I. price trend:

On December 14, crude benzene commodity index was 73.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.92% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 88.38% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (12.09-12.13) the domestic crude benzene market was raised. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4410 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 4721.67 yuan / ton, up 7.07%.

Domestic market: this week’s strong interest in crude benzol led to a sharp rise in crude benzol prices. By Friday, the price of crude benzol in Shandong Province had risen to about 4930 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton compared with last week. This rise in crude benzol price was mainly boosted by multiple positive factors. This week’s external price of pure benzol continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its listing price to 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, due to the impact of haze weather, the environmental protection in North China and surrounding areas has been upgraded, some coking enterprises have started to reduce, and the supply of crude benzene in the plant is slightly tight compared with that in the earlier stage. The downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started to operate stably in the near future and have a good demand for crude benzene. Multiple favorable factors are concentrated, greatly boosting the price of crude benzene. This week, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong Province rose collectively, about 460 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week, crude oil rose in shock due to OPEC’s deepening production reduction and favorable trade prospects. WTI was up 1.49% and Brent was up 1.19% compared with December 6. Pure benzene: this week, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline. In addition, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene was limited, and the market of pure benzene in Asia was forced to empty in January, which caused the price focus of pure benzene in Asia to move up, driving the domestic price of pure benzene higher. The price of pure benzene will be favorable, and Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene will be increased to 5750 yuan / ton.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, the progress of the trade agreement will boost the market smoothly. It is expected that the oil price will be boosted next week. At present, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, which will support the market in a short term. However, this week’s rise is too fast, and the downstream pressure increases sharply. Although the downstream hydrobenzene keeps rising slightly, the current cost pressure is still large. At the end of December, some units have maintenance plans, and it is expected that there will be a small callback space in the crude benzene market next week, mainly small shocks.