On January 3, Sulaimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “Holy City Brigade” in Iran, was killed in an air raid at Baghdad airport in Iraq. The US side confirmed that the attack was launched. Affected by the incident, crude oil rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures market price in the US rose to 63.05 US dollars / barrel, or 1.87 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures price rose to 68.60 US dollars / barrel, or 68.60 US dollars / barrel $2.35.

At present, the incident continues to ferment, and the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense. Khamenei, Iran’s top leader, later said that “severe retaliation” is waiting to kill the murderer of major general Sulaimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “. Then the U.S. State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking the American citizens in Iraq to evacuate immediately, and at the same time, suspending the consular service of the embassy. The situation in the U.S. and Iran has further deteriorated 。 Then, on January 5, it was reported that the U.S. ambassador to Iraq and his military base were simultaneously attacked by rockets, which was regarded as the “first shot” by Iran.

After being retaliated by Iran, the highest level of the United States issued a military warning publicly, and defined the scope of the military action against Iran. On January 5, trump publicly said that if Iran launched retaliation, threatening the security of the United States, the United States hit the 52 targets of Iran precisely. At present, things are out of control, which is also the largest black swan flying out of the world at the beginning of 2020.

How should oil prices go in the later period?

According to the business association, the situation in the Middle East is difficult to calm down in the short term. The United States has made a plan to increase its troops in the Middle East, and the incident has also evolved in the long term. At present, the risk of crude oil supply in the Middle East is triggered again, especially Iran and Iraq. It is reported that Iran and Iraq are the main producers of OPEC crude oil and fuel oil, and fuel oil exports rank first (mainly to the Asia Pacific). In November 2019, OPEC The crude oil output of the two countries accounts for 22.82% of OPEC’s total output, which is 29.7 million barrels / day, including 4.71 million barrels / day in Iraq and 2.07 million barrels / day in Iran. According to the data, this proportion is very large. If the Middle East is in a state of war, the oil production and refining facilities of the two countries will be affected. At that time, the production of crude oil and fuel oil will be significantly reduced, which will also lead to the risk of crude oil supply and chain reaction, including OPEC + production reduction agreement. It is expected that crude oil will remain long in the near future As a result, there is a great possibility for oil prices to reach a new high.