Sorokin, Russia’s Deputy energy minister, said near the end of Wednesday’s crude oil futures market, Russia is expected to achieve OPEC + production reduction targets by April. Since then, international oil prices have risen in the short run.

Brent’s crude oil futures rose 1.14% in February to break below $61 and ended up 1.12% at $61.32 a barrel.

U.S. oil also rose sharply before closing, with WTI crude oil futures prices reaching $52.40 in February, ending up 0.38% at $52.31 a barrel and expanding to more than 0.4% after closing.

Earlier on Wednesday, U.S. officials released record crude oil production data, and international oil prices fell all the way, almost falling again after two consecutive days of decline.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) released a weekly report showing that crude oil output in the week of January 11 increased by about 200,000 barrels a day from the previous week, reaching a record high of 11.9 million barrels a day; gasoline and refined oil stocks rose for the third consecutive week, and gasoline stocks in the Gulf of Mexico reached an all-time high.

After the data were released, international oil prices fell rapidly, with WTI oil prices falling by 1.5% and distribution oil prices falling by nearly 1% in a day.

Carsten Fritsch, senior commodity analyst at Commerce Bank of Germany, commented that the growth in U.S. crude oil output may mean that OPEC + led by Saudi Arabia and Russia needs to prolong production cuts or even further reduce production.

On the previous day and Tuesday, the international oil price ended two consecutive days of decline, with U.S. oil rising by more than 3%, and oil distribution rose by 2.8%, reaching $60, breaking through the two crossings of $51 and $52.

Following Wall Street news, the article mentioned that mainstream foreign media on Tuesday cited good news from China or expanding the scale of fiscal stimulus as helping to consolidate global oil demand growth. However, analysts believe that oil price increases in the first half of this year are not very sustained, because OPEC’s crude oil demand expectations continue to be lower than the output planned by the organization.

In addition, in addition to increasing supply in the United States, market concerns about the global economic outlook are also putting pressure on the oil market.

The Wall Street article mentioned at the end of last month that the crude oil slump at the end of 2018 was affected by the closure of the U.S. government, higher interest rates, international trade disputes and worries about global economic growth. Most Wall Street agencies expect crude oil to rebound in the first half of this year, with an average annual distribution price of $68-73 per barrel and $59-66 per barrel for U.S. oil. But they warned that oil prices could rise and fall more than expected, with risks including macroeconomic factors such as China’s trade and underestimating the threat of Asian refining.

On Jan. 16, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia fell by $4 per ton, with the closing price of $1052-1054 per ton FOB Korea and $1071-1073 per ton CFR China.

Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 16, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2308 yuan/ton. Overall, the domestic methanol market was slightly weaker, with the price falling by 33.70% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol slightly weakened, the current trading atmosphere is weak, some businessmen mainly wait-and-see. Port market, narrow volatility of futures, increase in arrivals to Hong Kong and local decline in the Mainland dragged, slightly down. Mainland market, continue the regional trend, due to weakening market demand in South China, North China, Shandong, Southwest and other parts of the market, combined with the expectation of enterprise depot, daily decline of 10-50 yuan/ton, other areas temporarily stabilized. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some downstream manufacturers have plenty of stock in the early stage, and the market activity has weakened. Short-term market or narrow-band consolidation.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material methanol narrow finishing, formaldehyde cost support is general, Shandong formaldehyde partial with raw material finishing. Linyi is now around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Focus on the recent start-up of formaldehyde manufacturers in southern Shandong. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable. Towards the end of recent years, the intention of downstream reserve will gradually weaken. At present, considering the relationship between supply and demand, downstream reserve is cautious. Individual warehouse pressures are still high, but the offer is temporarily stable. Most of them have a wait-and-see mentality, while the latter is unstable. Dimethyl ether: The domestic dimethyl ether Market has stabilized all the way, and downstream users are still replenishing on demand. However, the trend of liquefied petroleum gas has fallen sharply in recent days, or the dimethyl ether Market has become negative, mainly in the short term or remains stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives’Viewpoint: On the positive side, the opening of the arbitrage window between the outer market and the far moon is still acceptable in the near future, some of the outer market goods are hedging and the bargaining price of the outer market is slightly upward; on the raw material side, during the heating period in winter, the demand of coal and natural gas market is still acceptable, and the prices are relatively high to provide cost support for methanol; on the other hand, olefins: the current price of methanol is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still good. However, we should pay attention to MTO picking and restarting in China. On the negative side, supply: in the near future, more than 70% of the equipment has been started, and the supply has been improved. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Port: It is known that the recent arrival of goods at the port is concentrated and the stock is abundant; in the near future, some enterprises are facing capital withdrawal and liquidity shortage; demand side: at present, downstream products are not performing well, showing a downward trend, and terminal demand is weakening. 。 Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.

Mining Weekly quoted Bloomberg News Agency as saying that Felix Tshisekedi, a candidate of the Democratic Congo opposition leader, the Alliance for Democracy and Social Progress, won the election “unexpectedly”.

Democratic Congo is the world’s leading producer of battery materials such as cobalt. In addition, the country is also an important producer of copper and tantalum. Therefore, the future situation of the Democratic Republic of Congo has attracted wide attention from mining companies, analysts and metal consumers, including automobile manufacturers and mobile phone manufacturers.

It is believed that the Democratic Congo Government may amend the new mining law in the future, especially the terms of royalties and tax increases, which is good for mining companies such as Glencore and Barrick.

The following are the views of some institutions:

VERISK MAPLECROFT: A new government completely unfamiliar to mining companies

Indigo Ellis, a company analyst, believes that the election results are preliminary and that many mining investors will be watching government policy trends during the transition period in the next two to three months. In his election campaign, Zisekedi publicly stated the tax and powers of the new mining law.

The interest tax rate has risen too fast and even become “anti-investment”, at least he will adopt a policy of encouraging investment.

Barrick Gold: It’s too early!

Graham Shuttleworth, the company’s chief financial officer, said it was too early to say that the election was going smoothly, and that the results had been announced and people accepted the fact. Zisekedi is a politically experienced man.

Leaders, the government is not a party group, but an alliance. The position of Mining Minister is very important.

AFRICA RISK CONSULTING: Mining policy will not change

Shawn Robert Duthie, a senior analyst at the company, believes that Zicekdi will largely maintain the initiatives implemented by his predecessor and will not change the mining law.

RBC Capital Markets: Mine Law may be amended

Tyler Broda, a mining analyst at the bank, said that the Democratic Republic of Congo would eventually emerge from a period of corruption and volatility in mining laws, with the possibility of amending the new mining law introduced last year.

Liberum Capital: Supply is risky

Ben Davis, an analyst at the bank, believes that the Democratic Republic of Congo is a very important producer of copper and cobalt and that supply disruptions may occur and lead to higher copper and cobalt prices.

BMO Capital Markets: Reducing Supply Risks

Colin Hamilton, a mining analyst, said the election results were unexpected and could trigger domestic unrest and affect exports of copper and cobalt.

On Jan. 11, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by $12 per ton, with the closing price of $1050-1052 per ton FOB Korea and $1070-1072 per ton CFR China.

On Jan. 11, the closing price of p-xylene in Europe rose by $12.5 per ton to $969.5-971.5 per ton FOB Rotterdam.

On Jan. 11, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $23.5-25.25 per pound, down $1.125 per pound; high-grade cobalt quoted $22-24.5 per pound, down $2.125 per pound.

On Jan. 8, the Asian acetone market closed at a stable price of $428-431 per ton, CFR China.

As of Jan. 8, Butadiene FOB Rotterdam Spot was 843-847 USD/ton; Butadiene FD Northwest Europe Spot 823-827 Euro/ton

As of Jan. 8, the closing price of Butadiene FOB Korea was $1129-1131 per ton and Butadiene CFR China was $1194-1196 per ton.