1、 Price trend
On February 28, the NBR commodity index was 73.31, down 0.79 points from yesterday, 40.72% from 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 42.02% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016 (Note: since 2012-09-01). According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of NBR was 16200 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 15733 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 2.88% lower than that at the beginning of the month.
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2、 Market trend analysis
First, the sharp drop in crude oil dragged down butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials of nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in China fell sharply, with the price at the beginning of February at 8056 yuan / ton and the price at the end of February at 6223 yuan / ton, down 22.75% overall. On the other hand, the factory price of Shanghai Secco in East China fell from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 13.94% as a whole.
Secondly, affected by the “new crown” epidemic prevention and control, especially in the first and middle of February, on the one hand, domestic traffic control is relatively strict, and the circulation of production materials is not smooth. On the other hand, the domestic downstream enterprises’ resumption of production has been delayed, and the demand after the festival is less than that of the previous years. According to the business association, by the middle of February, the return rate of the downstream rubber hose and belt industry enterprises was only within 40% or even lower, and the area of return to work was gradually increased near the end of the month, and the return rate in East China was relatively high. Therefore, the overall turnover in February was light, which was negative for NBR.
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Finally, in February, the overall operating rate of NBR industry in China was relatively low around 60-70%, and the supply side of NBR formed a certain support. According to the understanding of the business agency, the normal start-up of domestic Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhenjiang Nandi and other nitrile units, the low load start-up of Jinpu, and the shutdown and maintenance of shunze nitrile in the first and middle of February. As of the end of February, n41e, 3305e and 3308e had reported 15000 yuan / ton, 15500 yuan / ton and 15600 yuan / ton respectively.
3、 Future prospects
Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still low, especially the risk of crude oil decline is still in. On the other hand, domestic enterprises will gradually expand the resumption of work, and later demand will increase. In terms of upstream and downstream conditions, the trend of NBR in the later stage is unclear, and good domestic resumption of work will drive up the price, but if crude oil continues to fall sharply, it will drag the entire industrial chain.