Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.52%, 1.49% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 89.15 on July 19.
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II. Market Analysis
Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1870 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is stable for the time being; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1870 yuan/ton at the weekend, which is 30 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui Chemical Industry quoted 2010 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is stable for the time being. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.
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Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplementation, but relatively few, along with the downstream demand decline, urea prices have slowly declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.
Industry chain: Upstream natural gas prices rose slightly, liquid ammonia market fell slightly, urea cost support was strong, which had a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.
3. Future Market Forecast
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Low urea prices consolidated in late July. After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the current domestic urea market is affected by environmental protection and raw material costs. With the recovery of urea enterprise start-up rate, coupled with the current agricultural demand climax has passed, the downstream game atmosphere of the market is strong and start-up costs are gradually increasing, leading to the difficulty of maintaining urea market prices. It is expected that urea prices will be difficult to maintain in late July. Or low consolidation.