price fell, and the supply contraction caused by factors such as power and production restriction, the domestic social inventory continued to fall from the high level, It led to the only wave of obvious market in the year. After reaching the bottom, it rebounded and the lead price rose rapidly.

 

In 2021, the trend of most metal commodities is closely related to inventory, and lead is no exception. In terms of the basic factors of the current market, we expect that the supply of lead ingots in the short term will be jointly affected by the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games and transportation. In the short term, the supply recovery speed is slow and the inventory growth is slow. During the Spring Festival, most of the downstream manufacturers will stop production and have holidays according to the practice over the years, so the consumption will decline to a certain extent. Under the state of weak balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the lead price will still maintain the trend of shock consolidation. In the long run, the lead supply will probably maintain the situation of oversupply in 2022, and the application of new energy vehicles will mainly be lithium batteries. In the long run, the lead price will have some resistance to rise.

Sodium Molybdate

 

Relevant data:

 

China is relatively rich in lead mineral resources and has a large annual output. However, because overseas lead mines have certain price advantages, a large number of lead mines must be imported from abroad every year. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2021, China imported about 1127000 tons of lead concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 9.36%. The top three import source countries of China’s lead concentrate are the United States, Russia and Peru.

 

Since 15 years ago, the output of recycled lead has started to increase rapidly. By the end of 21, China’s processing capacity of recycled lead raw materials had reached about 13 million tons, an increase of 150% over 2017. The production data of the whole year of 21 has not been released, but from the production data of the previous November, there is no doubt that the output of recycled lead will reach a new high in 2021.

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