I. price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene fluctuated in a narrow range in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7184 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (November 29), the average price of enterprises was 7035 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 2.08%. The high price of this month is 7399 yuan / ton on November 13 and 14; the low price of this month is 6995 yuan / ton on November 28; the monthly amplitude is 5.46%.
II. Analysis and comment
Product: the price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. By the end of the week, the price began to rise by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price was generally stable. On the 12th, the price of the enterprise was stable. On the 15th, the price began to decline. On the 19th-22nd, most of the prices were stable, and some of them rose slightly. The price of propylene fell again on the weekend, All the way down about 350 yuan / ton, the price of propylene began to stabilize on the 28th and slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the market turnover is still around 6970-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7000 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the recent OPEC production reduction policy or the news that it will be extended, the international crude oil market is generally ideal, which has a certain effect on propylene. In the downstream, the PP futures market is also optimistic. The downstream manufacturers start to resume work gradually, the shipment situation improves, and the inventory pressure decreases, which also has a positive impact on propylene.
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PP spot fell sharply in November, down 1.95% on a monthly basis, but the market at the end of the month was more ideal, pulling up the propylene market.
In November, the domestic acrylic acid market stabilized in the first half of the month, and rose in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.46%, which has a positive impact on propylene.
The trend of propylene oxide declined in November and then rose. At the end of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly increase of 3.72% and an amplitude of 5.86%. It was mainly used in the aftermarket or rigid finishing operation, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.
In November, epichlorohydrin began to fall sharply, and the price went down all the way, with a monthly drop as high as 31.34%. The upward action force was still insufficient, which had a certain impact on the propylene price.
N-butanol also rose in November after a decline. At the end of the month, it was also a high price, with a monthly increase of 1.07% and an amplitude of 2.72%, which had little impact on propylene.
Octanol rose slightly after the decline in November. At the beginning of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly decline of 1.18% and an amplitude of 2.82%, which may have a negative impact on propylene.
In November, the domestic phenol market fell steadily, with monthly high price at the beginning of the month and monthly low price at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.64%. The downward trend slowed down at the end of the month, but it still had a negative impact on propylene market.
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In November, the domestic acetone market rose rapidly, with monthly low price at the beginning of the month and monthly high price at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 40.69%. There are some signs of stabilization in the future market, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.
In November, isopropanol market was affected by upstream acetone market, rising continuously, with a monthly increase of 26.96%, which had a positive impact on propylene.
III. future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, on the whole, propylene fell in a ladder like way after rising in November, and rose slightly at the end of the month. The upstream crude oil market is relatively ideal; the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the shipping pressure is small, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still rise in the short term.
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