Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5364 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5370 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market rose by 0.11% and fell by 1.35% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. In Northeast China this week, low prices continue to pop up. Some enterprises sell large quantities of alcohol at ultra-low prices, high-end supplies are not smooth, and the market goes down. The downstream ethyl acetate enterprises begin to purchase. When the enterprise’s inventory is consumed, they thought that the price will rise later this week, but due to internal reasons, the current price will be maintained. Low-level; Xinheyang plant in Henan province opened, thick source plant stopped for environmental protection reasons, Huaxing maintained a line of production, market prices maintained strong because of good supply side; raw cassava prices in East China continued to rise, cost pressures large enterprises started lower, weak downstream demand market transaction weak finishing; Continuous low-price explosion, stable production, individual molasses enterprises due to the impact of raw material supply in the short-term parking plan, is expected to start the next squeezing season, Luocheng Kechao and Chongzuoxin and short-term driving plan, Zhanjiang Leizhou Runtai in Guangdong Province, continuous parking, market quotations remain stable, downstream ethyl acetate production enterprises. Centralized purchase of raw materials; Yunnan Dabenfen molasses alcohol enterprises due to raw material factors under the device shutdown, Yunnan Kewei, Hongtai sugar industry plant shutdown, limited inventory prices on the high side.

Industry Chain: Corn: With the auctioning grain flowing to the market one after another, the deep processing enterprises in the main producing areas have sufficient arrivals, the purchase price has been reduced, the short-term market supply is relatively loose, and the auction cost has formed a bottom support for the price of corn. Some trading enterprises actively released their warehouses. Some corn deep processing enterprises are about to be repaired in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable state. Therefore, we predict that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will experience a more likely period of weak adjustment until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the late corn market is still bullish. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market for ethyl acetate was weak. At the beginning of the week, the offer price of North China’s production enterprises was slightly adjusted, which led to lower prices in some negotiations in the markets of East China and North China. The market in East and South China is in the off-season, and the mainstream enterprises are still competing. However, the price of raw material production enterprises is in the stage of loss. Although there is pressure of shipment, the cost pressure supports the stable implementation of the offer of ethyl acetate production enterprises. The supply of new arrivals in the shipment market in South China this week is relatively abundant, and it is difficult to form a favorable support for the market just in need of purchase downstream, which leads to the weak market of ethyl acetate at different stages.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the price of Northeast China falls this week, the order is large and the stock is not high, but the market remains stable or fluctuates to a certain extent due to the uncertain factors of structural adjustment of an enterprise; the construction situation of East China under the influence of high cost does not show any improvement in the short term, and the price of East China is short under the impact of low price goods in Northeast China. Inside the line, it will continue to be weak; Henan will restore stability in the short term, and the vulnerable downward trend will not be ruled out under the impact of low-price goods from other places. The low-end prices in South China are close to the cost line at present. The willingness of enterprises to pull up is obvious, but the demand for liquor downstream is light, and the short-term market is expected to run steadily. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable in the short term.