Price Trend
The domestic butadiene market fell this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8490 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8456 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.39%, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly reorganized. Sinopec’s supply price has stabilized at 8600-800 yuan/ton, and Liaotong Chemical Industry’s bottom bidding price has been lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 8310 yuan/ton. Although last week Huajin high-priced transactions, but with the increase in exports of other manufacturers, the market supply is abundant, downstream high-priced supply capacity is limited, this week the market in the north gradually fell back. In the week, Ningbo coal and Jiutai coal prices were lowered, and some of Huajin’s supply streams were patted, downstream wait-and-see expectations, the market trading atmosphere was weak, combined with the downstream synthetic rubber market downturn, bringing drag on the butadiene market. Although the supply and demand fundamentals of East China market are not obviously skewed for the time being, due to the influence of the northern atmosphere, downstream inquiries are relatively cautious and the market remains weak. In terms of price, the delivery price of high-grade goods in Shandong is 8800 yuan/ton, which is down 400-500 yuan/ton annually; the delivery price of high-grade goods in East China is 8950-9000 yuan/ton, which is down 50-100 yuan/ton annually.
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Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber dry rubber factory price stability, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 unit price 10000-10100 yuan/ton, oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 unit price 9050-9250 yuan/ton. Market price shocks, Qilu 1502E price near 10,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; Qilu 1712 price at 9,200 yuan/ton, stable from last week. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory prices stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; market price range narrower than last cycle adjustment; by the end of submission, domestic cis-butadiene mainstream market prices adjusted to the range of 10,300-10,700 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.
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3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, and the downstream market just needs to remain. On the short side, the synthetic rubber market is weak, the start-up load is reduced, the spot supply in the northern market is increasing, and the high price is not good. Short-term North spot supply is relatively abundant, and high-price transactions are not good, coupled with the downturn of synthetic rubber market, the butadiene market has brought some drag. However, the tight supply performance in East China and Sinopec, together with the high market, has boosted the mentality of some domestic businessmen. With the reduction of the supply price of export manufacturers, it will stimulate the downstream just need to replenish warehouses, or to some extent, it will inhibit the downstream pace of the market. However, the downstream industrial chain and terminal demand drag down, the butadiene market is also difficult. There is an upward possibility. Business analysts predict that the spot price of butadiene in the domestic market will fall slightly next week. They suggest that attention should be paid to the price of the manufacturer and the transaction situation.