I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, 23 kinds of commodities rose in the price rise-fall list of 58 commodities in the 27th week (7.8-7.12) of 2019, mainly in the energy sector (6 kinds) and steel sector (5 kinds). More than 5% of the commodities increased mainly in the agricultural and sideline sectors; the first three commodities increased were eggs (8.30%), WTI crude oil (4.68%) and gasoline (4.10%). 。 There were 25 kinds of goods falling in the ring ratio, mainly in chemical industry (4 kinds) and textile (4 kinds). The first three items falling were natural rubber (-4.52%), cotton yarn 21S (-3.61%) and polyester POY (-3.45%). Tianjiao dropped sharply in the second week of July, ranking first in the list with a decline of 4.52%.

II. Commodity Index

On July 15, the natural rubber commodity index was 31.26, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 68.74% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 11.05% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of the year, the market of natural rubber has been on the ups and downs. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to suffer from weak shocks, falling by 5.7% that month, which was called “business is very difficult to do”. After July, the date of No. 20 rubber market was fixed, which had a great impact on the whole latex. In addition, the peak season of rubber production gradually came and the downstream demand did not improve. Tianguo continued to decline and its weakness remained. On the 9th day, the lowest point of Shanghai RU1909 contract was 10580 points and the closing point was 10810 points, with a decline of 4.62%, which was the biggest drop in one day in the past six months. The data show that in 17 years, the mainstream price of SCRWF was 11290 yuan/ton on the 1st day, 10540 yuan/ton on the 15th day, and the half-month drop was as high as 6.64%. The highest price was 11290 yuan/ton on the 1st day, the lowest was 10520 yuan/ton on the 13th day, and the biggest drop was 6.82% in the half-month.

IV. Factor Analysis

Output: The high temperature and drought in rubber producing areas at home and abroad were alleviated at the end of last month, and gradually entered the peak season of rubber production. The expected market supply increased dramatically and the price was under pressure. According to traders, the purchasing price of glue in rubber producing areas in China has continued to decline, falling below 10 yuan/kg this month. Recent glue supply pressures in Southeast Asia have also increased significantly. The overall price of raw materials has declined. Expectations of increased domestic supply have dragged down prices. Corresponding to the measures taken by rubber-producing countries to boost rubber prices, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have decided from April to July in response to the downturn in the market of Tianguo. Thai Prime Minister Bayu recently said that Thailand would increase domestic rubber consumption to boost the depressed price of rubber by increasing its use in road construction.

Demand and Inventory: On demand, downstream consumption is in the off-season. According to statistics, China’s tire production and export volume has declined in October, and demand is not optimistic. China Automobile Circulation Association: In June 2019, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers was 50.4%, 3.6 percentage points lower than the previous year, 8.8 percentage points lower than the previous year, and the automobile inventory warning index was still above the warning line; moreover, according to statistics, China’s tire production and export volume had declined continuously in October, and the demand was not optimistic. Inventory data show that the stock outside the bonded area has been declining in the near future, and the impact on the market has been reduced in the near future. Stock on the exchange is still at a high level, and warehouse receipt inventory on July 12 is still at a high level of more than 400,000.

Policy aspect: The recent downward trend of Shanghai Rubber Co., Ltd. and the direct factor of its increase are the news that the No. 20 Rubber Co. will be listed next month. At present, the production of No. 20 glue in our country is very small, mainly dependent on imports, and is bonded transactions, US dollar valuation. After the listing of No. 20 rubber, we will adopt the “international platform, RMB valuation” as the listing mode, adopt the net price trading and bonded delivery scheme, and fully introduce foreign traders to participate. It is anticipated that a large number of funds and downstream enterprises will participate in hedging. For the current full latex Shanghai rubber, the capital will be withdrawn from the preparation of No. 20 rubber, delivery market will be staged ahead of schedule, RU1909 will face great pressure on warehouse receipts, and the decline in futures prices will intensify. After 20 According to the analysis, the premium of new glue in contract 01 will be greatly reduced, and theoretically the 1-9 price difference will gradually narrow and return to the normal level (the reasonable price difference of 1-9 is about 500-600 yuan/ton).

Relevant products: The commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on July 14 was 31.70, which was the same as that of yesterday. It was 69.04% lower than the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), 33.53% higher than the lowest point of 23.74 on February 04, 2015, and 32.73 on July 14, which was the same as that of yesterday, 103.60 points higher than the peak of the cycle (2011-0). 9-08) decreased by 68.41%, up 15.21% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Relevant hot spots:

Confirmation of Mixed Rubber: On April 28, the General Administration of Customs issued a notice requiring that the mixed rubber imported through customs declaration No. 40028000 should be inspected as a mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. Although the announcement has been issued in February, its impact on the market continues to ferment, the import volume of Vietnam’s 3L rubber decreases, and the domestic price of 3L rubber is relatively strong. It has been reported that Chinese manufacturers have used domestic full latex to replace 3L in some processes, but the current replacement volume is not large, and the market is still paying close attention to customs inspection.

Promotion of automobile consumption: On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly formulated and issued Notice No. 967 on Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods, Implementing the Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020). It proposed resolutely breaking the barriers to passenger car consumption and strictly prohibiting it. Local governments should explore the policy of classified use of vehicles within and outside congested areas according to the specific conditions of cities, and in principle, they should not restrict the purchase of vehicles outside congested areas. They should vigorously promote the consumption and use of new energy vehicles, and all localities should not restrict the use of new energy vehicles. Policies should be abolished to “escort” the growth of automobile sales again. This is the fourth time in a month that the relevant state departments have promulgated good policies to boost automobile consumption.

The listing time of glue No. 20 is determined: On June 12, 2018, the application of glue No. 20 of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as “Shanghai Stock Exchange”) as a specific futures variety has been approved by CSRC. On July 5, 2019, the SFC approved the trading of No. 20 glue, urea and japonica rice futures contracts. The listing time is August 12, 2019, August 9 and August 16, 2019, respectively.

Thailand will increase its domestic use of natural rubber: Thai Prime Minister Ba Yu said recently that Thailand will increase its domestic consumption of rubber to boost the depressed price of rubber by increasing its use in road construction, according to foreign media on the 10th. He said that as one of the world’s largest producers of natural rubber, Thailand must put forward as many uses of rubber as possible, including the use of rubber for road construction.

V. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business association, the output of natural rubber at home and abroad is in the peak season, the supply continues to increase, the stock is still at a high level, the demand downstream is light, and the contradiction of basic supply is intensified. At the moment when the impact of 3L rubber customs classification and inspection is weakened, the impact of the August listing of No. 20 rubber has been 10 days, and the market of Tianjiao rubber continues to decline. Beware of the large fluctuation of Tianguo market in the case of late price difference regression and withdrawal of funds from the whole latex.