I. price trend

In this week’s (10.14-10.18), the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 138175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 139887.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.24%.

On October 20, the tin commodity index was 71.26, unchanged from yesterday, 28.92% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 66.26% higher than the lowest point, 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s spot tin market bottomed out and rebounded. This week’s U.S. retail data hit a 7-month low. Under this influence, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous correction. Under the double positive stimulus of the U.S. dollar correction and industry production reduction, the spot market was strongly attacked. Driven by the positive effect of Shanghai tin futures, the price rose by 2000 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the domestic mainstream price was 138000-141000 yuan / ton. 。 In terms of premium and discount: on Friday, the main contract set of Shanghai phase Xi’an Power Co., Ltd. was yunxiping water – Premium 500 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi premium 500 yuan / ton – Premium 300 yuan / ton, small brand premium 1000 – Premium 500 yuan / ton.

Major events in the industry: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta reported on October 11 that Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on Friday. According to data, Indonesia’s refined tin exports last month were 5225.26 tons, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.

Nonferrous Industry: market sentiment was mixed this week. At the beginning of this week, China and the United States reached an agreement on the framework of trade negotiations. The process of brexit was accelerated, the market performance was good, and basic metals generally stabilized in a high range of shocks. However, with the release of global economic data in succession, the trend of global economic downturn made the basic metals one after another spit out the weekly gains, showing a high pressure situation.

III. future prospects

Next week, European and American economic data are still relatively concentrated, and it is expected to remain weak. The US dollar is in low-level consolidation, which may support the basic metals. There are long orders delivered in the domestic trade market. Due to the upgrade of value-added tax tickets, the spot performance may be strong. Most of the basic metals will maintain the range shock pattern, and it is temporarily difficult to breed the ability and space for a major breakthrough.