I. price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

 

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Industrial chain:

 

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This month, the overall bottom of carbon black and its downstream market has stabilized, the gross profit rate of carbon black products has rebounded on a month on month basis, the operating rate of tire factories has dropped to about 50%, carbon black inventory is difficult to digest, new orders are limited, and the operating rate of some carbon black factories continues to decline. It is difficult to change the loss situation of downstream factories, the overall mentality is relatively negative, and the possibility of further decline in operating rate is not ruled out in the later stage.

 

listed company:

 

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.

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In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.

 

III. future forecast

 

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

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