Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

 

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average price of domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises on January 1, 2019 was 10650 yuan / ton, and as of December 25, the average price of domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13900 yuan / ton, up 30.52% in the year. The lowest price in the year is 10150 yuan / ton on January 7, and the highest price in the year is 18933.33 yuan / ton on October 28, with a maximum amplitude of 86.54%.

 

Market analysis:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin in 2017 was 8233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 17366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year, up 109.66% in the year. The unreasonable industrial structure, strict environmental supervision, high prices of some raw materials and other reasons led to a serious shortage of goods after August, and the market of epichlorohydrin soared all the way. In 2017, the capacity of epichlorohydrin in China was about 1.14 million tons.

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average price of enterprises at the beginning of 2018 was 17366.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of enterprises at the end of 2018 was 10650 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 38.68% in the year. On the supply side, in 2018, the capacity of China’s propylene oxide industry reached more than 1.35 million tons, and the change of operating rate affected the price trend. On the demand side, influenced by environmental protection supervision and other factors in 2018, the overall operating rate of China’s epoxy resin industry is 40.5%, and some enterprises are limited in production or parking, which is difficult to drive the demand for epichlorohydrin to strengthen. In 2018, epichlorohydrin market supply and demand game, the overall shock fell.

 

In 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin went through ups and downs, experienced two big ups and downs, and showed an upward trend of shocks as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin in 2019 has two significant increases, the first one from April 29 (10800 yuan / ton) to July 22 (17666.67 yuan / ton) up 63.58%. For the second time, from September 4 (12166.67 yuan / ton) to October 28 (18933.33 yuan / ton), the increase was 55.62%. The main reasons for the rise of epichlorohydrin: the four production lines of Shandong Haili, a leading domestic enterprise, totaled 320000 tons / year of epichlorohydrin plant, which had been shut down for maintenance since the end of October 2018, has not been restarted up to now, and the subsequent impact of “3.21″ major explosion accident, the operating rate of epichlorohydrin industry has always been low. The supply side of the market has shrunk, the spot supply has continued to be tight, the manufacturers have no pressure to ship, and the rising sentiment of the selling market is unprecedented, so it is difficult to find the source of low-cost goods. The market price of epichlorohydrin has also seen two significant declines, the first one from July 22 (17666.67 yuan / ton) to August 20 (12466.67 yuan / ton) with a decline of 29.43%. For the second time, from October 28 (18933.33 yuan / ton) to December 10 (11833.33 yuan / ton), the decline was 37.50%. The main reason for the decline of epichlorohydrin was that the supply of epichlorohydrin was relatively tight, but the downstream was at the low level of the operating rate, thus reducing the purchase of raw epichlorohydrin. The downstream gas was few and the epichlorohydrin plant had low price shipping intention based on the profitability In addition, due to the expected restart of some units and the release of new capacity in the later stage, downstream operators are more cautious in participating in this stage, and the market of epichlorohydrin is weak.

 

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In the first quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rebounded after a slow rise and a sharp fall, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased from 10650 yuan / ton on January 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on March 31, with the quotation increased by 1183.33 yuan / ton, or 11.11%.

 

In the second quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rose sharply after a volatile decline. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin dropped from 11833.33 yuan / ton on April 1, to 10800 yuan / ton on April 29 in shock, and finally to 14600 yuan / ton on June 30. In the second quarter, the overall price rose 2766.67 yuan / ton, or 23.38%.

 

The market of epichlorohydrin fluctuated in the third quarter of 2019. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased from 14600 yuan / ton on July 1 to 15000 yuan / ton on September 30, with the quotation increased by 400 yuan / ton, or 2.74%. The highest price in July was 17666.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in September was 12166.67 yuan / ton.

 

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rose sharply and fell sharply. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of epichlorohydrin fell from 15000 yuan / ton on October 1 to 13900 yuan / ton on December 25, with the quotation down 1100 yuan / ton, or 7.33%. The highest price in October is 18933.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in December is 11833.33 yuan / ton.

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According to the statistics of the customs, from January to November 2019, the cumulative import volume of epichlorohydrin in China is 16492.074 tons, and the cumulative export volume is 7993.555 tons.

 

Future forecast:

 

In conclusion, the rise and fall of raw material prices in 2019 has limited impact on epichlorohydrin, and the supply and demand side is the key to the rise and fall of epichlorohydrin prices. At present, epichlorohydrin is still in a tight spot supply state, and it is hard to find a low-cost source of goods. It is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will go higher in the short term. In 2020, we still need to pay attention to the upstream and downstream information guidance.

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