According to the October 18 news, industry data showed that the export volume of most petrochemical products in South Korea fell by double digits in September.

According to data from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea’s ethylene exports fell by 27.8% year-on-year in September to 7.0299 million tons, and propylene exports fell 27% year-on-year to 126,298 tons.

In September, South Korea’s p-xylene exports fell 27% year-on-year to 577.543 million tons, while refined terephthalic acid (PTA) exports fell 24.8% year-on-year to 144,116 tons.

In September, South Korean benzene exports fell by 15.1% year-on-year to 022,252 tons, and toluene exports fell by 33.2% year-on-year to 269.97 million tons.

According to Dow Jones News on October 18, a senior Nigerian oil official said at the Argus global crude summit in Geneva on Thursday that the Nigerian oil industry is recovering, and crude oil and coagulation in the first quarter of 2019. Oil production is expected to reach 2.3 million barrels per day. The official said that Nigeria’s oil production is rising due to the restoration of direct government funding, the renegotiation of legacy issues, the containment of insurgent and sabotage activities, and the adjustment of evacuation routes. At the same time, Nigeria has expanded its export base. Although Europe is still the largest destination for Nigerian crude oil, Asia and the Far East are becoming important distribution centers. India is the largest single buyer of Nigerian crude oil in 2018, close to 20%, while the United States buys Nigerian oil to about 8%.

In response to the new rural and new economic strategies proposed by the state, the development of agriculture has received much attention, and the development of industrial chains related to agriculture has also been developed. Let’s talk about the overall trend and prospects of the development of China’s pesticide industry.

According to the database of the China Business Research Institute, the production of chemical pesticides in the country declined gradually from March to July in 2018. In July 2018, the national chemical pesticide production was 171,000 tons, down 10.9% year-on-year. In August 2018, the national chemical pesticide production reached a small rebound. In August 2018, the national chemical pesticide production was 183,000 tons, down 2.1% year-on-year. From January to August 2018, the national chemical pesticide production was 1.476 million tons, down 12.3% year-on-year.

Talking about the overall trend and prospect of the development of China’s pesticide industry

The development trend of China’s pesticide industry

1. Accelerating industry integration and promoting the accumulation of pesticide industry in China

China’s pesticide production capacity and output are in the forefront of the world, but the industrial concentration is low, the number of enterprises is large, most of the scale is small, overcapacity, OEM sales, at the low end of the value chain. Many enterprises have problems such as safety and environmental protection hazards, backward technical equipment and insufficient investment in environmental protection and safety. In response to the status quo, the state uses industrial policy guidance to vigorously promote mergers and acquisitions among enterprises, increase industrial concentration, and promote the transformation of the pesticide industry toward intensification, scale, specialization, and specialization.

In May 2016, China Pesticide Industry Association officially issued the “13th Five-Year Plan for Development of Pesticide Industry”, mentioning that it is necessary to promote the structural adjustment of the pesticide industry and encourage large-scale enterprises through mergers, reorganizations, and shareholding system reforms. In the future, the production of pesticide raw materials will be further concentrated. By 2020, the number of pesticide original drug companies will be reduced by 30%, and the sales of the top 20 pesticide companies in China will reach more than 70% of the national total sales. We will build a specialized pesticide production park concentrated in production enterprises, and cultivate a large-scale enterprise group with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan and international competitiveness.

In the future, intensification and scale are the only way for pesticide companies to become bigger and stronger. With the intensification of competition in the industry and the increasing pressure on environmental protection, China’s pesticide industry is entering a new round of integration. Enterprises with leading technology, reasonable mechanism and flexible operation will become the leading force of industry integration. Through industry integration, it will help improve the international competitiveness of enterprises and promote the healthy and rapid development of the industry.

2. Integrated development of original drugs and preparations

On the basis of the original drug, a suitable auxiliary agent (such as a solvent, an emulsifier, a wetting agent, a dispersing agent, etc.) is added, and a preparation product having a certain form, composition and specification is obtained by processing and production, and the preparation is directly applied to agricultural production. . The product quality and usage of the preparations are closely related to environmental safety, food safety and ecological stability.

Through deep processing of products, the preparation enterprises grasp the resources of sales channels, and the profit level is gradually improved. Some of the stronger pharmaceutical companies have begun to enter the formulation field in order to enhance their market competitiveness. Some pharmaceutical companies have also accelerated their extension to the upstream pharmaceutical industry. Actively gain the initiative in industry competition. With the development of vertical integration of the industry, the domestic pesticide industry will show the trend of integrated development of original drugs and preparations.

3. Optimization of production process and improvement of innovation level

Due to the high cost and difficulty of the development of pesticides, domestic pesticide companies are unable to bear the huge cost of new compound creation. In the research and development of products, the sub-new compounds are mainly used for imitation. The main varieties of pesticides in the post-production period are products with independent intellectual property rights. less.

For the production of chemical pesticides, the core technology is compound synthesis technology. Due to the differences in raw materials and synthetic methods, different process routes can be developed and designed for production, which directly affect product quality, cost and environmental pollution, and ultimately affect the product. Market Competitiveness. Excellent original pharmaceutical companies improve the efficiency of the process route through continuous optimization and breakthrough of compound synthesis technology, thus forming a core competitive advantage in this field.

Pesticide preparations are high value-added products. The success of a pesticide variety is inseparable from the innovation of pesticide preparations. The key to technological innovation of preparations lies in the research of new dosage form development and processing technology. The main features are to reduce the use of organic solvents, improve product control efficiency, reduce production costs, achieve environmental safety, and increase crop yield. At present, China’s preparation production technology is relatively backward, production is continuous, and the degree of automation is low. On average, only seven or eight preparations can be processed for each original drug, and each pesticide variety in developed countries can be processed into dozens or even dozens of preparations.

4. The production process is green, and the products are developing in the direction of high efficiency, low toxicity, environmental friendliness and water supply.

In the future, in the context of the emergence of high-efficiency new pesticides, advances in application techniques, and stricter environmental requirements, the development of pesticide formulations will tend to be more refined and environmentally friendly. Water emulsions, water-dispersible granules, water suspoemulsions, microemulsions, and solubles. New pesticide formulations such as powders and microcapsules will gradually emerge.

5. The trend of downstream concentrated drug use has an impact on the pesticide business model

The pattern of the original household and the scattered purchase of medicines will be broken, and the main body of pesticide application will be gradually transformed from the individual farmers to the large planters and social service organizations. The existing pesticide distributors in China will also change. The original village-level and some township-level dealers will withdraw from the pesticide distribution market with the changes of social economy, greatly shortening the distribution level between manufacturers and end users, and even manufacturers. It is directly sold with peer-to-peer manufacturers, and the model of mechanized plant protection services is provided by the manufacturer. Drugs, promotion and popularization of high-efficiency, low-toxic, safe and environmentally friendly pesticides have become an inevitable trend in China’s agricultural development.

Industry profits are large, growth is faster

Since the second half of 2016, international crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, driving the prices of related basic materials and intermediates to rise. In addition, after the international agrochemical giant experienced more than two years of destocking, the replenishment of stocks has driven the recovery of overseas demand, global pesticides. The market sentiment has rebounded, and the sales scale of the global agrochemical market has gradually recovered. Affected by multiple factors such as the previous environmental protection inspectors, enterprises stopped production, increased market demand and the promotion of relevant policies in the pesticide industry, the pesticide industry gradually stepped out of the trough, and the price of pesticide products also showed a rebound.

China’s pesticide industry market is fiercely competitive, with a large number of companies and low industry concentration. Affected by various factors such as product structure, process route, management level and business scale, the profit rate of different enterprises is quite different, and it shows a trend of polarization.

Enterprises with product advantages, R&D advantages, scale advantages, service and brand advantages in the industry, with their own research and development strength and advanced technology and equipment, constantly introduce new products, improve process routes, improve product quality and added value, and have perfect sales. Channels, relying on the good brand image established by the technical service and product application demonstration effect, ensure the steady growth of sales revenue and obtain a higher profit level. In the future, with the intensification of market competition, the phenomenon of profit differentiation in the industry will become increasingly obvious, and enterprises lacking advantages will eventually withdraw from the market.

On October 11, the domestic market of zinc metal fell, the domestic spot market metal zinc market price average price 23655.00 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price fell 1.08%; ex-factory price average price 24713.33 yuan / ton, compared to the previous trading day The price fell by 1.03%.

On October 10, the zinc (market) commodity index was 136.59, an increase of 1.84 points from yesterday, which was 12.31% lower than the highest point of the cycle of 155.77 points (2017-10-09), compared with the lowest point of 72.28 points on November 22, 2015. It rose by 88.97%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On October 11th, the price of zinc fell. After the National Day holiday, the price of zinc continued to rise. The stock of zinc was lower. The supply of zinc was in short supply. The market volume was generally. With the decline of zinc price, the supply of zinc in the market was released. The shortage pressure eased. On October 11, domestic zinc prices fell by around RMB 250/ton.

On October 11, 2018, the inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai futures market was 8,324 tons, an increase of 2,292 tons from the previous trading day. On the 11th, the zinc futures inventories in the zinc futures market in Shanghai increased, and the supply shortage in the zinc market was alleviated. The zinc market was cautiously traded, which caused a certain negative for the zinc price in the market.

Market outlook: The zinc ingot inventory of the Shanghai futures market fell for two consecutive weeks before the holiday, which greatly promoted the rise of zinc price. The LME zinc ingot inventory in London fell to a five-month low, which was good for the international zinc price increase. After the holiday, the inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai futures market continued to increase, alleviating the pressure of rising zinc prices. The overall demand for zinc in the zinc market is obvious. The zinc price in the market still has room to rise, but with the increase in zinc ingot inventory, the pressure on zinc prices has eased. The US stock market has been falling continuously since October, affecting the future macroeconomic trend. The macroeconomic downturn affects the demand for zinc ingots and has a negative impact on zinc ingots. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will fall first and then rise, and the overall price will fluctuate slightly.

In the first half of 2018, China’s non-ferrous metals industry faced complicated domestic and international situations, adhered to the concept of innovation and development, actively promoted high-quality development, and earnestly implemented supply-side structural reforms. The non-ferrous metal industry’s production remained generally stable. The output of ten non-ferrous metals increased steadily. The output of major non-ferrous metal mines decreased year-on-year. The output of alumina decreased from negative growth to positive growth. The output of copper processed materials increased steadily, and the growth rate of aluminum processed materials declined significantly.

In the second half of the year, China’s non-ferrous metal industry production is expected to continue its stable operation in the first half of the year. Wang Siran, deputy director of Jinrui Futures Research Institute, believes that the impact of macroeconomics on non-ferrous metals in the second half of the year is more neutral. The strong and weak relationship of various colored varieties is nickel, copper, aluminum, lead, tin and zinc.

Industry production runs smoothly

In the first half of 2018, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in the country was 26.8463 million tons, an increase of 3.15% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, which was basically the same as that of January-May this year. Among them, the refined copper output was 4,406,100 tons, up 11.50% year-on-year, the original aluminum output was 16.648 million tons, up 1.57% year-on-year, down 7.2 percentage points; the lead output was 2,145,400 tons, up 9.48% year-on-year, up 4.5 percentage points; zinc production 288.01 Ten thousand tons, down 0.01% year-on-year, down 1.2% over the same period of last year; alumina output was 33.34 million tons, up 1.1%, down 18.6 percentage points.

From an international perspective, the recovery of the major economies in the first half of this year has continued to increase, the US economy has recovered strongly, the European economy has continued to rebound, the Japanese economy has continued to recover moderately, and the comparative advantages of emerging economies have gradually expanded. However, the world economy still faces three major uncertainties, such as the appreciation of the US dollar, structural problems of economic growth, and increased trade friction. The growth gap between the United States and Europe and Japan has expanded in developed economies.

From the domestic point of view, China’s economic growth has continued to develop steadily and steadily since the beginning of this year, with stable transformation and upgrading, and continuous improvement in quality. The supply-side structural reform continued to advance, the new kinetic energy continued to strengthen, and the Chinese economy continued to maintain a stable and positive trend. The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 6.8%. Judging from the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as comprehensive economic growth and urban unemployment rate, China’s economy will maintain a steady, steady and stable momentum in the coming period. However, it should be noted that some hidden worries still exist, and domestic structural contradictions are still prominent. The downward pressure on economic growth, the slower growth of residents’ income, and the continued high growth of total retail sales of consumer goods are under pressure.

From the perspective of the non-ferrous metals industry, the production and operation of China’s non-ferrous metals industry is generally stable. In the first half of 2018, the non-ferrous metals industry realized a total profit of 79.82 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. Affected by the warming of consumption, stricter environmental protection and supply-side reforms, the supply of non-ferrous metals continued to maintain a stable operation. However, the profit of non-ferrous metal enterprises dropped significantly year-on-year, especially for aluminum smelting enterprises to reproduce losses or meager profits. As the Sino-US trade friction continues to heat up, the international trade environment of the whole industry, especially aluminum exports, is deteriorating, and exports are under great pressure. In addition, the continued decline in investment in the non-ferrous metals industry has not changed.

Non-ferrous listed companies make good profits

In the first half of 2018, due to the increase in product prices, many non-ferrous listed companies made good profits. In the semi-annual report released by Chinalco recently, the company achieved operating income of 82.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 10.24% year-on-year; total profit was 1.93 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year; asset-liability ratio was 66.72%, lower than the beginning of the year. 0.55 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net cash flow of 6.74 billion yuan, a record high in the past five years. According to industry analysts, as the country’s capacity and environmental protection policies become stricter, non-standard enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market, and supply-side limited production will further improve the market supply and demand relationship and promote the price of alumina and aluminum.

According to China Securities Network, the western mining industry realized operating income of 14.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 5% from the same period of the previous year; realized a total profit of 992 million yuan, an increase of 111% over the same period of the previous year; and realized a net profit of 747 million yuan, compared with the previous year. The growth rate was 128% over the same period. In the evaluation of the first half of the year, Western Mining said that the acquisition of 82.96% equity of Dongdaliang was completed on January 4 this year. In the current period, it will be included in the consolidated financial statements of the company, which will contribute a lot to the company’s profits. The average selling price of lead concentrate, zinc concentrate and copper concentrate increased by 12%, 17% and 16% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

Mingtai Aluminum’s semi-annual report showed that the total operating income in the first half of the year was 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 27.67% over the same period of the previous year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 254 million yuan, an increase of 41.26% over the same period of the previous year. Mintai Aluminum related people said that the performance growth was due to the success of resisting the external unfavorable factors, showing the company’s profitability and corporate vitality.

Non-ferrous industry analysts believe that the third quarter is the peak of the replenishment of various varieties such as cobalt and lithium, optimistic about the price of some small varieties. At the same time, the second half of the year can focus on the development trend of alumina, nickel and other varieties.

Industry boom may decline

Since 2018, China’s copper industry has faced new smelting capacity and production momentum, and the external pressure is facing the complicated and changing international situation of Sino-US trade friction. The overall performance of the copper industry is not as expected. The industrial operation is mainly as follows: Five characteristics: First, the overall decline in industrial investment, but smelting investment is hot, capacity will be further expanded. Second, the output still grows, but the consumption is flat and destocking is slow. Third, the increase in copper mines is limited, the import of scrap copper is limited, and the gap in raw material supply is widening. Fourth, the price is under pressure and the industry’s profitability has dropped. Fifth, Sino-US trade frictions have intensified, and there are many macro uncertainties. It is expected that in the third quarter of 2018, China’s copper industry will still face the imbalance of industrial selection and smelting, the expansion of raw material supply gap, and the upgrading of Sino-US trade. In the short term, the copper industry comprehensive prosperity index is still operating in the “normal” range, but the comprehensive prosperity index maybe Will decline.

In the first half of 2018, the average daily output of electrolytic aluminum was 90,000 tons, down 1.0% year-on-year; the average daily output of alumina was 190,000 tons, down 9.3% year-on-year. Although the overall performance of domestic aluminum major consumption sectors such as construction and transportation is relatively flat, aluminum consumption has continued to grow. At the same time, the company’s independent adjustment of the export market to reduce the impact of Sino-US trade friction, coupled with the sharp depreciation of the renminbi, aluminum exports performed better than expected. From the operating environment in the second half of 2018, the aluminum smelting industry will face many uncertain factors. The domestic aspects include: special treatment plan for coal-fired self-supplied power plants; implementation of air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter in various regions; and speed of projecting of electrolytic aluminum compliance projects. International aspects include: Sino-US trade friction risk; the final US sanctions against Russian aluminum; the progress of the recovery of the Brazilian alumina plant in Hydro.

In 2018, the lead and zinc industry faced double pressure from environmental protection and raw material supply, and the output growth was limited; the intra-industry mining and metallurgical profit differentiation was intensified, and the consumption power was insufficient. The overall operation trend of the industry is mainly reflected in the hot investment in renewable lead production, which drives the growth of industrial investment; the pressure of environmentally-added raw materials supply, the output declines; the primary consumption of the industry declines year-on-year, the end consumption power is insufficient; the trend of lead and zinc prices is different, within the industry The differentiation of mining and metallurgical profits has intensified; the environmental protection requirements have been continuously improved, and the pressure of metal pollution prevention and control in lead and zinc industries has been highlighted. It is expected that environmental protection will remain the focus of lead and zinc industry operation in the third quarter. Production smelting enterprises will arrange production according to actual operation conditions. Consumers will enter lead consumption season or lead consumption. The future development trend of recycled lead industry remains to be seen. Observed. In the short term, the lead and zinc industry will still be in the “normal” range.

It is expected that in the second half of 2018, non-ferrous metal production will still be expected to maintain stable operation. The price of non-ferrous metals continues to fluctuate at the current price level, and production costs rise. However, non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises have achieved significant decline in profit growth, industry fixed asset investment and non-ferrous metal products exports. Still difficult to have obvious improvement.

Russian company Alisher Usmanov is in talks with banks to raise $1.25 billion in early 2019 to build a large mining and metallurgical plant in Russia’s largest undeveloped copper deposit.

Since the Western sanctions imposed four years ago, large-scale green projects in Russia’s energy and mining sectors have slowed down because companies have difficulty obtaining financing from overseas. But with the help of local financing, some large projects are now recovering. Usmanov’s Baikal Mining Company, the operator of the Udokan copper deposit, is betting that global copper demand is strong. Many people have expectations for the demand for copper in the electric vehicle industry.

Valery Kazikayev, chairman of the board of Baikal Mining Company, said that some of Russia’s largest banks have expressed interest in the company’s projects, and he said that negotiations with one of the banks have progressed particularly well. Udokan’s total copper reserves exceed 26.7 million tons and it is one of the largest undeveloped copper mines in the world. However, since its discovery in 1949, the mine has been a virgin land because of the lack of technology that is suitable for the unique ore that is difficult to mine.

Before the financial crisis broke out in 2008, Usmanov spent $500 million to acquire the right to develop the Udokan mine from the Russian government. The Baikal Mining Company spent ten years solving the technical challenges of the mine. It also cost $330 million to create a new geological model of the deposit.

This month, Baikal Mining Company is preparing for the construction site, which will combine flotation and hydrometallurgical processes. The Baikal Mining Company will need $1.35 billion to build a plant that will mine 12 million tons of ore a year and produce 130,000 tons of copper.

The company plans to invest $100 million in the project and will target primarily China and other Asian markets. The remaining funds were raised through financing $1.25 billion. The processing plant has an annual ore capacity of 12 million tons and an internal rate of return of at least 21%. Udokan has the potential to expand to 48 million tons and may accelerate its expansion under favorable copper market conditions.

According to Kazikayev, copper is one of the most promising metals, so the schedule for processing the ore capacity of 24 million tons, 36 million tons or 48 million tons per year may be tight.

Two of the world’s four largest mining giants have expressed interest in the project, and three Chinese companies have expressed interest. Baikal Mining Company continues to liaise with it, but the company plans to advance the project on its own.

On September 16th, the PX Commodity Index was 84.00, which was the same as yesterday. It was 17.97% lower than the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 84.41% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic p-xylene market price fluctuated at a high level. The on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled. The Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation. Other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic p-xylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On September 14, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia fell by US$7/ton, and the closing price was US$1345-1347/ton FOB Korea and US$1365-1367/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil futures market price rose in October, reported 68.99 US dollars / barrel, or 0.40 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures prices fell, reported 78.09 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 0.09 US dollars, upstream raw material prices rose slightly, the recent textile industry The market trend is general, and the PX market price fluctuates. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production, and the PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 14th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 78.58%, the PTA price was slightly lower, and the average price of the East China region was 9200-9300. In the vicinity of RMB/ton, the downstream production and sales remained relatively stable and the PTA is still in a state of balance and de-stocking. It is expected that the PX market price will remain high in the later period.

According to LME data, the total inventory of copper metal inventories on September 14 was 225,900 metric tons, an increase of 775 metric tons per day; the total inventory of aluminum metal stocks was 1,046,700 metric tons, a decrease of 4,500 metric tons per day; and the total inventory of aluminum alloys was 13,600 metric tons.

Price trend

The propane commodity index on September 12 was 91.38, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down by 24.98% from the highest point of 121.80 points (2012-03-23) in the cycle, up 93.36 from the lowest point of 47.26 on August 07, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Products: The domestic propane market has risen slightly and the market has stabilized. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong is 5600-5730 yuan / ton. The quoted price is the reference price, and the actual price is based on the actual transaction price. In the morning, the international crude oil surged, which formed a certain support for the market mentality, and the downstream industry’s wait-and-see attitude gradually loosened. Manufacturers are relatively smooth today, and there is no pressure on stocks. Overall, the performance of the domestic propane market remained firm, the weather turned cooler, the market demand increased, and the market formed support.

Industry chain: The market for liquefied petroleum gas is stable today. Under the pressure of high prices, the downstream procurement strength has weakened, the terminal inventory has become saturated, and the market atmosphere has turned weak. Today’s domestic propylene market is deadlocked. The mentality of the production enterprises is still stable, and most of them have no stock pressure under the pressure of stocks, and there is no intention to lower them.

Market outlook: The propane analyst of the business community believes that the current propane price has risen to a high level, the overall inventory of the manufacturers has no inventory pressure, and the downstream market enthusiasm has rebounded. It is expected that the propane market will remain stable at a high level tomorrow.