1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was stable first and then fell. On February 24, the average price of liquefied gas market was 4050 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3700 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.64% during the period. The price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the liquefied gas market fell back after continuous upward trend. As of February 28, the price of liquefied gas from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4010 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4400 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3920 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Jinjin Co., Ltd The factory price of liquefied gas of Chenghua group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3550 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3850 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the overall demand of liquefied gas market was good, and the price went up one after another, with a large increase. But this week, the market’s rise slowed down and prices recovered. International crude oil fell sharply this week due to the warming of the global epidemic. In the early stage, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream resistance mentality has increased. At present, the terminal resumption has not been fully recovered. With the completion of the downstream periodic replenishment, the stock has been withdrawn from the market and consumed. The market transaction atmosphere has been weakened compared with that in the early stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the stock has increased gradually. From the 26th, the price has fallen.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top two are methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 11.78%), Brent crude oil (- 11.57%), and liquefied gas (- 8.64%). This week’s average was – 3.14%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market supply is still running at a low level. Although the downstream resumption of work has increased, it has not been fully recovered. The downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory after periodic replenishment. The delivery atmosphere of the manufacturer is obviously weaker than that of the earlier stage, the inventory is gradually increasing, the firmness situation is not there, and the price is reasonable. It is expected that the demand will increase next week, and the downstream will start to replenish periodically, so that the price may stop falling and rise slightly.