Price trends:
The price of acetic anhydride rose steadily in June, according to the data of business associations. As of June 28, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 5066.67 yuan/ton, which was 4633.33 yuan/ton compared with the price quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of the month. The price rose by 9.35%, and the price fell by 36.96% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Market analysis:
Product analysis:
On June 28, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 100.42, which was the same as yesterday. It was 39.41% lower than the cyclical peak of 165.73 points (2018-06-19), and 21.60% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date). As of June 28, most of the region’s ex-factory quotations were between 5000 and 5200 yuan/ton, with the actual transaction price rising. The market quotation is the reference price, and the actual transaction price is based on the actual negotiation. At the end of June, some acetic anhydride factories stopped their equipment, the starting rate dropped, and the supply of acetic anhydride decreased. At the same time, the downstream sales of acetic anhydride were general. The market of acetic anhydride in the future was mixed, and acetic anhydride had a certain upward momentum.
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Factor analysis of industrial chain:
The price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in June. The overall price of acetic acid rose by 5.43% in June. In the first half of June, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, which was good for acetic anhydride. The price of acetic anhydride followed the rise. Since June 16, the price of acetic acid fell sharply and the market of acetic anhydride was bad. However, the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise because of the shutdown of equipment in acetic anhydride enterprises, the decrease of supply of acetic anhydride, and the overall price of acetic anhydride continued to
In June, methanol prices tumbled by 6.6%, negative for acetic anhydride. In the first half of June, the price of methanol dropped sharply, followed by the price of acetic anhydride. Then, with the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride rising sharply, the price of acetic anhydride rose. After that, the price of methanol remained stable and had little impact on the price of acetic anhydride. The overall methanol price has no driving force for the future market of acetic anhydride.
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3. Future market forecast:
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, rose first and then fell, and overall shocks rose in June; methanol price shocks fell, acetic anhydride costs rose, and acetic anhydride prices rose. Since the latter part of the year, the price of acetic acid has fallen, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride has fallen, and the market for acetic anhydride has been negative. But in the latter part of the year, the equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers stopped, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the price of acetic anhydride rose against the trend, and the market of acetic anhydride rose. However, with the stable start-up rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers, the momentum of acetic anhydride rising in the future is weakened, while the price fluctuations of acetic acid and methanol remain stable, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rising is insufficient. In June, the market of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rising in the future was insufficient, which made it difficult to sustain the continued rise of the price of acetic anhydride.