1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 14800 yuan / ton on June 1, and 13800 yuan / ton on June 30. The domestic caprolactam price fell 6.76% this month.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic caprolactam prices fell this month. In the first half of June, the caprolactam market rose after stable consolidation. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, the cost side of caprolactam is well supported, and the quotation of enterprises is increased. Most manufacturers shut down their units for maintenance, and the supply of caprolactam is reduced. Some enterprises mainly produce and use caprolactam for their own use. In the second half of June, the price of caprolactam fell rapidly. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline, and the cost side of caprolactam weakened. Some manufacturers’ devices were shut down for maintenance, and the supply of caprolactam was tight. The downstream PA6 device has reduced the load, the procurement has decreased, and the on-site trading volume is relatively small. As of June 30, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 15400 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 15400 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year, the unit is normally started up, and the acceptance is self picked up. The price of Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid is 15400 yuan / ton, and 450000 tons / year. The unit is normally started up, and the acceptance is self picked up. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam apron price is 14300 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s device capacity is 300000 tons / year. It is accepted and sent to East China.

Pure benzene, the raw material, rose rapidly this month and fell in shock. Due to the continuous rise of crude oil in the early stage, the price of pure benzene in the outer disk rose, the import of pure benzene decreased, the ports continued to destock, and the minimum inventory in East China ports fell to 48000 tons. The high pressure in the lower reaches, coupled with demand support, stimulated the continuous rise of pure benzene to exceed 10000 yuan. In the later stage, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the superposition of downstream losses expanded, some units were economically reduced and shut down, the demand fell, and the vibration of pure benzene fell. Sinopec’s pure benzene increased three times in the first ten days of this month, rising to 10000 yuan / ton, and began to decline in the middle and late days, reaching 9600 yuan / ton at the end of the month (Hebei and Shandong to 9250 yuan / ton).

Downstream PA6 finished in shock in the first and middle of this month, and the decline was concentrated in the second half of this month, but in fact, the domestic market has been weak since the middle of this month. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants was generally stable at 70% this month. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, and the profits of production enterprises are under pressure. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, and the international crude oil price began to weaken due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, which immediately affected the sharp decline of pure benzene and caprolactam upstream of the industrial chain.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business agency believe that the price of raw material pure benzene continues to fall, and the cost support is weak. The demand of downstream PA6 polymerization enterprises is poor, there are few transactions on the floor, and the spot supply of caprolactam is acceptable. Dominated by negative factors, the caprolactam market is expected to be weak in the short term.