Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell after rising in June, and the spot prices of various brands generally fell. As of June 30, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13150 yuan / ton, up or down -1.5% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell in June. The international crude oil price callback, styrene port increment is limited, and the overall inventory situation is relatively ideal. At present, the output of domestic styrene plants is at a relatively low level, lower than that of the same period last year. However, in July, some maintenance devices will restart, and the port inventory has been declining. The overall inventory of styrene is relatively ideal, and the price continues to be high.

The price of acrylonitrile still fell this month. The overhaul of some enterprises was completed in June, and domestic enterprises started high. The pressure on acrylonitrile supply remained. Demand tends to be lagging and weak, and there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In the second half of the month, there were individual maintenance production lines, and the decline narrowed. However, on the whole, it is difficult to change the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

In June, the domestic butadiene market also rose first and then fell. Affected by the downstream profits and poor operation, the demand side of butadiene market is difficult to have a positive boost. At the same time, with the export of some goods from northeast and East China, the market supply increment dragged down the market. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market may still fall further in the short term.

In June, the upstream three material trends of ABS cost side were poor. In addition, affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the crude oil price fluctuated, which was bad for the oil and chemical industry chain, and the overall cost support of ABS weakened. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes this month, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. At the beginning of the month, the health incident in East China eased, and the industry mentality was strengthened, which stimulated the spot offer to rise. However, in the second half of the month, the off-season market of the industry gradually expanded, and the on-site demand contracted. Merchants give up profits and lower the focus of ABS offer. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market fell after rising in June, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.