This week, the domestic TDI market price rose, stalemate consolidation. Offer at the beginning of the week the average ex factory price of 28514.29 yuan / ton, the weekend average ex factory price of 28557.14 yuan / ton, rose 0.15%, nearly three months of the total decline of 36.72%.

Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic TDI stock shortage, holding the goods to offer a high mentality. Among them, the East China TDI market high consolidation, manufacturers and shippers no inventory, supply the surface tension, the downstream end market before the Holiday Stocking, offer to keep steady, Shanghai goods about 29000-29500 yuan / ton, domestic goods 27700-28000 yuan / ton; North China TDI market consolidation high spot, tight supply, holding the goods without inventory, buying more cautious downstream on-demand single procurement, domestic goods price 27700-28000 yuan / ton, Shanghai goods price 29000-29500 yuan / ton.

From the year 2016, PMI index steadily rose slightly, the first quarter is slightly lower than the 50%, the two or three quarter rose to more than 50%, the fourth quarter rebounded faster, rose to more than 51%, the annual average of 50.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than in 2015, showed the positive factors in the economy increased, stabilize the situation gradually consolidate the good development trend is more obvious.

The effect of structure adjustment in 2016 was. The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech industry PMI index by quarter rose steadily; high energy consuming industries in the first three quarters of PMI less than 50%, slightly higher than the fourth quarter of 50%. Consumer goods industry PMI trend is relatively stable, maintained at more than 51%.

The recent part of the circulation of important production material price and logistics costs continue to rise, bring some influence to the production and operation of enterprises. Production prices continued to rise to reflect changes in supply and demand, the economy pick up, accelerate the promotion of industrial production, promote the enterprise sales revenue, profits gradually improved.

But rising too fast may affect the capacity to process, do not rule out a large number of low efficiency of production may be re started. The rising industry prices will transfer to the consumer side, the cost of living rising residents. The price is expected to rise too strong, will cause excessive speculation, is not conducive to the smooth operation of the market. In 2017 to further consolidate the economic stabilization based on the one hand, on the other hand to seize the supply side structural reform of the main line, speeding up the supply side structural reform, improve the vitality of the micro economy, improving the quality and efficiency of economic development.

The price is always the most sensitive nerve of the market. In 2016, the domestic PC market showing upward trend shock, the annual increase of up to 36.36% year high in December, the reference of East China in the low-end mainstream injection level negotiations in 21200-22500 yuan / ton. This year, the world economic recovery is weak and the domestic economy is facing downward pressure of the environment, China has adhered to the supply side structural reform, domestic PC new capacity put into operation, the RMB exchange rate devaluation and other factors, to varying degrees of impact on the overall supply pattern of the domestic PC market, PC market competition situation, the market offer turbulence.

The first stage (1-2 months): Spring Festival stocking market low stronger shocks

1-2 months in 2016 low prices, East China in the low-end mainstream reference injection level talks in 16300-16600 yuan / ton, but compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, in a narrow range of pull up after the strong side shocks. Before the holiday, crude oil is low, the weak domestic economy have put pressure on the domestic market, trading trading weak, downstream manufacturers Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm is not high, many small Jiancang, but due to the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, domestic and foreign PC production enterprises very price, give the market some support, in the high-end price and cost Huojin support, trader follow the narrow tilt, caution light.

Overall, the overall economic level weak situation based on the domestic market of PC Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm of the poor, the Spring Festival holiday before February, the downstream plant basically ready, manufacturers have a holiday from the city, the market demand dropped, basically there is no market price in the market, but the industry for the market outlook is expected to improve, traders reluctant to sell low-cost, newspaper how to maintain the high finishing concussion disc. The vacation of downstream work slow, once restricted market trading, but considering the spot supply, coupled with the late part of the device storage maintenance plan, positive support the market mentality, industry market outlook is expected to increase upward, offer holding firm, cautious trading.

Stock market without a solid foundation before the Spring Festival period of price rise or limited polyolefin

Abstract: it is understood that since the end of last year, or about 10% of the peaks of polyolefin prices, stock turnover slowed synchronization. Since last December, the seasonal demand into the off-season, the continuous rise in price which produced downstream supply of high resistance to.” The industrial futures analyst Pan Zengen told futures Daily reporter, in the price adjustment in the state, “do not buy or buy up” mentality has also exacerbated the gloomy atmosphere of the spot market. See details []

The oil and gas market rebalancing difficult market reform will further promote

Abstract: in January 12th, Chinese CNPC Research Institute of economics and Technology (hereinafter referred to as “the Research Institute”) issued the “2016 domestic and international oil and gas industry development report”, to make judgments on the oil and gas industry in the future 5 years development trend. See details []

Catechol, epichlorohydrin, spandex anti-dumping measures expire in 2017

Abstract: in November 7, 2016, Commerce announced: China’s imports of catechol, the autocorrelation of different countries and regions of epichlorohydrin and spandex products anti-dumping measures will expire next year. See details []

Years ago the supply and demand pressure still PP prices due to long-term supply pressure suppression in

Abstract: since January, the holiday tired library and the downstream receiving goods will lower than expected that the combined effects of PP1705 contract for 3% recent highs, due to the overall improvement of commercial atmosphere to stabilize rebound. See details []

Local trends

The basic chemical sector earnings down pesticide products are expected volume and price

Abstract: as of November 2016, the chemical industry chemical fiber manufacturing industry to reduce the inventory turnover days to 19.3 days, the stock fell to 36 billion yuan scale, inventory turnover and inventory scale were decreased to the lowest level since 2012. Low inventory level is expected to exacerbate market supply tension, promote the rising prices of chemical fiber products. See details []

Three breakthroughs in China’s value-added fertilizer industrialization

Abstract: in January 13th, held in Beijing the fertilizer value of Industrial Technology Innovation Alliance Annual Meeting 2016 news: 2016, value-added fertilizer in the national key project development plan, the national chemical industry standards and industry development to achieve a major breakthrough. See details []

The article by Gade chemical network editing, reproduced please indicate the source.

“Stocking market without a solid foundation before the Spring Festival period of price rise or limited polyolefin

“Oil and gas market rebalancing difficult market reform will further promote

“Catechol, epichlorohydrin, spandex anti-dumping measures expire in 2017

“Years ago, supply pressure still PP the price for long-term supply pressure suppression in

“India tire market two feudal lords vying for the throne who can have the last laugh?

“Three breakthroughs in China’s value-added fertilizer industrialization

Compared to polypropylene, acrylic acid and octanol market weakness, propylene market performance is relatively good, prices rose slightly. This week China propylene oxide spot supply is tight, the downstream demand is stable, market prices continue to rise slightly, the mainstream discussion at 10400-10450 yuan / ton. The main factories in North China is not high, no inventory pressure, coupled with the need to follow up the normal market just downstream, steadily rose slightly, the mainstream discourse rose to 10400 yuan / ton. Controllable spot supply pressure in Shandong area, the local transportation slow recovery in downstream, just to be part of normal procurement, to discuss the mainstream price in the 10300-10400 yuan / ton.

The overall market is especially bad downstream of propylene, polypropylene futures market prices, polypropylene market decline is difficult to stop, the powder factory profit situation is not optimistic. At present, the main factors restricting the propylene market still lies in the downstream polypropylene, so the market can not escape or decline.

Propylene downstream operating r

in 2017, “cool”, from propylene market focus on price dropped to 8000 yuan / ton. The main factors of propylene market decline is the downstream market demand weakened, while the price of crude oil fell on Monday and Tuesday the bad market mentality, Shandong propylene mainstream price fell to 7650-7700 yuan / ton, the market fell to 7250 yuan / ton.

Downstream market trend

Since the beginning, downstream products of propylene polypropylene powder, acrylic acid and octanol market have different degrees of decline. As of now, the polypropylene powder Market in Shandong mainstream transaction price from 8500-8600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month fell to 8250-8230 yuan / ton. Octanol from the East China market 7550-7650 yuan / ton fell to 7300-7350 yuan / ton. Acrylic acid market of East China from 11000-11500 yuan / ton fell to 10800-11000 yuan / ton.

A substantial decline in the market price of polypropylene, mainly affected by the impact of futures prices continued to decline and sluggish downstream demand, the polypropylene futures prices fell below 5300 on Tuesday after less than 5270 near the support, the overall weak downward trend. In addition, overnight crude oil prices fell sharply, polypropylene powder market continues steady profits, discuss the market trading atmosphere deserted, weak. Downstream factory cautious purchasing, trading volume. Octanol market volatility continues weak, some factories of late transprovincial transportation deposit fears, shipping more positive, more low-cost trading market in Shandong. Acrylic finishing, weak market trading volume to discuss the weak light. Part of the terminal users also exist before stocking the plan, but many are still waiting for the time.

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At the same time, as the world’s second largest oil consumer Chinese in order to make up for its crude oil production continued to decline in the supply gap, will increase imports of crude oil overseas. In this case, domestic dependence on foreign oil continues to rise sharply.

“The current China dependence on foreign oil has more than 62%, to 65%.” Zhou Dadi told reporters zhengbao.

The organic structure is expected in 2016 this figure had reached 65%.

However, Zhou Dadi believes that the degree of dependence on foreign oil and without a clear safety limit.

“Although the dependence degree is higher, the lower the degree of security, but how high is the limit? No formula can be proved. Or to see the international situation and geopolitics. Overall, the import a large number of risk factors to prepare and face more. At present, we still have to encourage saving, against waste.” Zhou Dadi said.

By the large scale production oil drag, in 2016 the total output of domestic crude oil will decline significantly. According to preliminary statistics information, 2016 domestic crude oil production fell to 2 tonnes or.

In the industry view, a major cause of China crude oil production decline is high cost. According to the agency released data show that China crude oil production cost roughly 45-50 dollars / barrel, higher than the global average production cost. In this case, crude oil imports relatively more economic benefits.

From this perspective, even if OPEC policy support, the international oil firm above $50 to meet the cost of domestic crude oil production, but still not enough to stimulate domestic oil production again.” Information Analyst Gao Jian Zhengbao told reporters, on the one hand, the conventional wells shut down after the restart there is technical difficulty; on the other hand, the four major domestic oil enterprises to cope with the price of winter, has been drastically reduced upstream investment, even from the organizational structure and personnel changes to make adjustments, such as employee diversion or early retirement, oil unit independent contract operation.

“There is a relationship between the yield and the cost of oil, oil prices: the era of high oil prices, high cost and the difficulty of exploitation of the oil will be collected, but the lower oil prices, the marginal cost of high oil exploitation more losses. In the past, “can only increase production, can not cut” pressure on state-owned oil, but now the oil companies face low oil prices also began to pay attention to economic benefits, not in order to increase the production cost. In this case, the marginal capacity adjustment is a very natural thing.” NDRC Energy Research Institute, former director Zhou Dadi yesterday told reporters zhengbao.

In this regard, a Petroleum Group insiders to Zhengbao reporter explained: the development idea of Daqing a few years ago is 40 million tons, the cost does not appear in the era of high oil prices. But after oil prices fell cliff type, this problem is very prominent, this is the last few months before losing so many reasons why. In the era of high oil prices, the cost of sacrifice to ensure production, but the era of low oil prices is not sustainable.

Of course, shut in is not so simple, enterprises should consider the replacement rate, related indicators will be assigned to Daqing. Many factors to consider.” Above the oil sources said.

The degree of dependence on foreign oil or rose to 65%

official disclosure of the latest data show that in 2016 the domestic two benchmark oil – Daqing and Shengli oil field respectively, crude oil production 36 million 560 thousand tons and 23 million 900 thousand tons, compared to 2015 decreased by 1 million 826 thousand tons and 3 million 200 thousand tons, the total output of more than 5 million tons. Learned from relevant sources, this year’s two oil production capacity will not stop the pace, but the decline narrowed.

Considering the recent domestic oil production is not large, the decline in yield of two large oil field will bring the total domestic production of crude oil fell. In order to make up for the supply gap, Chinese will increase imports of crude oil overseas. In this case, domestic dependence on foreign oil continued to rise sharply, is expected to last year may have climbed to 65%.

Yield adjustment and cost